Ruqayyah Snyder
Australia's population is currently increasing, with an estimated population of 26,974,026 people in mid-2025. The population has grown at a historically high rate since the reopening of international borders during the COVID-19 pandemic. The main driver of population growth is net overseas migration, which has increased from a net inflow of 47,000 people in 1993-94 to 435,000 people in 2023-24. Natural increase (births minus deaths) has also contributed to population growth, but the rate is in decline, with fertility rates at a record low of 1.49 babies per woman in 2023-24. The ageing population is a significant factor in Australia's demographic makeup, with the number of deaths outpacing births in recent years. By 2054, official projections predict that deaths will surpass births, leading to a natural decline in the population without immigration.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Population growth | 1.4% a year on average over the past 3 decades |
| Population in 2022 | 26 million |
| Population in 2024 | 27.2 million |
| Population in 2025 | 26,974,026 million |
| Population projection by 2071 | 34.3 million to 45.9 million |
| Annual growth rate projection by 2071 | 0.2% to 0.9% |
| Median age | 38.5 years |
| Median age projection by 2071 | 43.8 to 47.6 years |
| Total fertility rate in 2022-23 | 1.58 |
| Total fertility rate in 2023-24 | 1.49 |
| Annual natural increase by September 2023 | 111,000 |
| Annual natural increase by December 2024 | 105,200 |
| Net overseas migration by December 2024 | 340,800 |
| Net interstate migration | Queensland and Western Australia are experiencing an influx, while Tasmania is experiencing an outflux |
| Population composition | Urbanized, with a high concentration of people living along the southeastern coastline from southeast Queensland to Victoria |
| Population age distribution | Middle-aged and older people outnumber children |
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What You'll Learn
Population growth driven by migration
Australia's population growth has been driven primarily by net overseas migration, which has increased from a net inflow of 47,000 people in 1993-94 to 435,000 people in 2023-24. This growth is also influenced by interstate migration, with Queensland and Western Australia experiencing notable increases due to internal population movements. In contrast, natural increase (births minus deaths) has decreased from 135,000 people in 1993-94 to 106,000 in 2023-24, and fertility rates have declined from 1.85 babies per woman in 1993-94 to 1.49 in 2023-24.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted Australia's population dynamics. International border restrictions caused population growth to plummet to 0.1% in 2020-21, the lowest in history. During this period, Australia experienced its first net outflow of migrants since World War II, with -85,000 people. However, the easing of restrictions and the return of overseas migration in late 2021 spurred a rebound in population growth, with rates of 2.5% in 2022-23 and 2.0% in 2023-24.
Overseas migration has been a key factor in Australia's population growth over the past three decades, contributing to 57% of the total increase. This trend is expected to continue, with Western Australia and Victoria projected to be the fastest-growing jurisdictions due to elevated net overseas migration. Queensland's strong population growth is also driven by overseas migration, alongside interstate migration and natural increase.
While interstate migration rates declined from their peaks in the 1980s and 1990s, they are projected to increase steadily in the coming years. The level of interstate migration is expected to rise by 9.8% in 2024-25 and reach 446,000 moves in 2026-27. However, as a proportion of the population, these numbers remain lower than pre-pandemic levels.
Migration has had a significant impact on Australia's economy and labour market. In 2019, Australia had the second-highest share of migrants among OECD countries, with 30% of its population being migrants. Migration boosts labour productivity and employment for Australian-born workers, and it has a positive effect on patenting, with higher-educated migrants contributing to regional innovation.
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Ageing population
Australia's population is ageing, with the median age of the population projected to increase from 38.5 years in 2022 to between 43.8 and 47.6 years by 2071. This ageing trend is reflected in the decreasing proportion of children (under 15 years of age) and an increasing proportion of people aged 65 and over. In the 20 years between 2000 and 2020, the proportion of children decreased from 20.7% to 18.6% of the total population. On the other hand, the population aged 65 and over grew in all states and territories in the year ending June 2020, with the largest proportional increase in the Northern Territory (6.4%), followed by Western Australia (4.6%) and Queensland (4.0%). The population aged 85 and over has also seen significant growth, increasing by 110% in the past two decades, compared to a total population growth of 35%.
The ageing population in Australia is driven by two main factors: declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. Fertility rates have declined from 1.85 babies per woman in 1993-94 to a record low of 1.49 in 2023-24, with the COVID-19 pandemic further contributing to a decrease in births. However, it is important to note that there was a brief rebound in births during the "COVID-19 baby bump" period from 2020 to 2022. Life expectancy in Australia has been improving, with males and females born in 2014 and 2016 expected to live until 84.6 and 87.3 years old, respectively. While the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in life expectancy from 2021 to 2023, the impact is expected to wane by 2028-29.
The ageing population has significant implications for Australian society and the economy. Firstly, it will reshape communities and workplaces, leading to a potential shift in the types of services needed, such as more health centres and senior-friendly facilities. Secondly, the ageing population will impact the country's finances, with a projected increase in health spending of more than AUD$270 billion (USD$174 billion) to support the rising number of older Australians. The demand for aged care, disability, and mental health support is expected to increase, requiring an additional 285,800 workers in these sectors by 2050. To address the funding gap in the aged care sector, there have been discussions about increasing taxes or adding to Australia's Medicare levy.
The ageing population also affects the workforce participation rate, as working rates tend to decrease after the age of 55. With the baby boomer generation entering their 70s and 80s, the proportion of the population in retirement has grown, resulting in a reduction in revenue for the government. At the same time, there is an increased demand for elderly support services, impacting the Australian budget. Overall, the ageing population in Australia presents both challenges and opportunities, requiring adaptations in various sectors to meet the changing needs of a maturing society.
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Declining fertility rates
Australia's population has grown by around 1.4% annually over the past three decades, from 17.8 million in 1994 to 27.2 million in 2024. However, the country's fertility rates have been on a steady decline during this period. The total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.49 babies per woman in 2023-24, down from 1.85 babies per woman in 1993-94. This decline is attributed to various factors, including modern fertility control measures and changing family formation patterns. The COVID-19 pandemic also played a role, with fertility rates fluctuating and then declining sharply after the initial "baby bump" during the early years of the pandemic.
The decline in fertility rates has been a long-term trend in Australia, with birth rates falling for decades. This trend is in contrast to the rapid increase in the world's population. While the total fertility rate in Australia is low, there is some variation among the states and territories. For instance, Western Australia had the highest total fertility rate in 2023, with 1.57 babies per woman, while the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest, with 1.31 babies per woman.
The decline in fertility rates has implications for Australia's population growth. While net overseas migration has been the primary driver of population growth in recent years, natural increase (births minus deaths) has also contributed. However, the natural increase has decreased from 135,000 people in 1993-94 to 106,000 people in 2023-24. This decrease is due to the declining fertility rates and the ageing population, as the number of deaths has grown faster than births in recent years.
The COVID-19 pandemic further impacted Australia's population dynamics. In 2020-21, during the pandemic, Australia experienced its first net outflow of migrants since World War II, with more people leaving the country than entering. This outflow contributed to the decline in population growth, along with the lower birth rates during the pandemic. While births rebounded in 2021, the total fertility rate continued to decline, reaching a record low in 2023-24.
The declining fertility rates in Australia are part of a broader demographic shift. The Australian population is ageing, as reflected in the increasing median age, which is projected to rise from the current 38.5 years to between 43.8 and 47.6 years by 2071. This ageing population is a result of both declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, which experienced a sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. As Australia's fertility rates continue to decline, the country's population growth may slow further, shaping future social and economic trends.
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Population concentration
Australia's population has been increasing over the past few decades, with a ten-year average annual growth rate of 1.4%. The population was around 17.8 million in 1994 and reached 27.2 million by 30 June 2024. However, the rate of population growth is projected to slow down, with the annual growth rate expected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9% by 2071.
New South Wales, one of Australia's six states, had the highest population proportion in December 2023, with 31.3% of the country's residents. During the same period, the Northern Territory had the lowest population, with less than 1% of the total population.
Queensland, another state in Australia, has experienced strong population growth of 2.7%, driven by overseas migration, interstate migration, and natural increase. Western Australia is currently the fastest-growing state, with a growth rate of 3.3%, attributed to mining expansion and resulting in high net overseas and net interstate migration.
South Australia, on the other hand, is experiencing a slower growth rate of 1.7%, with net overseas migration as the primary driver. Tasmania, which was once the second fastest-growing state in September 2019 with a growth rate of 1.8%, has slowed down significantly, reaching only 0.3% in September 2023.
In summary, Australia's population is concentrated in urban areas, with New South Wales and Queensland being key examples. The country's population has been increasing but is projected to slow down in the coming decades. Queensland and Western Australia are currently experiencing strong population growth, while South Australia and Tasmania are growing at slower rates.
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Population projections
Australia's population has grown around 1.4% a year on average over the past three decades, from 17.8 million in 1994 to 27.2 million in 2024. The population is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071, with the current ten-year average annual growth rate of 1.4% expected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9%.
Mortality rates and life expectancy in Australia have also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. While Australia experienced low mortality during the early years of the pandemic, infection rates increased from 2022, leading to higher deaths from COVID-19 and other causes. This resulted in a decline in life expectancy, with a sharp fall of 0.2 years for males and 0.3 years for females between 2021 and 2023.
Net overseas migration has been the main driver of population growth in Australia, with an inflow of 435,000 people in 2023-24, compared to 47,000 in 1993-94. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a net outflow of migrants from Australia in 2020-21 for the first time since World War II.
Interstate migration has also impacted population distribution within Australia. Queensland, for example, has experienced strong population growth of 2.7%, driven by both overseas and interstate migration. Western Australia is currently the fastest-growing state, with a growth rate of 3.3%, attributed to the expansion of mining in the region.
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Frequently asked questions
Australia's population is increasing. As of 31 December 2024, Australia's population was 27,400,013, with an annual growth rate of 1.7%. However, the growth rate is projected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9% by 2071.
The increase in Australia's population is driven by two main factors: natural increase (the number of births minus deaths) and net overseas migration. While the natural increase has been declining, net overseas migration has been the primary driver of population growth in recent years.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on Australia's population growth. During the pandemic, Australia experienced its first net outflow of migrants since World War II in 2020-21. The pandemic also affected fertility rates, with a "COVID-19 baby bump" followed by a sharp decline in 2022-23. Overall, the pandemic has contributed to an ageing population in Australia.
