Lexi Webster
El Niño, a climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are warmer than usual, is returning to Australia. This event is associated with drier and warmer conditions, which can increase the risk and severity of bushfires, intensify heatwaves, and contribute to droughts. The Bureau of Meteorology declared the latest El Niño event in September 2023, and it ended in April 2024. It was amplified by climate change, pushing global temperatures to new heights. The burning of fossil fuels, coal, oil, and gas is supercharging Australia's climate and disturbing natural climate phenomena. While the recent El Niño has ended, the World Meteorological Organization predicts a potential swing back to a La Niña event in the coming months.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| El Niño event in Australia | Underway in 2023, ended in April 2024 |
| Cause | Warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific |
| Effects | Reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures, drought, bushfires, heatwaves |
| Climate change influence | Intensified the effects of El Niño |
| La Niña | Opposite of El Niño, with cooler and wetter conditions |
| La Niña occurrence | Follows El Niño, occurred for three consecutive years before El Niño in 2023 |
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What You'll Learn
El Niño's impact on Australia's rainfall
El Niño is a climate cycle phase that causes sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to rise significantly. This shift in temperature causes rainfall patterns to change, resulting in less rainfall in eastern Australia and more rainfall in the central and eastern Pacific.
El Niño events are typically defined when SOI values fall below -8 and NINO3.4 temperatures are more than 0.8 °C above average. Events that maintain values close to these thresholds are generally classified as moderate to weak, while those that greatly exceed them are referred to as strong. However, the strength of an El Niño event is not always reflected in the intensity of its effects on weather patterns. For example, the 2002-03 El Niño event was relatively weak, yet it caused widespread and significant drought.
El Niño events have a significant impact on Australian rainfall, typically reducing it during the winter and spring, particularly in the eastern and northern regions of the continent. Nine of the ten driest winter-spring periods on record for eastern Australia occurred during El Niño years. The Murray-Darling Basin, for example, experienced a 28% decrease in winter-spring rainfall during El Niño events since 1900. While drought does not occur during every El Niño event, it is typically associated with them.
The influence of El Niño on rainfall patterns can also vary across different regions of Australia. For instance, during the 1997-98 El Niño event, impacts on rainfall were largely confined to coastal southeastern Australia and Tasmania, while the 2002-03 event resulted in widespread drought. Additionally, regions of southern New South Wales and northern Victoria can experience 15-30% more frost days during El Niño years, which can significantly impact agriculture.
The relationship between El Niño event magnitude and impact is not linear in Australia. Some of the worst bushfire years have coincided with relatively weak El Niño events. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influences Australian rainfall patterns during El Niño events. A positive IOD can further suppress rainfall, leading to widespread below-average rainfall, as observed in September and October 2015.
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El Niño's role in Australia's bushfires
El Niño is a phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, which is characterised by a sustained period of warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This warming causes a shift in atmospheric circulation, leading to a weakening or reversal of the prevailing trade winds. The influence of El Niño is primarily felt in eastern Australia, resulting in warmer-than-usual temperatures and reduced rainfall.
In September 2023, the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia declared that another El Niño event was underway. This came at a time when fires were burning in the Northern Territory, Queensland, and New South Wales, with Sydney experiencing its hottest three consecutive days ever recorded during September.
The return of El Niño events has been linked to an increased risk of bushfires in Australia. El Niño often brings drier and hotter weather conditions, intensifying heat waves and contributing to drought. This can create favourable conditions for bushfires to start and spread more rapidly. The 2019/2020 Australian "Black Summer" bushfires, which were particularly severe and commenced early, have been attributed to the concurrence of El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole, resulting in dry and hot anomalies.
While not all major fires follow El Niño years, the warming effect of El Niño can exacerbate the risk of bushfires. The influence of El Niño on bushfires is complex and varies across different regions of Australia. For example, positive Indian Ocean Dipole events have been found to precondition southeast Australia bushfires, while the Martu regime experiences fewer ignitions during El Niño conditions.
With the return of El Niño in 2023, there were concerns about the potential impact on the fire season in Australia. The warming trend associated with El Niño, combined with the underlying climate change, has the potential to increase the frequency and intensity of bushfires. As grasslands and bushlands dry out due to reduced rainfall, they become more susceptible to burning.
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The relationship between El Niño and climate change
El Niño is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. These variations have an irregular pattern but do have some semblance of cycles. The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as "El Niño" and the cooling phase as "La Niña". The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric oscillation, which is coupled with the sea temperature change.
El Niño events cause short-term spikes in global average surface temperature, while La Niña events cause short-term surface cooling. The relative frequency of El Niño compared to La Niña events can affect global temperature trends on timescales of around ten years. The occurrence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not predictable, but it affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics and has links to higher-latitude regions of the world. ENSO is a single climate phenomenon that periodically fluctuates between three phases: Neutral, La Niña, or El Niño.
The connection between ENSO events and climate change is complicated. However, the CSIRO has shown that both El Niño and La Niña events have become more frequent and intense due to climate change, driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change exacerbates the effects of droughts and floods, and the scientific consensus is that rainfall variability related to changes in the strength and spatial extent of ENSO will lead to significant changes at a regional scale.
In Australia, El Niño events often herald drier and hotter weather, intensifying heat waves, increasing the severity of bushfires, and contributing to drought conditions. The influence of El Niño is primarily felt in eastern Australia, resulting in warmer-than-usual temperatures and reduced rainfall. For example, the 2019/2020 Black Summer bushfires came off the back of a 2018/2019 El Niño event, and 2019 was the hottest and driest year on record for Australia, contributing to the extreme bushfire season.
The latest El Niño, which began in September 2023, was amplified by climate change, pushing global temperatures to new heights. The burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, is supercharging Australia's climate and disturbing other climate phenomena, like sustained periods of warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña).
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How El Niño affects Australia's temperature
El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than average. This warming causes a shift in atmospheric circulation, leading to a decrease in rainfall over eastern Australia. As a result, El Niño events often bring drier and hotter weather to the country, exacerbating heat waves, drought conditions, and the severity of bushfires.
During an El Niño year, Australia tends to experience warmer-than-average temperatures, particularly across the southern regions during the second half of the year. This is due to decreased cloud cover, which results in higher daytime temperatures, especially during the spring and summer months. The higher temperatures, combined with lower rainfall, create ideal conditions for bushfires, as dry grasslands and bushlands are more prone to burning.
The impact of El Niño on Australia's temperature can vary depending on the strength of the event and its interaction with climate change. While some El Niño events may be relatively weak, others can be intense, leading to record-breaking temperatures. For example, the 2019/2020 Black Summer bushfires occurred after an El Niño event, and 2019 was recorded as the hottest and driest year in Australia's history, contributing to the extreme bushfire season.
The frequency and intensity of El Niño events are influenced by climate change. The burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, supercharges Australia's climate and disturbs natural climate phenomena like El Niño. As a result, El Niño events are becoming more frequent and severe, posing an even greater threat to Australia's temperature and overall climate.
Looking ahead, with El Niño conditions expected to intensify, 2024 could become the hottest year on record globally. This would further increase the risk of bushfires and droughts in Australia, impacting communities and ecosystems. While the latest El Niño event ended in April 2024, the effects of climate change continue to shape Australia's climate, leading to more unpredictable and extreme weather patterns.
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The influence of El Niño on Australia's drought conditions
El Niño is associated with a sustained period of warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. This occurs when sea surface temperatures in these regions become substantially warmer than average, leading to a shift in atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns. As a result, the heavy rainfall that usually occurs to the north of Australia moves towards the central and eastern Pacific basin.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, of which El Niño is a part, influences year-to-year climate variability in Australia. El Niño events typically bring drier and hotter weather to the country, with reduced rainfall and warmer-than-usual temperatures, particularly in eastern Australia. This can contribute to drought conditions and increase the severity of bushfires.
Historical data supports the connection between El Niño and drought in Australia. Nine out of the ten driest winter-spring periods on record for eastern Australia occurred during El Niño years. For example, the severe droughts of 1982, 1994, 2002, 2006, and 2015 were all associated with El Niño events. Additionally, the 2018-2020 "protracted" El Niño episode was linked to an Australian drought, with positive Indian Ocean dipoles suppressing southern Australia's rainfall.
However, it is important to note that not every El Niño event leads to widespread drought in Australia. The strength of an El Niño event is not directly proportional to its rainfall impacts. For instance, the relatively weak El Niño of 2002-2003 resulted in a widespread and significant drought, while the stronger El Niño of 1997-1998 had more confined impacts on coastal southeastern Australia and Tasmania.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, El Niño is coming back to Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology declared the arrival of El Niño in September 2023.
El Niño is caused by the continuous warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which results in a decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds. This causes a shift in rainfall away from the western Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia and towards the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is associated with reduced rainfall in eastern and northern Australia, particularly during winter and spring. It also brings warmer-than-usual temperatures, intensifying heat waves and increasing the risk of bushfires and droughts.
El Niño is a significant climate driver that influences year-to-year climate variability in Australia. It interacts with climate change, intensifying its impacts and contributing to extreme weather conditions.
El Niño has global impacts on weather, ecosystems, and economies. It can cause warmer and drier conditions in some regions, while leading to wetter conditions and increased flooding in others. El Niño also affects marine life, disrupting the normal movement of water and nutrients in the ocean.
