Belarus Mobilization: What's Happening And Why?

As of September 2022, Belarus has not officially announced mobilization, despite its close ties to Russia and its support for Russian forces in the war against Ukraine. Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, has denied plans for mobilization, stating that the country is already mobilized and ready to defend itself if needed. However, Belarus has conducted military mobilization exercises near the Ukraine border and has been accused of gathering a significant number of troops and weaponry.

Belarus denies mobilization plans

Belarus has denied plans for mobilization, with State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, stating that the country's existing forces are capable of dealing with any threats. In a meeting with his Russian counterpart Nikolai Patrushev, Volfovich emphasized that the people of Belarus and the country are already mobilized and ready to defend themselves if needed. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko also denied mobilization plans, assuring that mobilization was only taking place in Russia. Lukashenko's regime has been characterized as a co-belligerent in Russia's war, with Belarus providing support to Russian forces and facilitating the transit of troops and weapons. However, Lukashenko has not officially announced mobilization and has abstained from Russia's partial mobilization efforts.

On September 21, 2022, Volfovich commented on rumors that Belarusians may be recalled to active service due to Russia's partial mobilization declaration. He stated that mobilization does not apply to Belarus as the country and its people are already mobilized. He expressed confidence in their readiness to strike back using designated forces, including defense, security, and law enforcement agencies. Volfovich's statement aligns with Lukashenko's assurance that there will be no mobilization in Belarus, specifically denying the possibility of official mobilization despite Moscow's announcement.

Lukashenko's denial of mobilization plans comes amidst tensions with Ukraine and Belarus's role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Lukashenko has silently dragged Belarus into the war against Ukraine, with the country serving as a launchpad for Russia to deploy thousands of troops. Belarus has also conducted military mobilization exercises near the Ukraine border and created a new military command for the southern region bordering Ukraine. Despite these actions, Lukashenko maintains that there will be no official mobilization in Belarus.

In addition to denying mobilization plans, Lukashenko has also ruled out the presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus, dismissing such speculations as "fakes." Belarus has also abstained from voting on allowing Volodymyr Zelensky to give a pre-recorded address at the UN General Assembly meeting, further showcasing its alignment with Russia. However, Belarus has not officially joined Russia in its partial mobilization efforts, and its political analyst, Valer Karbalevich, suggested that Minsk likely won't declare official mobilization.

Lukashenko's role in the war

Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, has been accused of stealing elections, crushing dissent, dismantling democracy, and jailing over 1,300 political opponents. He has been in power for 30 years and is one of the world's longest-serving and most ruthless leaders. Lukashenko has relied heavily on cheap Russian energy and other subsidies and has allowed Moscow to use Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine. He has also agreed to host some of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons.

Lukashenko's regime has continued to silence Belarusian civil society and activists, with journalists, railroad partisans, and political prisoners receiving harsh sentences. There are reports of political prisoners facing widespread abuse in detention facilities, including solitary confinement, forbidden communication with families, and being marked with yellow tags indicating "extremist involvement."

The Belarusian leader has also initiated a rigorous campaign to squash dissent ahead of elections in January 2025, with over 100 people detained in various cities. The crackdown has been aimed at individuals active in apartment building online chat groups, which the government has accused of being part of an "extremist" network.

Lukashenko's actions have drawn condemnation from Western countries, with the UK, EU, and US refusing to recognize him as the legitimate president of Belarus. His regime's role in the war and repression of civil liberties have made him vulnerable, and insiders say his reliance on Russian money is making it harder for him to avoid becoming directly involved in the conflict.

Belarus's military capabilities

In 2017, the IISS estimated that personnel in the armed forces numbered 49,000, with nearly 350,000 reserves. Most soldiers are conscripts serving for a period of 18 months. Belarus's land forces consist of motorised/mechanised vehicular elements, towed artillery, and mechanised/towed MLRS systems. In 2007, the Land Forces consisted of 29,600 soldiers, five artillery brigades and four regiments, two MRL regiments, and 15 SAM brigades, among other units. In the same year, the Air Force and Air Defence Force consisted of 18,170 personnel, including fighter/interceptor bases, fighter-ground attack/training aircraft, and attack and support helicopters.

In 2022, Belarus was reported to be gathering a significant number of troops and weaponry along the Ukraine-Belarus border. However, as of September 2022, Belarus has not officially announced mobilisation, with a top security official stating that the country's existing forces are capable of dealing with any threats.

Belarus's opposition

Tsikhanouskaya has called on the West to react to the recent arrests of opposition figures in Belarus, with over 100 people detained in the last week, according to the Viasna human rights center. The crackdown has targeted individuals active in apartment building online chat groups, which have been accused by the government of being part of an "extremist" network. Belarusian prisons are reportedly overflowing, with cells designed for three inmates housing up to 20 people.

One opposition figure, Vasil Verameichuk, has been detained in Vietnam and extradited to Belarus, where he faces accusations of terrorism and a possible death penalty. Verameichuk is a citizen of Belarus, an opposition activist, and an elected member of the Belarusian parliament in exile. He participated in the mass protests in 2020 against Lukashenko and was arrested for ten days on suspicion of setting fire to the cars of the prosecutor's office. Due to the threat of re-arrest, he emigrated to Ukraine in 2021.

Tsikhanouskaya has also participated in bilateral meetings with high-ranking officials, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to discuss issues such as political prisoners, sanctions against Lukashenko's regime, and visa regulations in Belarus. She has called on Canada to support Lithuania's bid to charge Lukashenko in the International Criminal Court and to formalize a bilateral relationship with her movement.

Belarus's relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia share a land border and have a long history of political and economic cooperation. Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner, and the two countries are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

The two countries have a strategic partnership based on geographic location, close historic and cultural links, and economic ties between Belarusian and Russian businesses. In 1999, the two nations signed the Agreement on the Establishment of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which set out a series of major goals, including ensuring peaceful and democratic development, establishing a single economic and customs area, and pursuing agreed foreign, defence, and social policies.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has sought to maintain influence in the region, and Belarus has become an increasingly important partner for Russia, especially as NATO has expanded eastward. In the mid-1990s, with Alexander Lukashenko coming to power in Belarus, the two countries began a process of integration, which included the signing of a Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation in 1995. This led to the formation of the Union of Belarus and Russia in 1997 and the establishment of a Union State between the two nations in 1999.

However, the relationship between Belarus and Russia has not always been smooth. Belarus has sought to preserve its sovereignty and has, at times, feuded with Russia over economic issues, such as its dependence on subsidised Russian energy, and political matters, such as its refusal to recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two Russia-controlled regions of Georgia.

In recent years, Russia's Vladimir Putin has seized on Lukashenko's weakened position following the 2020 uprising to hasten the two countries' integration. Belarus has provided Russia with strategic advantages in its war against Ukraine, allowing Russian forces to stage their assault on Kyiv from Belarusian territory and hosting Russian nuclear weapons. This has raised tensions with NATO allies to the west, including Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, who are concerned about the widening military cooperation between Minsk and Moscow.

Despite their close relationship, Belarus has not followed Russia in announcing mobilisation during the war with Ukraine. In September 2022, State Secretary of Belarus' Security Council, Aliaksandr Valfovich, stated that mobilisation in Belarus was unnecessary, and the country has not officially announced mobilisation as of November 2024.

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