Belarus: Russia's Vassal State?

Belarus has been described as a vassal state of Russia, with the country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, becoming a vassal of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Belarus is heavily dependent on Russia to keep its economy afloat, with Russian subsidies, mainly in the form of cheap oil and gas, accounting for 10-15% of its GDP. However, the relationship is complex, as Moscow also relies on Minsk as a key transit country for Russian gas. Since 2020, Belarus has become increasingly subordinate to Russia, with Lukashenko relying on Putin's support to crush a popular uprising. In 2022, Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to train in Belarus before invading Ukraine, and in 2023, he was ordered to accept Russian nuclear weapons for the first time since the Cold War.

Belarus's economic dependence on Russia

Belarus has been described as a "vassal state" of Russia, its larger neighbour. Belarus is heavily dependent on Russia to keep its economy afloat. This dependence has only increased since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with Belarus losing its second-largest export market and facing additional sanctions from Western countries.

Estimates suggest that Russian subsidies, mainly in the form of cheap oil and gas, account for 10 to 15% of Belarus's GDP. Belarus also relies heavily on access to the Russian market, which is the destination of around 40% of its exports.

Since the rigged 2020 election in Belarus, the country has faced numerous sanctions from Western countries, and Russia has remained its only partner in the region. This has increased Belarus's economic dependence on Russia and reduced its capability to resist deeper integration.

In addition to energy imports, other areas of Belarus's dependence on Russia include bilateral trade, transit for exports, and capital inflows, often on preferential terms.

The energy sector is a key area of Belarus's dependence on Russia. Belarus has traditionally imported subsidised oil and gas exclusively from Russia, with Russian energy subsidies playing a significant role in the country's economic growth in the early 21st century. Gas imports are crucial, as Belarus used to produce 90% of its electricity and heat from gas. Since 2011, Russia has controlled Belarus's entire gas infrastructure through Gazprom, which also owns the gas storage facilities.

The trade relationship between Russia and Belarus is also significant. Historically, Belarus has relied heavily on Russia for both exports and imports, with over 40% of its total exports and 55% of imports linked to Russia until 2022. This dependence intensified after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, with Belarusian exports to Russia soaring to over 60% by 2023, facilitated by Western sanctions against Russia and the loss of the Ukrainian market.

Belarus's dependence on Russian trade logistics has also increased due to sanctions, with the country losing access to EU and Ukrainian ports. As a result, most non-Russian exports are now dependent on Russian railways, ports, and banks, leading to increased costs.

Foreign borrowing at preferential terms is another area of Belarus's dependence on Russia. Since August 2020, Belarus has lost access to international capital markets and major financial institutions, leaving Russia as its primary creditor. By the end of 2022, the Belarusian government owed USD 10.2 billion to the Russian government and Russian financial institutions, comprising nearly 60% of its total government debt.

Russian investors also hold significant stakes in key sectors of the Belarusian economy, including energy, telecommunications, and banking. As of January 1, 2018, 55% of all foreign direct investment (FDI) in Belarus came from Russian investors. Despite a change in statistical reporting in 2019 that lowered the reported Russian FDI figures, Russia remains the largest foreign investor in Belarus, especially as Western investors are held back by sanctions and political risks.

In summary, Belarus's economic dependence on Russia spans multiple sectors, including energy, trade, logistics, and finance. This dependence has increased since the invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions, posing serious risks to Belarus's sovereignty and economic stability.

The Union State of Russia and Belarus

The Union State was formed in the immediate post-Soviet period and is the outcome of several years of negotiations and agreements between the two countries. The first significant step in the integration process was taken in 1995, shortly after Lukashenko rose to power, when Moscow and Minsk signed the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation, which sought 'deeper economic integration' and the 'formation of a single economic space', as well as the coordination of military activities. In 1996, both countries signed the Treaty on the creation of the Community of Russia and Belarus, which sought further integration in the economic and humanitarian domains, as well as cooperation in foreign policy, security, border protection, and crime prevention. In 1997, the countries signed the Treaty on the Union of Belarus and Russia, which stipulated the implementation of a coordinated foreign and defence policy, joint citizenship, and a common market for goods, services, capital, and labour.

The Union State Treaty was signed on 8 December 1999, with the intention of achieving a federation like the Soviet Union, with a common head of state, legislature, flag, coat of arms, anthem, constitution, army, citizenship, and currency. The treaty was ratified by both countries in late 1999 and early 2000, and the Union came into effect on 26 January 2000. The union is ruled through the Supreme State Council, which includes the member heads of states, respective governments, and both chambers of parliaments. Decisions on the Supreme Council are made by the principle of one state, one vote, and the presidents of states give that vote. The Council of Ministers is composed of the member states' Prime Ministers, Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Economy, and Finance, and the State Secretary of the Union.

The Union State has the institutions of a Union State budget and Union State property (infrastructure, knowledge), which are not yet characteristic of other integration associations. Union State programs in various fields (space, information technology, microelectronics, agriculture, border security, Chernobyl relief, etc.) are funded from the Union State budget. Since 2000, over RUB50 billion has been allocated to them. In 2019, the Union State carried out 12 programs in the space, military-technical, agricultural, and medical sectors, as well as microelectronics and hydrometeorology.

The relationship between Russia and Belarus has become strained in recent years, with Belarus's President Lukashenko expressing grievances about Russia's behaviour towards its smaller western neighbour. Belarus is heavily dependent on Russia to keep its economy afloat, with Russian subsidies, mainly in the form of cheap oil and gas, accounting for 10 to 15% of Belarus's GDP. Belarus also relies heavily on access to the Russian market, which is the destination of about 41% of its exports. However, Moscow also needs Minsk, as Belarus is a key transit country for Russian gas destined for Western Europe.

Belarus's role in the Ukraine war

Belarus has been described as a "vassal state" of Russia, and its role in the Ukraine war has been significant. In the lead-up to the conflict, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory, and Russian troops remained in the country even after they were supposed to depart. Belarus also permitted Russia to launch part of its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory, providing Russia with the shortest possible land route to Kyiv, Ukraine's capital.

Belarus has allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its soil and fire at Ukrainian targets. There have been reports, denied by Belarus's leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, that Belarusian troops have fought alongside Russians in Ukraine. Lukashenko has stated that he will not send soldiers into Ukraine unless Belarus is attacked first.

Belarus has also hosted diplomatic conferences and voted in clubs such as the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO security pact of post-Soviet states. It has been described as part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's project for a Greater Russia, which includes Ukraine.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned by Western countries, and sanctions have been imposed. According to reports, the participation of Belarus in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population, and protests have been held.

The role of Belarus in the Ukraine war has evolved over time. Initially, during the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, Belarus acted as a mediator and peacemaker, taking a neutral stance on Russia's annexation of Crimea. However, the 2020 political crisis in Belarus increased Lukashenko's dependence on the Kremlin, and he became a crucial ally of Russia in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In summary, Belarus's role in the Ukraine war has been complex and multifaceted. It has provided military, diplomatic, and territorial support to Russia while also facing internal opposition and external condemnation for its involvement. The country's actions have had significant implications for regional security and its relations with both Russia and the West.

The erosion of Belarus's sovereignty

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus has enjoyed close relations with Russia. However, in recent years, this dynamic has begun to change, with Belarus increasingly becoming a vassal state of Russia. This shift has been driven by several factors, including economic dependence, military integration, and the actions of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who has prioritized his own power over the country's independence.

Economic Dependence

Belarus's economy is heavily reliant on Russia, with Russian subsidies in the form of cheap oil and gas accounting for 10-15% of its GDP. Additionally, Belarus relies heavily on access to the Russian market, which is the destination for approximately 41% of its exports. This economic dependence gives Russia significant leverage over Belarus and makes it difficult for the latter to act independently.

Military Integration

Russia and Belarus have also deepened their military integration in recent years, with Belarus agreeing to host Russian troops and weapons, including nuclear weapons, on its territory. This integration has been formalized through the Union State, a supranational union between the two countries that aims to deepen their relationship through economic and defence policy integration. The presence of Russian military forces in Belarus was particularly notable during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as it provided Russia with a strategic advantage and allowed it to launch attacks from multiple directions, including from Belarusian territory.

Lukashenko's Role

The actions of Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for over 30 years, have also contributed significantly to the erosion of the country's sovereignty. Lukashenko has prioritized maintaining his grip on power, even if it means sacrificing Belarus's independence. In 2020, when faced with widespread protests over a rigged election, Lukashenko relied on support from Vladimir Putin to crush the uprising, further increasing his dependence on Russia. Lukashenko has also made concessions to Russia, such as hosting Russian soldiers and weapons, to maintain Kremlin support and protect his position.

International Perspective

Future Prospects

The future of Belarus's sovereignty remains uncertain. On the one hand, the country's civil society has shown resilience, and there is opposition to Lukashenko's rule. On the other hand, the country's macroeconomic situation is worsening, and it remains financially dependent on Russia. Unless there is a significant shift in dynamics or a change in leadership, it appears that Belarus will continue on the path of integration with Russia, with its sovereignty continuing to erode.

Belarus's autocratic leader Alexander Lukashenko

Alexander Lukashenko is the current president of Belarus and the longest-serving head of state in Europe, having been in power since 1994. Lukashenko has been described as an autocratic, unpredictable, and authoritarian leader who has resisted economic and political reforms and suppressed dissent in the media and among the people. He has been labelled by the media as "Europe's last dictator".

Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by close ties with Russia, with Belarus relying on Russian economic support and cheap energy to keep its economy afloat. Belarus is also a key transit country for Russian gas exports to Western Europe. Despite this dependence, Lukashenko has attempted to play Russia and the West off against each other, and has made overtures to the West in an attempt to gain leverage over Moscow. However, these attempts have been largely unsuccessful, and Belarus remains heavily dependent on Russia.

In recent years, Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has deteriorated, with the two countries clashing over issues such as oil and gas supplies and the presence of Russian troops in Belarus. Despite this, Lukashenko has continued to align himself with Russia, and in 2022, he allowed Russian soldiers to use Belarus as a base for their invasion of Ukraine. This decision led to Belarus becoming internationally isolated, with the EU, US, UK, and Canada refusing to recognise Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus.

Lukashenko's domestic policies have been controversial, with critics accusing him of corruption, human rights abuses, and making controversial statements deemed antisemitic, homophobic, and misogynistic. He has also been accused of rigging elections and using violence and intimidation to suppress opposition. In response to the 2020 protests, Lukashenko's security forces arrested over 35,000 people and beat thousands of them in custody.

Lukashenko's political system has been described as "Lukashism" or "Lukashenkoism", characterised by a strong cult of personality and nostalgia for Soviet times among his supporters. He has promoted himself as a "man of the people" and has resisted economic reform, arguing that it would destabilise the country. Despite the criticism and international isolation, Lukashenko maintains a firm grip on power in Belarus, and there are no signs that this will change in the foreseeable future.

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