The Fog Of War: Reassessing The Afghan Conflict

The war in Afghanistan was the longest war in American history. It lasted for 20 years and cost the lives of 2,461 American personnel. The war began in 2001 when the US and its allies invaded the country and overthrew the Taliban regime, which had been providing a safe haven for al-Qaeda, the terrorist group behind the 9/11 attacks.

Since then, the war has dragged on, with the Taliban waging an insurgency against the Western-backed government and international coalition troops. Despite billions of dollars spent and hundreds of thousands of casualties on all sides, the conflict remained a stalemate. The US and the Taliban signed a peace deal in 2020, which led to the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by September 2021. However, the Taliban quickly resumed attacks and rapidly seized control of the country, leading to the collapse of the Afghan government.

The war in Afghanistan has been a complex and challenging conflict, with shifting objectives and strategies. Some argue that the US should have ended the war sooner, as it became clear that the Afghan government and security forces were unable to maintain control. Others believe that a continued US presence was necessary to prevent the return of the Taliban and to protect human rights and security gains made since 2001.

With the Taliban now in power, Afghanistan faces a worsening humanitarian crisis, with basic rights and freedoms being rolled back and the country becoming increasingly isolated from the international community. The future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, and the legacy of the war will continue to be debated for years to come.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 ousted the Taliban regime, which had refused to hand over Osama bin Laden following the 9/11 attacks.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was a response to the 9/11 attacks, perpetrated by al-Qaeda, a terrorist network led by Osama bin Laden. The US demanded that the Taliban regime, which had provided bin Laden with a safe base of operations, hand over the terrorist leader and expel al-Qaeda militants from Afghanistan. When the Taliban refused, the US, alongside the UK, launched Operation Enduring Freedom on October 7, 2001, marking the first phase of the War in Afghanistan.

The invasion consisted of American, British, Canadian, and Australian forces, with other countries providing logistical support. The coalition forces were aided by the Northern Alliance, an anti-Taliban coalition that had been locked in a losing fight with the Taliban during the Afghan Civil War. The Northern Alliance forces, led by General Mohammed Fahim, were crucial in the invasion, as they had knowledge of the local terrain and had been fighting the Taliban for years.

The invasion made rapid progress, as the coalition captured Kabul on November 13 and toppled the Taliban regime by December 17, 2001. However, most members of al-Qaeda and the Taliban leadership, including Osama bin Laden, escaped into neighbouring Pakistan or retreated to remote regions within Afghanistan. The swift fall of the Taliban regime was a surprise to many, including the US Central Command, which had believed that the Taliban would retain control of Kabul well into the following year.

The invasion was followed by the Bonn Conference in late November 2001, which led to the creation of the Afghan Interim Authority and the Bonn Process, which aimed to establish a new constitution and government in Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai was selected to lead the interim government.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan achieved its initial goal of ousting the Taliban regime and dismantling al-Qaeda's base of operations in the country. However, the invasion marked the beginning of a 20-year-long war, as the Taliban regrouped and waged an insurgency against the US-led coalition and the Afghan government.

The Taliban's resurgence and control of most of Afghanistan as of 2021, despite the presence of US and NATO forces for two decades

The Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun Islamic fundamentalist group, displayed remarkable resilience in the face of US and NATO forces. They regrouped and rebuilt their strength in the years following their initial ouster in 2001, taking advantage of the mountainous terrain and support from certain segments of the population. The Taliban's ability to adapt and persist despite military setbacks played a crucial role in their eventual resurgence.

Furthermore, the Taliban exploited the weaknesses and divisions within the Afghan government and security forces. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) struggled with corruption, poor leadership, and a lack of cohesion, making them vulnerable to Taliban attacks. The Taliban effectively leveraged this disarray to their advantage.

Additionally, the Taliban benefited from support and safe havens in neighbouring Pakistan. They operated from sanctuaries in the border regions, making it difficult for US and NATO forces to completely eradicate their presence. Pakistan's role in providing logistical and financial support to the Taliban, despite official denials, has been a significant factor in the group's resurgence.

Moreover, the US and NATO forces made strategic missteps that inadvertently aided the Taliban. The focus on nation-building and counterinsurgency operations, rather than direct confrontation with the Taliban, allowed the group to regroup and expand their influence. The US and NATO's failure to adequately address the underlying issues fuelling the insurgency, such as corruption and poor governance, also contributed to the Taliban's resurgence.

The Taliban's strategic approach, including their ability to exploit the local population's grievances and tap into support networks, further strengthened their position. They effectively utilised propaganda and leveraged the growing discontent with the Afghan government and the presence of foreign forces.

The signing of the Doha Agreement between the US and the Taliban in February 2020, which outlined a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops, also played a significant role. The agreement emboldened the Taliban and signalled to their fighters that military victory was within reach. The US decision to adhere to the withdrawal timeline, despite the fragile security situation, created a power vacuum that the Taliban quickly filled.

The Taliban's effective use of propaganda and information warfare cannot be understated. They capitalised on the uncertainty and fear surrounding the US withdrawal, spreading disinformation and exploiting the psychological advantage they gained as they made territorial gains.

Finally, the Taliban's strong central leadership and cohesive command structure contributed to their success. The group's ability to maintain unity of purpose and coordinate their military campaigns was a key factor in their resurgence and eventual takeover of Afghanistan.

In conclusion, the Taliban's resurgence and control of most of Afghanistan by 2021 resulted from a combination of their resilience, effective strategies, and the missteps made by the US and its allies. The group capitalised on local grievances, exploited support networks, and took advantage of the power vacuum created by the US withdrawal. The Taliban's resurgence underscores the complexities of counterinsurgency and the challenges faced by foreign powers in imposing stability in Afghanistan.

The human rights violations and reversal of democratic gains under Taliban rule, including restrictions on women's rights and education

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has resulted in a reversal of democratic gains and numerous human rights violations, with women and girls suffering the most.

Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in August 2021, they have imposed severe restrictions on the rights of women and girls to education, work, and free movement. Girls have once again been barred from secondary schools, and in December 2022, the Taliban prevented women from attending universities and ordered NGOs to stop their female staff from working until further notice. The Taliban have also banned women from parks, gyms, and bathhouses. These actions indicate a regression of any gains made in liberal and democratic rights and freedoms over the last twenty years.

The Taliban's restrictions on women's education are not limited to public schools and universities. In December 2022, some primary schools in Kabul informed female staff that they should no longer report to work, indicating that classes for girls might not resume after the winter break. The Taliban's minister for higher education, Neda Mohammad Nadeem, claimed that the problem was propriety, citing issues with female students' clothing and accommodations. However, these explanations were puzzling, given that millions of Afghan women work on farms and face no such restrictions.

The Taliban have also targeted human rights defenders, arbitrarily arresting three prominent women activists in November 2022. Additionally, they have decimated the system of protection for those fleeing domestic violence and contributed to a surge in child, early, and forced marriages. The Taliban have broken multiple pledges to respect human rights and women's rights, bringing widespread condemnation and imperiling international efforts to address the country's humanitarian crisis.

Furthermore, the Taliban's rule has been marked by a culture of impunity, with members of the de facto authorities carrying out human rights violations with no accountability. UNAMA recorded 2,106 civilian casualties, with 700 killed and 1,406 wounded. The report also documented arbitrary arrests, detentions, torture, excessive use of force, and extrajudicial killings. The Taliban have also limited dissent by cracking down on protests and curbing media freedoms, including the arbitrary arrest of journalists.

The Taliban's actions have had a devastating impact on the rights and freedoms of Afghans, particularly women and girls, erasing the advances made over the past two decades.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, ending its longest war, and the subsequent evacuation of over 120,000 people

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 marked the end of America's longest war, concluding a two-decade conflict that began in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The evacuation efforts were vast and chaotic, with over 120,000 people airlifted out of Kabul in a matter of weeks.

The decision to withdraw was made by President Biden, who defended his stance, stating that the US had achieved its objectives against Al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden. Biden argued that the war had strayed from its initial mission and that the US could not transform Afghanistan into a modern democracy. He also emphasised the human cost of the war, asking: "How many more [lives] are you willing to risk?".

The evacuation process was not without criticism, however. Some argued that the Biden administration should have started the evacuation sooner, as the Taliban's swift gains took many by surprise. The Taliban's resurgence has also raised concerns about the future of Afghanistan, with the group having a history of human rights abuses, particularly against women and minorities.

The US withdrawal left a power vacuum, which the Taliban quickly filled. In the final weeks of the US presence in Afghanistan, the Taliban made rapid territorial gains, eventually seizing Kabul and declaring victory on August 15, 2021. This prompted a rush to the airport as thousands tried to flee the country, leading to tragic scenes of desperation.

The evacuation efforts were a collaborative international endeavour, with several countries launching operations to airlift their citizens and vulnerable Afghans. The US alone evacuated about 82,300 people from Hamid Karzai International Airport, and the total number of evacuees exceeded 120,000. The operation was not without tragedy, however, as 13 US service members and dozens of Afghans were killed in an attack by ISIS-K on August 26.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had a lasting impact, with questions raised about the future of the region and the effectiveness of Western intervention. The evacuation itself was a massive undertaking, demonstrating international cooperation in the face of a rapidly deteriorating situation.

The future of Afghanistan and the potential for it to become a terrorist safe haven once again, impacting regional stability

The future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, with the country facing a large-scale humanitarian crisis, economic collapse, and the reversion of rights and freedoms. The Taliban takeover threatens to roll back advances in women's rights and could once again turn the country into a terrorist safe haven.

The Taliban's relationship with al-Qaeda remains a concern, with the Taliban providing continued haven and safety within the country. However, the Taliban has shown interest in restraining al-Qaeda from attacks against the US and its allies. The Taliban's own incentives to support international terrorism are low, and US intelligence capabilities have improved since 9/11, making an expansive safe haven comparable to the pre-9/11 period unlikely.

The Taliban has also been working to neutralize ISIS-K and has successfully eliminated some of its leaders. However, ISIS-K still conducts high-profile attacks and has demonstrated signs of integration into a strong transnational network. The group has received funding and guidance from ISIS branches in Iraq, Syria, and Somalia, and it provides direction to operatives globally.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has made intelligence collection and counterterrorism operations more difficult. Without troops in the area and local contacts, the US will have less intelligence on terrorist activities and less ability to prevent al-Qaeda from establishing training camps. The removal of US forces means that attempts to collect intelligence, disrupt camps, and interdict the flow of illicit money are now more challenging.

To mitigate the threat of Afghanistan becoming a terrorist safe haven, the US should communicate to the Taliban through a dedicated intelligence channel that any attacks on the US or its core interests by the Taliban's allied terrorist groups will result in the loss of protections under the Doha agreement and major consequences. The US should also maintain the international coalition of withholding full normalization of ties with the Taliban and other terrorism-related sanctions. Additionally, the US should beef up counterterrorism-specific intelligence analysis capabilities and expand the Rewards for Justice program to generate leads.

While the risk of an al-Qaeda comeback is real, Afghanistan's reversion to its pre-9/11 role as a safe haven for jihadi terrorism is unlikely, given the Taliban's own incentives, al-Qaeda's weakness, and improvements in US intelligence and homeland security. However, the US must remain vigilant and maintain a strong counterterrorism capacity to prevent Afghanistan from becoming the center of the global jihadi movement again.

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