Iran-Bahrain Conflict: Is War Imminent?

Bahrain and Iran have had a strained relationship since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, with disagreements over geopolitical issues such as the interpretation of Islam, the Awakening of the Islamic world, and relations with the US and other Western countries. Iran has also been critical of Bahrain for hosting the US Fifth Fleet within the Persian Gulf.

In 2016, Bahrain severed diplomatic ties with Iran, accusing it of interference in Saudi internal affairs. However, in 2024, Bahrain restored diplomatic relations with Iran.

Bahrain has long accused Iran of inciting Bahrain's Shia Muslim majority against the Sunni monarchy. In turn, Iran has denied accusations of interference in Bahrain's domestic affairs.

In 2024, Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa expressed his interest in resuming diplomatic relations with Iran. However, Iran-backed Bahraini militia groups, such as Saraya al-Ashtar, have continued to carry out attacks, including a drone strike against the southern Israeli city of Eilat in 2024.

Given the complex dynamics between Bahrain and Iran, it is challenging to predict whether Iran will attack Bahrain. While there have been recent efforts to improve relations, the presence of Iran-backed militia groups and ongoing tensions suggest the possibility of an attack cannot be ruled out.

Bahrain's ties with Israel

Bahrain and Israel have had relations since Bahrain's independence in 1971. However, these relations have been strained over the years, with Bahrain joining the Arab League boycott of Israel. In 2005, Bahrain abandoned its boycott of Israel in exchange for a free trade agreement with the US.

In 2017, the King of Bahrain denounced the Arab League boycott of Israel, stating that the kingdom's citizens were entitled to visit Israel. Bahrain recognised Israel's right to exist in 2018, and in 2020, the two countries agreed to establish full diplomatic relations.

The normalisation of relations between Bahrain and Israel has been met with mixed reactions from the international community. While some countries, such as the US, UK, and Germany, welcomed the agreement, others, such as Turkey and Palestine, condemned it.

The agreement between Bahrain and Israel includes provisions for the exchange of ambassadors and the opening of embassies in each country. Additionally, the two countries have agreed to cooperate in various fields, including technology, health, and agriculture.

Despite the normalisation of relations, there have been recent tensions between Bahrain and Israel. In November 2023, Bahrain recalled its ambassador to Israel and suspended all economic relations, citing the country's support for Palestine.

• Bahrain abandoned its boycott of Israel in 2005 in exchange for a free trade agreement with the US.
• The King of Bahrain denounced the Arab League boycott of Israel in 2017, stating that citizens were entitled to visit Israel.
• Bahrain recognised Israel's right to exist in 2018.
• In 2020, Bahrain and Israel agreed to establish full diplomatic relations, including the exchange of ambassadors and the opening of embassies.
• The normalisation of relations has received mixed reactions, with some countries welcoming it and others condemning it.
• Recent tensions between Bahrain and Israel led to the recall of the Bahraini ambassador and the suspension of economic relations in November 2023.

Iran's claims to Bahrain

Iran has a long history of claiming Bahrain as its territory. In 1957, Iran's parliament passed a bill declaring Bahrain to be the country's fourteenth province, known as Mishmahig. This claim was based on Bahrain's history as a prominent part of the Persian Empire and Iran's defeat of the Portuguese and subsequent occupation of the Bahrain archipelago for centuries.

The Al Khalifa, the ruling family of Bahrain since the eighteenth century, has shown loyalty to Iran on several occasions, especially during disputes with the British in the nineteenth century. In return, Iran reserved two seats for Bahrain in its parliament from 1906 to 1971, further reinforcing its claim over the territory.

In 1970, a UN-administered plebiscite was conducted, and the majority of Bahrainis, both Sunni and Shiite, voted for Bahrain to remain an independent Arab state. Iran recognised the outcome and officially abandoned its claim over Bahrain in March 1970.

However, in recent years, amidst public unrest in Iran and improving relations between Bahrain and Israel, Iran has begun laying claims to Bahrain once again. This has caused concern and been seen as a threat to Bahrain's sovereignty.

Bahrain's Shiite majority

Bahrain has a Shiite majority, with estimates suggesting that Shiites make up around 55-60% of the country's Muslim population. However, the country is governed by the Sunni Al Khalifa family, who arrived in Shia Bahrain from Najd in 1783.

The Shiite majority in Bahrain has historically faced discrimination and been subject to institutionalised government policies that favour Sunnis. High-ranking official positions are predominantly held by Sunnis, and the Shiite majority faces worse economic circumstances.

In 2011, Bahrain witnessed a popular uprising, with protesters demanding political and constitutional reform. The government portrayed the uprising as a Shiite revolt inspired by Iran, and Saudi and UAE forces were deployed to Bahrain to guard strategic sites.

Since the uprising, the government has continued to link Iran to attacks and plots in Bahrain, and there have been allegations of Iranian support for Bahraini dissidents. Iran, on the other hand, has denied these claims and criticised the Bahraini government for its treatment of the Shiite population.

The condition of Sheikh Isa Qasem, the spiritual leader of Al Wefaq, Bahrain's biggest opposition society, is a sensitive issue between the government and the Shiite population. Qasem, who is in declining health, has been under house arrest and was permitted to visit the UK for treatment in 2018.

Iran's support for Bahraini dissidents

In 1981, Bahrain foiled an attempt by the Islamic Front, a radical Shiite organisation, to take over police stations, ministries and radio stations, which was allegedly backed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This led to a crackdown by the Bahraini government, with hundreds of Islamic Front members and sympathisers arrested and convicted.

Bahrain has a majority-Shiite population, and Iran's state religion is Shia Islam. Following the 2011 protests in Bahrain, Iran expressed strong support for the demonstrators. The Bahraini government saw this as an attempt by Iran to overthrow their Sunni government and crackdowns on the Shia population ensued, with thousands jailed.

Iran has been accused of supporting Bahraini dissidents and providing them with military training and financial support. In 2019, a court in Bahrain sentenced 139 people to prison for forming terrorist groups backed by Iran, and 169 people were arrested. Bahrain has also repeatedly seized what it says are weapons and explosives shipments from Iran intended for the opposition.

In addition, influential Iranians have made statements claiming that Bahrain is part of Iranian territory, with a former speaker of the Majlis declaring that Bahrain was "the fourteenth province of Iran until 1970." This has exacerbated tensions and mistrust between the two countries.

While there is little evidence of close ties between the mainstream opposition in Bahrain and Iran, some marginal pockets within the anti-government camp may be receiving assistance, including moral and media support, and potentially military aid, from Tehran. Iran's support for Bahraini dissidents has contributed to strained relations between the two countries and has been a source of concern for Bahrain and its allies.

Bahrain's crackdown on opposition

Bahrain has a history of targeting opposition groups, particularly those from the Shiite majority, who make up around 70% of the country's citizens. In 2012, the Bahraini government banned all protests and threatened legal action against groups supporting demonstrations and clashes. This was an attempt to counter the anti-government uprising, which had resulted in the deaths of over 50 people since February 2011.

The government's crackdown has not been limited to protest bans and the dissolution of opposition groups. Bahrain has also targeted prominent human rights advocates and activists, including Nabeel Rajab, who was detained on charges of spreading "false news", and Zainab al-Khawaja, who fled to Denmark after being released from prison on humanitarian grounds.

Additionally, Bahrain has stripped the citizenship of leading Shiite clerics, such as Sheikh Isa Qassim, accusing them of creating sectarian atmospheres and forming groups that follow "foreign religious ideologies". These charges are often seen as a veiled reference to Shiite powerhouse Iran, which Bahrain and its Gulf allies view as a destabilising force in the region.

The crackdown on opposition has also extended to the economic sphere, with Bahrain denying "Good Conduct Certificates" to opposition figures. These certificates are required for various aspects of life, such as employment and university admission, and their denial effectively hinders the ability of these individuals to support themselves and their families.

The international community, including the US State Department and human rights organisations, has condemned Bahrain's actions. However, the country's close ties with Saudi Arabia and other Western allies have resulted in continued support for the Bahraini government, despite concerns over human rights abuses and the suppression of dissent.

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