The Fragile Fabric Of Afghanistan: Navigating The Narrative Of A Failing State

Afghanistan's status as a failed state has been a topic of discussion for many years. The country has been deemed a failed state due to its history of political instability, corruption, and lack of effective governance. The collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban's takeover in August 2021 have further exacerbated the situation. The international community's attempts at state-building and democracy-building have faced challenges due to the complex social and cultural dynamics in Afghanistan. The country's diverse ethnic makeup and fragmented society have often been at odds with the centralised political institutions imposed on the country.

The failure of the Afghan state has had significant consequences, including a humanitarian crisis, economic freefall, and a potential refugee exodus. With the extension of sanctions and the freezing of Afghan state assets, the country is facing immense economic challenges. Additionally, the Taliban's refusal to acknowledge and address the humanitarian crisis has further compounded the issues. The international community, especially the EU, is now faced with the difficult task of preventing a complete state collapse and addressing the urgent humanitarian needs of the Afghan people.

The role of the US and its partners in Afghanistan's collapse

The US and its partners played a significant role in Afghanistan's collapse, with policy choices and mistakes in state-building efforts over two decades being largely to blame. Here is an analysis of the role of the US and its partners in Afghanistan's collapse:

Unsuitable Political Institutions

The US-backed Afghan republic collapsed due to the imposition of highly centralised political institutions that were incompatible with the diverse societal values and norms of the country. The 2004 Constitution created a system that concentrated power in the central government, providing citizens with limited opportunities for meaningful participation and oversight. This disconnect between the US intervention and the realities of Afghan citizens widened over time, eroding trust in the government.

Misguided International Aid

International donors, including the US, poured billions of dollars into Afghanistan with minimal monitoring and ineffective implementation strategies. Rather than strengthening state institutions, parallel structures were often created, further undermining the legitimacy of the Afghan state. Additionally, the massive influx of aid fostered corruption and created a rentier state, with little accountability to society.

Neglect of Customary Governance

The international community, including the US, failed to recognise and support Afghanistan's robust system of informal governance rooted in custom. Instead, they sought to undermine customary authority in favour of centralised state control. This disconnect from the traditional, decentralised political order further alienated the Afghan people and hindered democratic development.

Ineffective Security Sector Support

The US and its allies failed to build effective Afghan security forces despite significant investments. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) lacked the necessary political will to fight, as soldiers felt disconnected from and disenfranchised by the central government. The collapse of the ANDSF was not due to technical issues but a result of the political crisis and lack of legitimacy.

Inadequate Peace Negotiations

The US engaged in unilateral peace negotiations with the Taliban, signing the Doha Agreement in 2020, which committed to the withdrawal of US and NATO forces. This agreement was perceived as a betrayal by the Afghan government and emboldened the Taliban, who rapidly gained territory. The US and its partners were unable to effectively broker a negotiated end to the war, and the Afghan government collapsed before the withdrawal deadline.

Leadership Failures

The US and its partners supported Afghan leaders who contributed to state collapse through their intemperate and authoritarian rule. President Ashraf Ghani, for example, centralised control, discriminated against ethnic minorities, and failed to address widespread corruption. The international community's support for such leaders, despite their undemocratic practices, undermined the legitimacy of the Afghan state.

Lack of Clear US Strategy

The US lacked a coherent strategy in Afghanistan, focusing primarily on massive aid investments without effective monitoring or constraints. The abrupt withdrawal of aid following the Taliban takeover further devastated the economy, leading to a banking crisis and humanitarian disaster.

The consequences of the collapse of the Afghan state

The collapse of the Afghan state has had far-reaching consequences, affecting the country's economy, security, and society. Here are some key impacts:

Economic Crisis

The Afghan economy has been in freefall since the collapse, exacerbated by the extension of Taliban-specific sanctions to the entire Afghan state and the cutoff of non-humanitarian aid. The freezing of Afghan state assets held in the US and Europe has further crippled the economy. The Taliban government's refusal to acknowledge the scale of the crisis and take effective measures to address it has worsened the situation.

Humanitarian Disaster

Afghanistan is currently facing the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with millions of children at risk of starvation. The crisis has put immense strain on Afghan society, leading to a potential refugee exodus. The UN has launched the largest single-country aid appeal in its history to address the dire situation.

Loss of Basic Rights and Freedoms

The Taliban's takeover has resulted in a regression of liberal and democratic rights and freedoms, particularly for women. Girls are once again barred from secondary schools, and women face restrictions on education, employment, and mobility. The Taliban has also reintroduced harsh punishments, such as flogging, amputations, and mass executions.

Security Threats

The Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K) has expanded its presence in Afghanistan and continues to target civilians with suicide attacks. The Taliban's inability to effectively counter this threat further endangers the lives of Afghans.

International Isolation

The international community has not recognized the Taliban government due to concerns over its restrictive laws, particularly regarding women's rights. This isolation has complicated efforts to obtain external assistance to address the country's economic and humanitarian crises.

Reversal of Gains

The collapse has led to a reversal of the gains made over the last two decades in areas such as education, women's rights, and democratic governance. The Taliban's extreme laws and repressive policies have drawn harsh international criticism.

Humanitarian Aid Challenges

The Taliban has made it difficult for aid agencies to operate, harassing aid workers and banning women from working for the UN. The loss of donors due to anger over Taliban policies has further reduced the availability of aid.

Food Insecurity and Famine

Afghanistan faces severe food shortages due to climate change, natural disasters, and soaring food prices resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war. The Taliban's crackdown on opium production has also deprived communities of a crucial source of revenue, exacerbating food insecurity.

The Taliban's approach to governance

Since retaking power in 2021, the Taliban have struggled to transition from an insurgent group to a functional government. They have assumed the offices of the former government but have retained many traits that defined their armed insurgency over the past 20 years. The Taliban have yet to articulate a clear vision for the country and have prioritised maintaining internal cohesion and demonstrating authority domestically.

The Taliban's governance has been characterised by a suppression of free speech and political activity, as well as a rollback of rights for women and girls. They have discouraged women from returning to work in several sectors and disbanded the Ministry of Women's Affairs, replacing it with the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. This ministry has been responsible for enforcing strict dictates on social behaviour, banning music, television, and gender integration.

The Taliban have also struggled to manage challenges in urban areas and regions home to non-Pashtun ethnic communities, particularly marginalised communities. They have responded to threats from other armed groups, including the Islamic State, with overwhelming force, resulting in extrajudicial killings and a consolidation of control over most of the country.

In terms of foreign relations, the Taliban have expressed a desire for international recognition and the unfreezing of assets. However, they have been reluctant to make concessions to Western donors and have prioritised internal cohesion over addressing international concerns. The Taliban's refusal to acknowledge the scale of the humanitarian crisis and their ideologically driven policies have further complicated the world's reception and approach to their government.

Overall, the Taliban's approach to governance has been marked by a focus on consolidating power and enforcing their interpretation of Islamic law, with limited regard for international concerns or the rights of Afghan citizens, particularly women and minority groups.

The impact of sanctions on the Afghan economy

Afghanistan's economy has been in a state of freefall since the Taliban takeover in August 2021. The country is now facing the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with millions of children at risk of starvation. The extension of sanctions on the Taliban to the entire Afghan state has been identified as a primary cause of the economic collapse, alongside the cutoff of non-humanitarian aid and the freezing of Afghan state assets.

The sanctions have disrupted the flow of funds and resources for food, medicine, and other relief aid, causing significant humanitarian concerns. The restrictions have discouraged banks from facilitating transactions, and the freezing of assets has prevented the Central Bank of Afghanistan from accessing its foreign currency reserves, leading to a massive liquidity crisis and shortages of banknotes.

The impact of sanctions has been exacerbated by the Taliban's policies restricting women's education and participation in the workforce, which have aggravated poverty and hindered economic recovery. The combination of sanctions and Taliban policies has resulted in a devastating economic crisis, with nearly 20 million Afghans experiencing hunger and the country facing the risk of outright famine.

To address the situation, there have been calls for alternative mechanisms for more targeted sanctions, the revival of central banking functions, and the provision of targeted assistance to the Afghan public sector. However, the complex dynamics between Western powers and the Taliban have created a logjam, with each side demanding concessions from the other.

The economic sanctions and the broader political situation have severe implications for the Afghan people, particularly women and girls, who face greater obstacles in obtaining essential resources. The crisis has led to an increasing risk of child marriage and reports of families "selling" girls out of desperation.

The future of Afghanistan's economy remains uncertain, and the impact of sanctions will continue to be felt as long as the political stalemate persists.

The future of the Afghan people

The international community must take steps to prevent a failed state and the erosion of rights gains. The EU and its member states should adopt alternative mechanisms for more targeted sanctions, help restore central banking functions, and provide support for specific state functions that can ameliorate the humanitarian crisis.

The Taliban has taken some steps to form an "inclusive" government, but it has yet to include any women in top government positions. The group has allowed women who worked in the public sector under the previous regime to return to roles in health, education, and security. However, it has failed to appoint any women as ministers or deputy ministers, and there is a risk that the Taliban will further cut the public sector, reducing it to a skeletal version of a state apparatus manned exclusively by Taliban loyalists.

The international community must provide targeted assistance to the Afghan public sector to test the Taliban's willingness to cooperate with international demands and prevent a collapse of public services. The EU has committed over €268 million to projects for health, education, and food security, but these funds are not delivered through state structures and thus give the government little incentive to alter policy. Offering some development aid would give the EU and member states more leverage over the government.

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