Bolivia's Stability: A Precarious Balance?

Bolivia has experienced periods of political and economic instability. In 2019, mass protests against irregularities in the presidential election led to the resignation of President Evo Morales, triggering a transitional government. The country has since been working to re-establish political stability, with democratic elections held in May 2020. While Bolivia has demonstrated economic stability compared to its neighbours, it faces challenges such as rising debt, shrinking reserves, and a dependence on primary commodity exports.

Political stability is threatened by mass protests and disputed elections

Bolivia has a history of political instability, with frequent mass protests and disputed elections. The country has a large indigenous population, who make up around two-thirds of the total population, and the exploitation and export of natural resources, as well as coca production, are often points of contention.

In 2019, there were mass protests in response to claims of electoral fraud in the general election. Incumbent Evo Morales was accused of falsifying the results to ensure his victory and avoid a runoff. There were demonstrations and marches across Bolivia, some of which turned violent, resulting in deaths and injuries. Morales denied the allegations and invited international observers to audit the electoral process. However, the opposition rejected the audit, and the subsequent preliminary report from the Organization of American States (OAS) questioned the integrity of the election results and recommended a new electoral process.

The protests continued, with supporters of Morales clashing with opposition groups, and the situation escalated as the military and police forces became involved. Morales, facing pressure from various quarters, eventually resigned and sought political asylum in Mexico. Jeanine Áñez, the second vice-president of the Senate, assumed the role of interim president. This led to further protests, with pro-Morales demonstrators blocking roads and clashing with security forces, resulting in several deaths.

The political crisis continued into 2020, with ongoing demonstrations and strikes against the interim government. The 2020 general election was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused further unrest. Luis Arce of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party was eventually elected president with a landslide victory, but the aftermath of the 2019 crisis continued to cast a shadow. Áñez herself faced protests and criticism for her handling of the situation, and there were ongoing investigations into the violence and allegations of human rights abuses.

Bolivia's political stability has been threatened by these mass protests and disputed elections, which have led to changes in leadership, social unrest, and a loss of trust in democratic institutions. The country continues to grapple with the challenges of addressing social divisions and inequalities while striving for free and fair elections.

Bolivia's economy is vulnerable to external shocks and overdependence on primary commodity exports

Bolivia's economy is highly dependent on the export of natural resources, particularly natural gas, which has supplanted tin and silver as the country's most valuable commodity. This reliance on a single commodity leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks and fluctuations in global commodity prices. For instance, a drastic fall in the price of tin during the early 1980s had a significant impact on the country's economy, as tin was one of Bolivia's main sources of income.

Additionally, Bolivia's economy is closely tied to that of its neighbouring countries, Brazil and Argentina, which are the main importers of its natural gas exports. Any economic downturn or currency devaluation in these countries can have a ripple effect on Bolivia. For example, the recession and currency depreciation in Argentina, along with the tumbling currency in Brazil, have made these countries more competitive in the export market, impacting Bolivia's export sector.

The overdependence on primary commodity exports, particularly natural gas, makes Bolivia's economy susceptible to external shocks. A decrease in global demand or a discovery of new natural gas reserves in other countries can significantly affect Bolivia's revenue from natural gas exports. Additionally, conflicts over the state's role in controlling natural resources and the lack of infrastructure to utilise these resources domestically and internationally have slowed down the country's economic growth.

To address these vulnerabilities, Bolivia needs to diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on primary commodity exports. The country has made some efforts in this direction, such as the nationalisation of natural resources and the incentive of the domestic market. However, exports remain highly concentrated in hydrocarbons, metals, and grains. Bolivia also needs to strengthen its institutions, improve the business climate, and encourage private sector investment to attract more foreign investment and promote economic growth.

The country's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, has been accused of corruption and authoritarianism

Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, has been accused of corruption and authoritarianism. Morales served as the 65th president of Bolivia from 2006 to 2019. He is a Bolivian politician, trade union organizer, and former cocalero activist who led the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party since 1998. Morales was the first president to come from the Bolivia's indigenous majority, and he carried out a radical programme aimed at addressing extreme social divisions and inequalities.

Morales has been accused of corruption and democratic backsliding during his tenure. Critics point to instances where his policies fell short of his environmentalist and indigenous rights rhetoric, as well as his defence of coca production, which contributed to illegal cocaine production. There have also been allegations of creating a narco-state, with Morales accused of turning a blind eye to the drug-trafficking problem and even facilitating it.

In addition to these allegations, Morales has been accused of authoritarianism and eroding democratic infrastructure. Despite a constitutional clause forbidding more than two terms in office, Morales ran for a fourth term in 2019. He lost a referendum in 2016 where Bolivians explicitly rejected amendments that would have allowed this. However, Morales used a legal loophole and a ruling from the Constitutional Court, which is controlled by his party, to legalise his fourth candidacy. This move was met with protests and led to high-ranking officers quitting in protest.

Morales has also been accused of having absolute control over the law-making processes within the state. After losing the referendum, the government imposed elections to legitimise his candidacy within his party, with him as the only option on the ballot. Morales also requested that the electoral branch move the date of the presidential elections, which was approved in a process that took barely twenty minutes. As a result, 72% of Bolivians believed there would be electoral fraud in the 2019 presidential elections.

The accusations of authoritarianism extend to the treatment of indigenous people and the erosion of their rights. Despite coming to power thanks to the indigenous rights movement, Morales' administration has opened up national parks and indigenous territories to highways and oil and gas extraction. Protests by indigenous people against these measures have been met with severe repression from state forces. The Morales administration has been accused of stealing properties on behalf of businesses and promoting extractivist policies that contradict the pro-indigenous rights image that Morales likes to project.

Bolivia has the second-largest natural gas reserves in South America, but there are tensions over their exploitation

Bolivia has the second-largest natural gas reserves in South America, but there are long-running tensions over their exploitation and export. Indigenous groups, who make up around two-thirds of the population, argue that the country should retain control of the reserves, which they view as Bolivia's sole remaining natural resource.

The Bolivian gas conflict, or "Bolivian gas war", reached its peak in 2003, centring on the exploitation of the country's vast natural gas reserves. The conflict resulted in violent confrontations and the resignation of President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada. In 2004, a referendum was held to decide the future of Bolivia's natural gas reserves, and in 2005, a new hydrocarbons law was enacted, increasing the state's royalties from natural gas exploitation. However, protesters, including Evo Morales, demanded full nationalisation of the hydrocarbon resources.

Morales was elected president at the end of 2005 and, true to his campaign promises, nationalised the gas industry in May 2006. He used military force to occupy installations and gave foreign companies six months to renegotiate contracts. Bolivia's actions were similar to those of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, a Morales ally, who had forced contract migrations and retroactive tax hikes on oil majors.

The nationalisation of the gas industry in Bolivia has resulted in the state raising its share of revenues from natural gas exploitation. The government's energy-related revenue increased nearly sixfold between 2002 and 2007. Bolivia exports most of its gas to Argentina and Brazil, but there have been concerns about the impact of economic crises in these countries on Bolivia's economy.

While Bolivia has experienced economic stability and growth, there are mounting challenges, including rising debt, shrinking reserves, and devaluing currencies in its main trade partners. There are also concerns about the tax-free import of goods and the impact of the black market on local businesses. Despite these challenges, Bolivia remains an example of economic stability and growth in the region.

The media landscape is dominated by private entities, with radio being an important source of information

Bolivia's media landscape is largely in private hands, with a high level of ownership concentration. There are nearly 200 privately-owned television stations, but television is not as prevalent in rural areas due to poor reception. As such, radio is an important source of information, with hundreds of radio stations across the country, most of which are regional. As of 2006, Bolivia had over 480 radio stations, and radio, along with newspapers, was the main source of news for Bolivians.

The country also has eight national newspapers, as well as many local ones. Of the national papers, four are based in La Paz, three in Santa Cruz, and one in Cochabamba. The Bolivian constitution protects freedom of the press and speech, and most newspapers take an anti-government stance. Radio stations, both state-owned and private, operate without government censorship, although some restrictions exist. For example, the Penal Code imposes jail time for slandering, insulting, or defaming public officials, with the president, vice president, and ministers specifically protected by the Code.

The history of Bolivian media has been marked by attempts by various governments to censor communication channels employed by the opposition. However, after 1982, with the democratization of Bolivian politics, freedom of the press became more established, and radio and newspapers were guaranteed freedoms that Bolivians had not previously enjoyed. Despite government restrictions, the media experienced a boom in the mid-1980s, with the growth of party politics leading to a concomitant expansion in the communications industry.

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