Azerbaijan-Iran: Strained Relations And Geopolitical Competition

The relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan is a delicate one, fraught with geopolitical complexities and historical tensions. Iran has officially maintained a neutral stance in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, offering to mediate between the two countries. However, there are several factors that contribute to Iran's complex dynamics with Azerbaijan. Firstly, Iran's support for Armenia in the past has been attributed to its desire to quash separatist sentiments among its sizable Azerbaijani population, amounting to around 20 million people. Additionally, Iran's relations with Azerbaijan are influenced by land disputes, nationalism among Azeri Turks, and competing interests in the Caspian Sea region. Furthermore, Azerbaijan's close ties with Israel, a rival of Iran, have also strained their relationship. Iran's ambiguous stance and secret dealings with Armenia have drawn criticism from both internal and external sources, including influential figures within Iran who advocate for Islamic unity with Azerbaijan.

Iran's support of Armenia is to quash separatist sentiments in Iranian Azerbaijan

The statement by Azerbaijan's president Abulfaz Elchibey in the early 1990s, expressing his wish to reunite Azerbaijan, did not sit well with Tehran. This, along with other factors, contributed to Tehran's close connections with Yerevan.

The changing political nature of Iran's Azeri Turkish population, with increasing Turkish nationalism, has been viewed as a serious political problem by Iran. Connections and relations between the country's north, where a sizable Azeri Turkish population resides, and Azerbaijan have influenced Tehran's political problems with Azerbaijan.

The idea of a "Greater Azerbaijan" has long been a threat to the Iranian establishment, which has used its support of Armenia as a countermeasure to minimise Azeri aspirations in Iran and the region. Iran's backing of Armenia is thus seen as a way to counterbalance Azerbaijan and Turkey across southern Caucasia.

Additionally, land disputes, increasing nationalism among Azeri Turks, issues over sharing natural sources of the Caspian Sea, and Azerbaijan's close relations with Israel, have all contributed to tensions between Baku and Tehran.

Iran's large Turkic-origin population has historically been a political fear for the Iranian government

The Turkic peoples, including the Azerbaijanis, constitute a substantial minority in Iran, making up 15-24% of the population. The Azerbaijanis are the largest ethnic minority group in Iran, with scholarssection break>estimating their population to be between 12 and 23 million. They are native to the Iranian Azerbaijan region, which includes the provinces of East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Zanjan, and West Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani populations are also found in large numbers in other Iranian provinces, including Hamadan, Qazvin, Markazi, and Kurdistan.

Thesection break]Azerbaijani Turks in Iran have historically been a source of political concern for the Iranian government due to their potential for fuelling separatist sentiments. This fear is particularly acute in the northwestern provinces of Iran, where approximately 20 million Azerbaijanis are concentrated, constituting a quarter of the country's population. There have been long-standing aspirations for a "Greater Azerbaijan", which would unite the Republic of Azerbaijan and Iranian Azerbaijan.

The idea of a united Azerbaijan has been a threat to the Iranian establishment, which has traditionally sided with Armenia in its conflicts with Azerbaijan. Iran's support for Armenia is seen as a countermeasure to minimise Azeri aspirations for unification and to quash separatist sentiments within its own borders.

The changing political nature of Iran's Azeri population, with increasing Turkish nationalism, has further contributed to Tehran's close connections with Yerevan. The connections between the Azeri Turks in Iran's north and the Republic of Azerbaijan have been a significant factor in Tehran's political problems with its neighbour.

While the majority of Azeris in Iran are Shia Muslims, just like the majority of Iranians, the language spoken by the Azeris is very close to Turkish, and they have established close connections with Ankara. This has contributed to tensions between Baku and Tehran, with issues regarding how to share natural sources in the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan's close relations with Israel, which is considered an archenemy of Iran.

The large Turkic-origin population in Iran, with their cultural, linguistic, and political ties to the Republic of Azerbaijan, has historically been a source of concern for the Iranian government, influencing its foreign relations and internal policies.

Iran's close ties with Armenia are a counter-measure to minimise Azeri aspirations in Iran and across the region

Iran's close ties with Armenia are a strategic counter-measure to minimise Azeri aspirations in Iran and across the region. The country walks a tightrope between bowing to public opinion and backing its traditional ally, Armenia. While Iran has a Shia majority and shares similarities with Azerbaijan in terms of religion, history, and ethnic composition, it has more often supported Armenia, a Christian nation, in its conflict with Azerbaijan.

The idea of a "Greater Azerbaijan" has long been a threat to the Iranian establishment. Iran's northern region is often referred to as "southern Azerbaijan" and is home to a significant Azeri Turkish population, constituting around 40% of Iran's population. Azeri nationalists and intellectuals have advocated for a political union between northern and southern Azerbaijan, which has caused concern in Tehran. Iran's support for Armenia is seen as a way to counterbalance these aspirations and maintain its territorial integrity.

Additionally, Iran has viewed Azerbaijan's increasing ties with Israel and Turkey as a serious political problem. Azerbaijan's southern gas corridor, which bypasses Iran, has made the country rich with EU petrodollars, while Iran has sought to involve itself in Baku's oil and gas industries. Iran's interests converge with Russia's, as both countries have lost their oil market in Europe to Azerbaijan. By supporting Armenia, Iran can exert pressure on Baku and attempt to minimise Azeri aspirations across the region.

Furthermore, Iran's close ties with Armenia also serve to improve its geopolitical position. Armenia is strategically located, sharing a border with Azerbaijan and providing Iran with access to the lucrative trade between India and Russia. Iran's relations with Armenia also help to balance its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan across southern Caucasia.

Iran's media campaigns have defamed Azerbaijan and Turkey

The Iranian government has denied these accusations, claiming that Sahar-2 is a privately-owned station, and that its broadcasts merely express "its own position." However, Azerbaijani officials have urged Iran to cease these transmissions, viewing them as interference in Azerbaijan's internal affairs.

Additionally, Iranian media have accused Azerbaijan of hosting a "homosexual parade" by hosting the Eurovision Song Contest in 2012, and of violating Iranian territorial integrity by including a famous Iranian monument in its Eurovision reel in 2009. These media campaigns have further strained relations between the two countries.

Beyond the media sphere, Iran has also been accused of taking more direct action to undermine Azerbaijan. This includes alleged cyber-attacks, as well as supporting and supplying arms to sleeper cells and militant groups operating within Azerbaijan.

Iran's stance on Nagorno-Karabakh is pragmatic, pursuing its material interests

Iran's stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a delicate balancing act. The country has maintained a pragmatic approach, pursuing its material interests and national security above all else.

Iran's official position has been to call for a cessation of hostilities and offer mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, there are several factors influencing Tehran's stance, including historical, cultural, religious, and geopolitical considerations.

Firstly, Iran has traditionally sided with Armenia to counterbalance the influence of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the region. Tehran fears the rise of Turkish nationalism among its sizeable Azeri-speaking minority, which constitutes around 25% of its population. A potential "Greater Azerbaijan" unifies the current Republic of Azerbaijan with Iranian Azerbaijan, threatening Iran's territorial integrity.

Secondly, Iran's relations with Armenia are shaped by their shared border, religious ties, and common interests. Armenia relies on Iran as a lifeline, and both countries share a Christian minority in a predominantly Muslim region. Additionally, Armenia's alliance with Russia, a key partner of Iran, further cements their relationship.

Thirdly, Iran's ties with Azerbaijan are complicated by historical and cultural factors. The two countries share religious and cultural affinities as Shia-majority nations with significant Turkic-origin populations. However, Azerbaijan's close relations with Israel and the presence of US and Israeli intelligence operations in Baku have strained their relationship with Tehran.

Moreover, the outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict presents a dilemma for Iran. An Azerbaijani victory, particularly with strong Turkish and Israeli support, would embolden Baku's patrons and solidify Ankara's position on Iran's border, threatening its influence in the region. On the other hand, an Armenian victory would anger Iran's Azeri-speaking minority and put pressure on Tehran to intervene.

Iran's pragmatic approach to the conflict is further evidenced by its reaction to the truce agreement. While Iran welcomed the end of hostilities, it also sought to safeguard its interests. Tehran was relieved that the agreement did not grant Turkey a explicit role in the region and preferred the presence of Russian peacekeepers to Turkish ones. Additionally, Iran emphasized the need for minority rights and the protection of local Armenians, addressing potential humanitarian concerns on its northern borders.

In conclusion, Iran's stance on Nagorno-Karabakh is driven by pragmatic considerations and the pursuit of its material interests. The country seeks to balance its relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan while mitigating the risks to its national security and influence in the region.

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