Exploring Belarus' Nato Status: What's The Current Scenario?

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus has no aspirations to join the European Union but maintains a bilateral relationship with the bloc. It is a member of the CIS, the CSTO, the EAEU, the OSCE, and the Non-Aligned Movement. Belarus has participated in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) Individual Partnership Program since 1997 without joining the alliance. Belarus has not joined NATO because it is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization under the auspices of Russia. Belarus's relations with NATO member states have deteriorated since the 2006 energy conflict with Russia, and the country has been accused of enabling Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Belarus's relations with NATO

Belarus and NATO's history of relations goes back to 1992 when Belarus joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, which was transformed in 1997 into the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. Belarus joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program in 1995, viewing it as an important tool to strengthen cooperation in various areas. Belarus has participated in NATO's Individual Partnership Program since 1997 without joining NATO.

In 2004, Belarus acceded to the PfP Planning and Review Process (PARP) with the main task of developing the framework for military cooperation with NATO. Belarus opened its Permanent Mission to NATO in Brussels in April 1998. The main planning document of Belarus' participation in the PfP was the Individual Partnership and Cooperation Program (IPCP), which was adopted biennially. The first Individual Partnership Program with Belarus was endorsed by the NATO Council in July 1997.

Belarus has not joined NATO because it is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization under the auspices of Russia, and the Security Treaties with NATO regulate the exchange of classified information affecting the interests of sovereign states. Belarus formally announced its accession to the NATO process on 19 January 2004, and in January 2006, Belarus and NATO approved the first package of partnership documents. Tensions between NATO and Belarus peaked after the March 2006 presidential election in Belarus, as Belarus began to move in the Russian direction of policy.

Belarus's relations with EU and NATO member states have deteriorated since. The European Union and the United States have banned members of the Belarusian government from entering their countries following an energy conflict with the Russian Federation in late 2006. Belarus became a NATO partner among 22, and this applies to the modernization and restructuring of the Armed Forces of Belarus under the program of individual partnership with NATO. Belarus is also a member of the Planning and Analysis (IPA), which highlights ways to improve interoperability and develop appropriate opportunities to enhance Belarus' national defense.

In 2014, after the Russian occupation of Crimea, a Belarusian delegation headed by the Head of the International Military Cooperation Department of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense paid a visit to NATO Headquarters in Brussels. NATO Allies have been closely watching the developments in Belarus since August 2020, and the NATO Secretary General has called on the Belarusian authorities to demonstrate full respect for human rights, including freedom of speech and the right to peaceful protest. In November 2021, Allies suspended all practical cooperation, both civilian and military, between NATO and Belarus, while maintaining dialogue as necessary.

In 2021, NATO Allies condemned Belarus for enabling Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and for its ongoing complicity in Russia's war of aggression. NATO Allies have called on Belarus to end its complicity with Russia and return to compliance with international law.

Belarus's relations with Russia

Belarus and Russia have a close relationship, sharing a land border and constituting the supranational Union State. Belarus is Russia's largest and most important economic and political partner, and both countries are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Belarus became an independent country. However, it soon joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council in 1992, which marked the beginning of its relations with NATO. In 1995, Belarus joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program, and in 1997, it began participating in the Individual Partnership Program. In 1998, Belarus opened its diplomatic mission to NATO in Brussels.

Despite these moves towards NATO, Belarus has continued to strengthen its relationship with Russia. In February 1995, the two nations signed the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation, which declared that the two countries shared a common historical experience and laid the foundation for deeper integration. This led to the integration process being launched in April 1996, and the Union of Belarus and Russia was founded a year later. The culmination of this process was the establishment of a Union State between the two nations in December 1999.

In the 2000s, the political integration process between Belarus and Russia began to falter, and disputes arose over the control of the Belarusian transit network. This led to the 2004 Russia-Belarus gas dispute, where Gazprom ceased gas supplies to Belarus. A new gas contract was signed in June 2004, and relations improved. However, in 2020, new tensions arose when Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia, leading to Russia cutting economic subsidies.

Despite these tensions, Belarus has continued to play a key role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, serving as a staging ground for Russian troops and hosting diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine. Belarus has also allowed Russia to bring nuclear weapons onto its soil. As a result, the West has imposed sanctions on Belarus, targeting its banks and central bank, and limiting imports and access to global trade and international funds.

Belarus's relations with the EU

The deterioration of Belarus-EU relations continued in the 21st century, with the EU imposing sanctions on Belarusian officials, businessmen, and several government-owned companies. These sanctions were a result of political repression following mass protests during the 2010 presidential elections, when several members of the political opposition and protesters were imprisoned.

In 2015, the EU suspended most of the sanctions against Belarus, and in 2016, the travel ban imposed on Lukashenko in 2000 was lifted. However, further improvement has slowed due to ongoing human rights violations and the suppression of political opposition in Belarus.

In 2019, Lukashenko made his first official visit to the EU since sanctions ended, meeting with Austria's Sebastian Kurz to discuss the EU's Eastern Partnership program and further economic initiatives. In 2020, following a series of mass protests after a disputed presidential election, the EU announced it would bring in sanctions against Belarusian officials responsible for "violence and falsification".

In 2021, Belarus suspended its participation in the Eastern Partnership and its relations with the EU further deteriorated as the country enabled Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The EU has since adopted a variety of measures in response, including individual and economic sanctions, restrictions on trade, and a SWIFT ban for five Belarusian banks.

While the EU has shown an unwavering commitment to the Belarusian people, relations with the Lukashenko regime remain cold and distant. The EU has increased its support for Belarusian citizens and civil society, but progress is hindered by ongoing human rights violations and political repression.

Belarus's relations with Ukraine

Belarus and Ukraine have historically had a "good neighbourly" relationship, but this has been strained in recent years.

Historical Ties

Ukraine and Belarus have historically had a "good neighbourly" relationship, according to Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. Both countries have cooperated on issues such as mitigating the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster and demarcating their shared border. Belarus has also sought to harmonise its legislation with European standards, a process Ukraine has further advanced in.

Strained Relations

However, in recent years, the relationship between the two countries has been strained. The democratic uprising in Belarus in 2020 caused a fracture in the economic, military, diplomatic, and security relationship between Minsk and Kyiv. Ukraine declined to recognise the official results of the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which sparked an angry response from the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, who accused Kyiv of having sided with the West against him. Lukashenko also repeatedly claimed that Ukraine was part of an insidious plot against him, orchestrated by NATO, Poland, Lithuania, and the West.

The Lukashenko regime was also furious over Kyiv's moral support for the Belarusian pro-democracy movement and its willingness to help Belarusian dissidents. In addition, there was sharp criticism from Belarusian officials over Ukraine's efforts to benefit from Belarus's growing IT industry exodus.

Belarus has also enabled Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russian forces to continue attacking Ukraine by making its territory and infrastructure available.

Future of Relations

Despite the strained relations, there were indications that the war of words between the two countries was beginning to cool off by the end of 2020. Some Belarusian analysts have hinted that Minsk may not have been taking the confrontation very seriously, despite the strong language employed.

Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has also been cautious about adopting pro-Ukrainian positions on key geopolitical issues, such as the 2014 Russian seizure of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, in order to keep a window open for future conversations with Moscow.

With Lukashenko increasingly dependent on Russia, Moscow continues to explore opportunities to increase military pressure on Ukraine via Belarus. However, Lukashenko has long resisted Russian efforts to establish permanent military bases on Belarusian territory.

Belarus's relations with the US

Interstate relations between the United States and Belarus began in 1991 upon the dissolution of the Soviet Union, of which Belarus had been a part. The United States recognised the independence of the Republic of Belarus on 25 December 1991, and three days later, on 28 December, Belarus and the US established diplomatic relations. The US Embassy in Minsk was officially opened on 31 January 1992, and the embassy of Belarus was opened in Washington in 1993.

However, relations have since soured due to accusations by the US that Belarus has been violating human rights. Belarus, in turn, has accused the US of interfering in its internal affairs. In 2008, Belarus expelled the US ambassador along with 30 out of 35 US diplomats. The US has imposed sanctions and visa restrictions on various actors in Belarus, including President Alexander Lukashenko, in response to the repression and human rights abuses in the country.

The US has also criticised Belarus for its role in Russia's war against Ukraine, including by making its territory and infrastructure available to Russian forces. In February 2022, the US suspended its embassy in Belarus following intelligence that the country was preparing to join Russia in invading Ukraine.

Despite the tensions, there have been attempts to improve relations between the two countries. In 2019, the US and Belarus announced they would exchange ambassadors, and in 2020, National Security Adviser John Bolton met with Lukashenko in Minsk to discuss improving relations. However, the fraudulent 2020 presidential election, which sparked massive nationwide protests that were met with violent repression, further strained relations between the two countries.

The US has provided over $1 billion in foreign assistance to Belarus since 1992, including over $2 million in COVID-related assistance during the pandemic. US assistance to Belarus focuses on promoting democratic principles, respect for human rights, and fundamental freedoms, including by supporting independent media and capacity-building for civil society organisations.

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