Azerbaijan's Aggressor Status: Examining The Evidence

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been ongoing for decades, with both sides accusing the other of aggression. The most recent escalation occurred in September 2022 when Azerbaijani forces launched a large-scale attack along the eastern border of Armenia, targeting both military and civilian areas. This attack constituted a significant escalation as hostilities had previously been concentrated mostly in and around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but has an ethnic Armenian majority.

In the lead-up to the September 2022 attack, Azerbaijan had been accused of pursuing a policy of creeping ethnic cleansing, with intermittent violence and the gradual taking of new territory. Azerbaijan has also been accused of violating ceasefires and seeking to capture Nagorno-Karabakh by force, with the largest single ceasefire violation occurring in 2016 when Azerbaijan attempted a full-scale invasion of the region.

Despite these actions, there is still a perception among many Americans and Western Europeans that Armenia is the victim and Azerbaijan is the aggressor. This perception is largely due to the historical context of the conflict, with Armenians seen as the underdogs and victims of aggression following the attempted genocide of their people during World War I. However, in the most recent round of conflict, it is Armenia that has invaded Azerbaijan and occupied a significant portion of its territory. As such, there are calls for the international community to recognise Azerbaijan as the victim of Armenian aggression and for Armenia to withdraw from occupied territory.

Azerbaijan's ethnic cleansing of Armenians

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh has resulted in accusations of ethnic cleansing on both sides. Nagorno-Karabakh is a landlocked region in the South Caucasus, predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians, that has been at the centre of a protracted conflict between the two countries for decades. The dispute is underpinned by deep-seated ethnic and religious tensions, with Armenians predominantly Christian and Azerbaijanis predominantly Muslim, and historical grievances dating back to the early 20th century.

In 1923, the Soviets established a Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, populated with 95% ethnic Armenians. However, in 1991, anticipating the end of the Soviet Union, the regional government signed a resolution to rejoin Armenia, which triggered the first Karabakh war that lasted from 1988 to 1994. During this conflict, Armenian forces gained control of the region and about 20% of Azerbaijani territory. As a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia received support from Moscow, which brokered a peace agreement, effectively granting de facto independence to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Sporadic clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan persisted, eventually escalating into another full-scale war in 2020, known as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. This conflict resulted in a significant Azerbaijani victory, with Azerbaijan regaining control of all the occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as capturing one-third of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. The war left thousands of casualties on both sides and led to a tripartite ceasefire agreement in November 2020. Despite the ceasefire, violations continued, with Azerbaijan blockading Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022 and launching a large-scale military offensive in September 2023.

Azerbaijan's actions have been characterised by some as ethnic cleansing, with over 100,000 Armenians driven out of Nagorno-Karabakh and the region left with almost no Christians. Azerbaijan has been accused of systematically erasing all traces of ethnic Armenians in the disputed region, including Armenian cultural and religious heritage sites. This has led to a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), filed by Armenia in 2021, accusing Azerbaijan of discrimination, ethnic cleansing, glorifying racism, allowing hate speech, and destroying Armenian cultural sites. Armenia claims that these actions violate a UN anti-discrimination treaty, while Azerbaijan denies all accusations.

The conflict has resulted in a humanitarian crisis, with the influx of refugees straining resources in Armenia. The refugees, including families with women, children, and individuals with disabilities, face upheaval, homelessness, and unemployment. The situation is further complicated by the presence of legitimate refugees, as opposed to just military-aged men seeking economic opportunities. The Armenian government has struggled to balance shifting the country towards the EU and addressing the needs of the refugees, leading to protests and calls for the prime minister's resignation.

The role of Turkey in the conflict

Turkey's involvement in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is driven by its close ties with Azerbaijan and complex relations with Armenia. Turkey has historically supported Azerbaijan's claims over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory but is dominated by ethnic Armenians. Turkey's relationship with Azerbaijan is often described as "one nation, two states," highlighting the strong ethnic, cultural, and linguistic bonds between the two countries.

Turkey's support for Azerbaijan goes beyond shared cultural ties and is rooted in strategic interests. Azerbaijan is crucial for Turkey's energy security, with Ankara's gas imports from Azerbaijan rising by 23% in the first half of 2020. Additionally, SOCAR, Azerbaijan's state oil company, has become a significant investor in Turkey.

Turkey has also sought to consolidate its status as a regional power by participating in the negotiation process and challenging the influence of other actors, such as Russia, in the region. Turkey has criticised the OSCE Minsk Group, which includes the US, France, and Russia, for their mediation efforts, arguing that the format is neither neutral nor efficient. Instead, Turkey aims to negotiate directly with Russia in the South Caucasus, excluding Western actors.

Turkey's military has played a role in the conflict by providing training to Azerbaijani officers for decades and conducting joint military exercises. Turkey is also a significant supplier of military equipment to Azerbaijan, becoming its third-largest supplier after Russia and Israel. Turkey has been accused of providing further military support, including sending its own personnel and Syrian mercenaries to fight alongside Azerbaijan, although these claims are denied by both Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Turkey's involvement has angered Western nations, who accuse it of adding fuel to a dangerous conflict. Analysts argue that Turkey's staunch backing of Azerbaijan has played a significant role in the flare-up of violence in the region and reveals Ankara's wider ambitions in the South Caucasus.

The international community's response

Supranational organisations

The European Parliament declared that Azerbaijan's incursion into Armenian territory violated international law and Armenia's territorial integrity. It also issued a report in March 2023, condemning Azerbaijan's attack on Armenia in 2022 and encouraged Armenia to seek alternative security alliances due to the CSTO's inaction during the invasion.

The Council of Europe stated that it was "extremely concerned about the serious humanitarian and human rights situation in Nagorno-Karabakh". It urged Armenia to continue to contribute to de-escalation and resolve the conflict peacefully.

The OSCE called on Azerbaijan to pull back its forces and begin negotiations to demarcate the shared international border.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance that includes Armenia, declined to provide military assistance to Armenia following Azerbaijan's incursion in May 2021 and September 2022.

Individual countries

Canada – Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly expressed concern over the rise in hostilities and urged de-escalation, full respect for the ceasefire, and a return to dialogue.

Estonia – Foreign Minister Marina Kaljurand condemned Azerbaijan's "large-scale military attack", adding that it was taking advantage of the global situation created by Russia's aggression against Ukraine.

France – President Emmanuel Macron wrote that Azerbaijan's armed forces had invaded Armenian territory and must withdraw immediately. He also called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and accused Turkey of threatening Armenia's borders.

India – The spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry called on the "aggressor side to immediately cease hostilities", adding that there were reports of attacks on civilian settlements and infrastructure.

Iran – The head of the Islamic Consultative Assembly's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Mojtaba Zolnouri, declared that Tehran would not accept any change in international borders in the region and that the territorial integrity of the countries must be preserved.

Russia – President Vladimir Putin urged both countries to respect the ceasefire agreement and said that Russia would continue mediating efforts. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied accusations that Russian peacekeepers had failed to protect Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkey – The AKP's spokesperson, Ömer Çelik, condemned Armenia's "aggressive policies" and vowed to support Azerbaijan in whatever it wanted. He also criticised France's pro-Armenia response and accused Armenia of violating Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

United States – The State Department initially voiced concerns regarding increased tensions and urged restraint and a peaceful resolution. Later, the US State Department spokeswoman Jalina Porter stated that the US expected Azerbaijan to immediately pull back its forces and cease provocations.

Azerbaijan's use of heavy weaponry

Azerbaijan's armed forces consist of three branches: the Land Forces, the Air and Air Defence Force, and the Navy. The Land Forces are the largest, with an estimated 85,000 personnel, including the National Guard. The Air and Air Defence Force has around 8,000 personnel and a variety of aircraft and helicopters. The Navy has approximately 2,200 personnel and a range of naval vessels.

In recent years, Azerbaijan has sought to enhance its military capabilities by investing in advanced weaponry. According to reports, Israel is the largest supplier of arms to Azerbaijan, with their equipment making up most of Azerbaijan's imports. This includes a wide range of drones, missiles, and mortars. The Harop "suicide drone" and other Israeli-made drones played a significant role in Azerbaijan's 2020 offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan's Land Forces utilise a variety of heavy weaponry, including tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery systems, and rocket launchers. They possess main battle tanks, such as the T-72 Aslan variant and the T-90S, as well as armoured fighting vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles. In terms of artillery, they have howitzers, field guns, and self-propelled artillery with various ranges and capabilities. Additionally, they employ multiple rocket launchers, such as the 122mm T-122 'Sakarya' and 300mm BM-30 'Smerch'.

Azerbaijan's Air and Air Defence Force operates a range of aircraft, including MiG-21, Su-24, Su-25, and MiG-29. They also have a helicopter force consisting of Mi-24, Mi-8, and Mi-2 helicopters. To defend their airspace, they have surface-to-air missile systems like the S-300PMU2, S-200 (SA-5 GAMMON), and SA-2 Guideline.

The country's military budget has increased significantly, from around $300 million in 2005 to $2.46 billion in 2009. This has allowed them to acquire advanced weaponry and enhance their combat capabilities. They have also sought military cooperation and training with countries like Turkey, Israel, and the United States.

In conclusion, Azerbaijan's use of heavy weaponry has been a significant factor in its conflict with Armenia. The country has invested in modernising and expanding its armed forces, acquiring advanced weapons systems from various suppliers, particularly Israel. The use of drones, missiles, tanks, and artillery has played a pivotal role in Azerbaijan's military operations, demonstrating their commitment to enhancing their military capabilities.

The impact of the conflict on civilians

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has had a devastating impact on civilians, causing mass displacement, casualties, and human rights violations.

The conflict has resulted in significant population displacement, with civilians forced to flee their homes and seek refuge in neighbouring countries. In the most recent escalation, the Armenian government reported that over 68,000 people had left Nagorno-Karabakh to seek safety in Armenia, with many more expected to follow. This adds to the over one million people who were previously displaced during the decades-long conflict. The displacement has led to challenging humanitarian conditions, with limited access to basic necessities and humanitarian aid.

Civilians have also been directly caught in the crossfire, facing injury, death, and human rights abuses. There have been reports of attacks on civilian objects and civilians, with both sides accusing each other of targeting civilian populations. The attacks have resulted in casualties, including women and children, and caused fear and trauma among those living in the conflict zone. The presence of landmines in civilian areas has further exacerbated the danger faced by civilians, leading to injuries and deaths even outside of active combat situations.

The conflict has also taken a toll on essential civilian infrastructure, such as roads, schools, and hospitals. The destruction of infrastructure has disrupted access to essential services, including education, healthcare, and transportation. The damage to infrastructure, along with the ongoing violence, has severely impacted the mental and physical well-being of civilians, causing trauma and long-lasting psychological effects.

Furthermore, the conflict has resulted in the denial of fundamental human rights for civilians, including the right to freedom of movement, education, and cultural expression. There have been reports of forced displacement, restrictions on movement, and the destruction of cultural and religious sites. The conflict has also led to the spread of hateful rhetoric and sentiment towards each other's communities, with reports of violent hate crimes and attacks on ethnic minorities in both countries.

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