Bolivia's Political Turmoil: Coup Or Not?

Bolivia's political future has been a subject of debate since the resignation of Evo Morales, the country's first indigenous president, in November 2019. Morales' re-election victory in October 2019 was disputed, with allegations of fraud and subsequent deadly demonstrations. Morales resigned under pressure from the military and the public, leaving a power vacuum and a divided country. The role of foreign actors, such as the US and the Organization of American States (OAS), in Morales' removal has also been questioned. While some view these events as a coup, others see them as a popular uprising against an allegedly fraudulent election. The interim presidency of Jeanine Áñez, who assumed power in a controversial manner, was marked by violent repression and corruption, with Áñez herself being imprisoned and put on trial. The return of Morales' party, the MAS, to power in the 2020 election has not ended the country's divisions, with ongoing right-wing efforts to destabilize the government.

The role of the Organization of American States (OAS)

The Organization of American States (OAS) is an international organization founded on 30 April 1948, to promote cooperation among its member states within the Americas. As of November 2023, 32 states in the Americas are OAS members.

The OAS played a key role in the events surrounding the resignation of former Bolivian President Evo Morales in November 2019. The OAS conducted an audit of the 2019 Bolivian general election, which opposition supporters argued was fraudulent. The OAS report contended that the results were marred by "clear manipulation" and significant irregularities, leading to the 2019 Bolivian political crisis.

The OAS Electoral Observation Mission (EOM) issued a press statement the day after the election expressing "deep concern and surprise at the drastic and hard-to-explain change in the trend of the preliminary results after the closing of the polls". However, critics argue that the OAS allegations were not supported by evidence and that the organization played a role in the destruction of Bolivia's democracy.

The OAS allegations were the main political foundation for the coup claims. Morales agreed to hold a new vote, but protests and opposition continued, leading to his resignation. The OAS called on Bolivia to reform its electoral system and conduct free and fair elections to choose the next government.

The OAS has a stated priority of strengthening democracy in the region. It works to support democratic practices and values and help countries detect and defuse official corruption. The OAS has also been involved in supporting peace processes and promoting sustainable development in member states.

The Bolivian military's involvement

On 10 November 2019, Bolivia underwent a change in government when Evo Morales, the country's first indigenous president, resigned under pressure from the military and the public. Morales had been declared the winner of the 2019 Bolivian general election, but the results were disputed, and the situation escalated into weeks of civil protests and deadly demonstrations.

The Military's Opposition to Morales:

Morales faced opposition from within the military due to several factors. Firstly, Morales had glorified Che Guevara, whose guerrillas had killed 59 Bolivian troops during their insurgency in the 1960s. This action had offended many officers within the armed forces. Additionally, Morales had forced officers to attend the Anti-Imperialist Military Academy, which was led by a convicted former rebel, further alienating the military leadership.

The Military's Refusal to Suppress Protests:

As the protests against Morales intensified, the military refused to suppress the demonstrators violently. The head of the Bolivian Armed Forces, General Williams Kaliman, stated that the military would "never confront the people among whom we live" and that the issue was a "political problem" to be resolved through political means. This refusal to use force against protesters was a significant departure from the military's traditional role and indicated a lack of support for Morales.

The Military's Call for Morales' Resignation:

On 10 November 2019, General Kaliman issued a statement suggesting that Morales should resign to restore peace and stability in the country. This statement carried significant weight and was seen as a pivotal moment in the political crisis. The military's suggestion was not presented as an ultimatum, but the implication of potential action if Morales did not step down was clear.

The Military's Protection of Morales:

Ironically, despite calling for his resignation, the military also provided protection to Morales in the days leading up to his resignation. With civil groups turning against Morales, the military became his only safeguard against violent protesters. However, this protection was not unconditional, and the military ultimately forced Morales to resign to prevent further escalation.

The Military's Role in the Post-Resignation Period:

Following Morales' resignation, the military played a role in maintaining order and stability in the country. General Kaliman announced that the military would conduct operations to "neutralise" any armed groups that attacked protesters, ensuring that the political transition period remained as peaceful as possible.

In conclusion, the Bolivian military's involvement in the events surrounding Morales' resignation was complex and multifaceted. While they initially protected Morales, the military's refusal to support him unconditionally and their call for his resignation played a crucial role in the political crisis. The military's actions were driven by a combination of ideological differences with Morales and a desire to restore stability to the country.

The interim presidency of Jeanine Áñez

On 12 November 2019, opposition senator Jeanine Áñez proclaimed herself interim president of Bolivia, with the backing of the Constitutional Court. This was not without controversy, as her initial appointment was made during a brief legislative session that lacked a quorum, due to a boycott by Morales's party, Movement for Socialism (MAS). Bolivia's Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal then endorsed Áñez's assumption of the presidency, and the MAS ruling party returned most members to both chambers, with some assuming key positions such as Leader of the Senate. They also committed to working with the interim government towards new elections.

Áñez, a qualified lawyer and a fierce critic of Morales, was previously director of the Totalvision TV station and had been a senator since 2010, representing the region of Beni in the National Assembly. As the deputy Senate leader, she took temporary control of the body on 12 November 2019, after Bolivia's vice-president and the leaders of the senate and lower house resigned. This put her next in line for the presidency under the constitution.

Áñez's assumption of the presidential office was supported by Bolivia's Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal, which interpreted, citing articles referring to the presidential succession of the 2001 Constitutional Declaration, that the next person in the succession line assumes the presidency ipso facto despite not having the required quorum, stating that "the functioning of the executive should not be suspended".

Áñez's government began a campaign against Morales's supporters. Newly appointed Interior Minister Arturo Murillo vowed to pursue members of Morales's administration and Áñez's government charged Morales with "terrorism and sedition". Áñez introduced Christian religious symbols into state procedures, a move perceived by The New York Times as directly related to Morales's 14 years of support for Indigenous culture.

In the face of protests against the interim government, Áñez called for police to suppress the protests and maintain order and, on 14 November, issued a decree that would exempt the military from any type of criminal responsibility for killing or injuring protestors, when acting in a "legitimate defense or state of necessity". This decree was later repealed amid widespread condemnation following the Senkata and Sacaba massacres.

On 10 June 2022, a Bolivian court found Áñez guilty of making "decisions contrary to the constitution" and of "dereliction of duty". She was sentenced to 10 years in prison.

The international response

International Reactions

Several countries in Latin America, as well as the United States and the European Union, called for a second round of elections to be held, regardless of the official results. Mexico offered Morales political asylum, which he accepted. The head of the Organization of American States (OAS) said the body "rejects any unconstitutional resolution of the situation" while calling for new elections. The OAS also released a report detailing what it called "deliberate" and "malicious" tactics to rig the election in Morales's favour. The EU reiterated its call for calm and said it was ready to send election observers if requested.

Scholars, Journalists and Politicians

International politicians, scholars and journalists were divided between describing the event as a coup or a popular uprising. Morales's socialist allies backed his claim that he was removed in a coup d'état. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defended Morales, with Lula da Silva saying Latin America has an "economic elite that does not know how to coexist in democracy and with social inclusion of the poorest". Meanwhile, conservative Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro questioned the coup assertion, saying, "The word coup is used a lot when the left loses".

The Interim Government

The interim government, led by Jeanine Áñez, was recognised by high-profile US politicians, including former CIA director and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who praised Áñez and acknowledged her as Bolivia's president.

The question of electoral fraud

The 2019 Bolivian general election was disputed, with incumbent President Evo Morales initially declared the winner. The election took place after a referendum to amend the Bolivian constitution, which limits presidents to two terms, was rejected in 2016. In 2017, the Constitutional Tribunal (TCP) ruled that term limits would not apply, allowing Morales to run for a fourth term.

The election results were disputed, with Morales claiming victory with more than 45% of the vote and a lead of more than 10% over the second-placed candidate, while the opposition claimed fraud. The Organization of American States (OAS), which observed the election, released a preliminary report on 10 November 2019, claiming they had found sufficient evidence of election fraud to warrant new elections. The OAS alleged multiple irregularities, including failures in the chain of custody for ballots, alteration and forgery of electoral material, and data manipulation. They concluded that it was statistically unlikely that Morales had secured the margin of victory needed to win outright.

However, the OAS's findings have been disputed. The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a left-leaning US think tank, rejected the OAS's statistical analysis of election data, arguing that a basic coding error resulted in inexplicable changes in the trend. They concluded that due to Morales's voter base being in more rural regions, the results from peripheral areas received towards the end of the count were more likely to be in his favour. Independent researchers for CEPR also disputed the OAS's claims about irregularities in the late vote count, arguing that the allegations were based on unproven premises. In 2020, a study by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) experts also called into question the alleged election fraud, concluding that it was "very likely" Morales won the October vote by the margin needed to avoid a runoff.

The dispute over the election results led to weeks of civil protests and deadly demonstrations, with police and military forces joining the protests and calling for Morales's resignation. Morales eventually resigned on 10 November 2019, stating that he was resigning to "protect the families" of his supporters. The second vice president of the Senate, opposition senator Jeanine Áñez, then assumed the role of interim president.

Frequently asked questions