Angola's Progress: Advancing Or Stagnant?

Angola is a country in Southern Africa with a long coastline and central plateau. It is the second-largest Lusophone (Portuguese-speaking) country in the world in terms of both total area and population, and the seventh-largest country in Africa. Angola's economy is heavily dependent on oil, which has led to volatile growth and high levels of poverty and inequality. The country has been ruled by the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) since it gained independence in 1975, and the MPLA has been criticised for human rights abuses and corruption. However, the current president, Joao Lourenco, has made fighting corruption a key priority, and the country is expected to see economic growth in the coming years, particularly in the non-oil sector. While Angola has a multiparty system, power is highly concentrated in the presidency, and the MPLA has been accused of rigging elections.

Angola's economy and its dependence on oil

Angola's economy is heavily dependent on its oil and gas industry. Oil and gas products make up more than 90% of its exports, with crude oil exports alone accounting for US$39.94 billion in 2022. The petroleum industry is key and accounts for almost 75% of the country's revenues. Angola has proven crude oil reserves of 9 billion barrels and proven natural gas reserves of 11 trillion cubic feet.

The country's economy is among the fastest-growing in the world, especially since the end of the civil war in 2002. However, this growth is highly uneven, with most of the nation's wealth concentrated in a disproportionately small part of the population. Angola's economy grew 18% in 2005, 26% in 2006, and 17.6% in 2007. Due to the global recession, the economy contracted an estimated −0.3% in 2009.

Angola's economic fortunes are tied to global oil demand, which has brought volatile growth and left the country with high levels of poverty and inequality. The country's dependence on the oil sector has increased its vulnerability to external shocks and undermined macroeconomic stability. Strong real exchange rate appreciation has stunted the non-oil economy and limited economic diversification and job creation. Angola's exposure to oil price shocks has also been felt in non-oil sectors such as construction and agriculture, which have historically underperformed when the oil sector contracted.

Angola's oil production has been declining since 2015 due to diminishing investment, technical problems, and the Covid-19 pandemic. The country's National Oil, Gas, and Biofuel Agency (ANPG) warns that without new investment, there could be a further steady decline in oil production as existing oil fields mature.

Angola's government has recognised the need to diversify the economy away from oil and has implemented reforms to support national production, export diversification, and import substitution. While Angola has taken important steps, more can be done to attract private investment and boost productivity in non-oil sectors.

The political regime and its history

Angola's political regime is presidential, with the President of the Republic acting as both head of state and head of government. The President, together with the parliament, appoints the majority of the members of the two highest bodies of the judiciary, the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court. The President also appoints the members of the government, the members of the Court of Auditors, the Military Supreme Court, the Governor and Vice-Governors of the National Angolan Bank, the General-Attorney, the General Police Commander, the chiefs and directors of the intelligence and security organs, and more. The President is advised by a Council of Ministers, which together with the President form the national executive power.

The country operates under a multi-party system, with general elections held every five years. The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) has been in power since the country gained independence in 1975.

Angola's history has been marked by a 26-year-long civil war that ravaged the country's political and social institutions, as well as a long period of Portuguese colonisation.

Pre-Independence Angola

Portuguese explorer Diogo Cão reached the area in 1484, establishing relations with the Kingdom of Kongo, which stretched from modern-day Gabon in the north to the Kwanza River in the south. The Portuguese built their primary early trading post at Soyo, now the northernmost city in Angola. The Kingdom of Kongo became extremely wealthy and powerful through establishing the Atlantic slave trade with the Portuguese Empire.

In the first millennium BC, nomadic Khoi and San peoples were displaced by Bantu peoples arriving from the north, who introduced the cultivation of bananas and taro, as well as large cattle herds.

Portuguese Colonisation

The Portuguese established several settlements, forts and trading posts along the Angolan coast, trading in Angolan slaves for plantations. Local slave dealers provided a large number of slaves for the Portuguese Empire, usually in exchange for manufactured goods from Europe.

The transition from a feudal system of slavery to a capitalist one with Portugal proved crucial to the history of the Kingdom of Kongo. As relations between the kingdoms grew in the early 16th century, trade between them also increased, with Kongo exporting slaves, palm cloth, copper, and ivory.

The slave trade became Kongo's primary economic sector, and the only commodity in which Europeans were interested in the region during the 16th and 17th centuries. This prevented the diversification and later industrialisation of Kongo's economy.

Independence and Civil War

After a protracted anti-colonial struggle (1961-1974), Angola achieved independence in 1975 as a one-party Republic. However, competing movements still struggled for power in the new nation, and the country descended into civil war the same year. The war was fought between the ruling MPLA, backed by the Soviet Union and Cuba; the insurgent National Union for the Total Independence of Angola, an originally Maoist and later anti-communist group supported by the United States and South Africa; and the militant organisation National Liberation Front of Angola, backed by Zaire.

The civil war ravaged the country's political and social institutions, and the ongoing economic situation largely prevents any government support for social institutions. Hospitals are without medicines or basic equipment, schools are without books, and public employees often lack the basic supplies for their day-to-day work.

The MPLA remained in power throughout the civil war, which ended in 2002. Since then, Angola has emerged as a relatively stable constitutional republic.

Post-Civil War

In 2017, José Eduardo dos Santos stepped down as President of Angola after 38 years, being peacefully succeeded by João Lourenço, Santos' chosen successor. President João Lourenço started a campaign against corruption, removing several associates and family members of former president dos Santos from their positions.

In August 2022, the MPLA won another outright majority and President João Lourenço won a second five-year term in the election. However, the election was the tightest in Angola's history, and was marred with severe restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly, and limited access to information due to government repression and censorship in state media.

The role of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA)

The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) is an Angolan social democratic political party that has ruled the country since it gained independence from Portugal in 1975. The MPLA fought against the Portuguese Army in the Angolan War of Independence from 1961 to 1974 and emerged victorious in the subsequent civil war against the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) and the National Liberation Front of Angola (FNLA).

The MPLA was founded in 1956 through the merger of two nationalist organizations and was centred in the country's capital city of Luanda. From 1962, it was led by Agostinho Neto, who became Angola's first president. In the early 1970s, the MPLA's guerrilla activities were reduced due to the counter-insurgency campaigns of the Portuguese military, and internal conflicts caused the movement to temporarily split into three factions. However, by 1974/75, the MPLA had overcome these differences and renewed its cooperation.

In 1977, the MPLA refashioned itself as a Marxist-Leninist party and added the words "Party of Labour" (PT) to its name. It established socialist economic policies and a one-party state, maintaining close ties with the Soviet Union and the Communist bloc. Several thousand Cuban troops remained in the country to combat UNITA fighters and bolster the regime's security.

In 1990, the MPLA abandoned its Marxist-Leninist ideology and declared social democracy as its official ideology. The MPLA won the 1992 general election, but the results were rejected by eight opposition parties, and hostilities resumed. The civil war continued until 2002 when UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi was killed, and a ceasefire was agreed upon.

Since the end of the civil war, the MPLA has continued to dominate subsequent elections, albeit by diminishing margins. The party won 51% of the vote in the 2022 general election, which was the tightest in Angola's history. The MPLA has been accused of human rights violations, including arbitrary arrest, detention, and torture by international organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.

The MPLA's core base includes the Ambundu ethnic group and the educated intelligentsia of Luanda. The party has implemented economic reforms to promote diversification and reduce dependence on the oil sector, which has left the country with high levels of poverty and inequality. Angola operates under a multi-party system, and the MPLA has been in power since independence, demonstrating a commitment to peace and stability in the region.

Human rights abuses and press freedom

Angola has a history of human rights abuses, with authorities often using excessive or unnecessary force to prevent the right to peaceful assembly. For instance, in 2022, the Angolan National Police (PNA) prevented a vigil from taking place in the capital, Luanda, and in Benguela, citing public security concerns. This was followed by the arrest of 12 young people who had gathered to demand the release of activists they considered political prisoners. The police also stopped a protest by activists calling for the release of Gilson da Silva Moreira, who had been given a suspended prison sentence for "outraging the state, its symbols, and organs".

The right to freedom of association is also threatened in Angola. In 2022, the Status of Non-Governmental Organizations bill (NGO bill) was approved by parliament. NGOs criticised the bill, arguing that it would limit their right to association and give the executive excessive power to interfere in their activities.

In addition to this, Angola has been criticised for its treatment of journalists. While the country's constitution enshrines freedom of the press, journalists who dare to report on government abuse of power and mismanagement are often prosecuted and handed heavy sentences. In 2022, Reporters Without Borders ranked Angola 125th out of 180 countries on the World Press Freedom Index, a drop of 26 places from the previous year.

Journalists in Angola, especially those working for independent and privately-owned media outlets, are victims of threats and attacks. In 2022, at least three journalists were victims of break-ins or equipment theft. Reporters may also be arrested arbitrarily, especially while covering protests. Many newspapers have been declared bankrupt or have had to close due to financial difficulties caused by the exorbitant costs of radio and TV licenses, which act as a barrier to pluralism.

Angola has also been criticised for its treatment of ethnic minorities, who are poorly represented in the media and in coverage of issues concerning them.

Angola's role in international relations

Post-Independence and the Civil War (1975-2002):

During the Cold War, Angola was aligned with the Eastern Bloc, particularly the Soviet Union, Libya, and Cuba. This alignment shaped its early international relations. However, the country's prolonged civil war (1975-2002) among competing factions backed by different countries, including the US, Soviet Union, Cuba, China, and South Africa, led to instability and hindered its international engagement.

Improving International Relations and Diplomatic Efforts:

Since the end of the civil war in 2002, Angola has focused on improving its relationships with Western countries, especially the United States, and cultivating ties with other Portuguese-speaking nations. In 1993, Angola established formal diplomatic relations with the US, marking a shift in its foreign policy orientation. Angola has also been an active member of regional organizations such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which has helped enhance its ties with neighbouring countries.

Economic and Trade Relations:

Angola's economy is heavily dependent on oil exports, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil demand. The country has sought to diversify its economy and attract foreign investment, particularly in the agricultural sector. Angola is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and has strong economic ties with China, Brazil, and other countries. It is also the third-largest trading partner of the US in Sub-Saharan Africa due to its petroleum exports.

Military and Security Engagement:

Angola has a strong and capable military and has been an active participant in regional security initiatives. It has intervened militarily in neighbouring countries, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), to support specific factions or governments. The US has provided significant military assistance to Angola in recent years, with a focus on capacity building and maritime security.

Bilateral Relations with the United States:

The US-Angola bilateral relationship has deepened in recent years, marked by high-level engagements and cooperation in various sectors. The US has supported Angola's efforts to improve governance, promote economic prosperity, enhance health outcomes, and consolidate peace and security. The two countries have collaborated on initiatives such as the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI).

Regional Leadership and Peacekeeping:

Angola has positioned itself as a regional leader and demonstrated a commitment to peace and stability in Africa, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It has also contributed to peacekeeping efforts and worked with the United Nations Security Council to impose sanctions on rebel groups.

Multilateral Engagement:

Angola is a member of several international organizations, including the United Nations, African Union, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Trade Organization. It also plays an active role in regional organizations like the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) and SADC.

In summary, Angola's role in international relations has been marked by a transition from Cold War-era alignments to a more diverse and multifaceted engagement. The country's vast natural resources, particularly oil, have shaped its economic relations, while its commitment to regional peace and stability has influenced its security and diplomatic initiatives. Angola's international relations continue to evolve as it seeks to balance its domestic priorities with its engagement on the global stage.

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