Belarus' Stability: A Precarious Balance Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Belarus is an upper-middle-income economy with a highly centralized post-Soviet transition economy that has retained centralised political and economic controls and rejected privatisation efforts.

The country has been described as a welfare state or market socialist with a focus on full employment and a dominant public sector. Belarus is the world's 74th-largest economy by GDP and has been ranked 53rd from 189 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index.

However, the country's political stability has been called into question following the 2020 post-election crisis and the subsequent crackdown on civil society and pro-democracy leaders. The Lukashenko regime has been accused of authoritarianism and human rights abuses, with more than 35,000 people detained and over 480 political prisoners held since the 2020 election.

The country's political stability index has declined in recent years, falling from -0.75 points in 2021 to -0.79 points in 2022. This is well below the world average of -0.07 points and Belarus' historical average of 0.08 points from 1996 to 2022.

The economic situation in Belarus is also precarious, with the country facing severe financial and trade sanctions from the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada. The Belarusian economy is dominated by a few dozen large state-owned enterprises, with high dependence on the Russian market. The impact of sanctions and the country's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have further damaged the economy, with a decline in GDP and a reduction in foreign investment.

Overall, the stability of Belarus is a complex issue that encompasses political, economic, and social factors. While the country has achieved notable successes in areas such as healthcare and education, the recent decline in political stability and the economic challenges have raised concerns about the country's future prospects.

Political stability

Belarus has been described as an upper-middle-income economy with a highly centralised post-Soviet transition economy that has rejected privatisation efforts in favour of maintaining centralised political and economic controls by the state.

The country has been led by Alexander Lukashenko since 1994, who has been accused of authoritarianism and suppressing political opposition. In 2020, Lukashenko was re-elected for a sixth term, which led to mass protests and international condemnation of the violent crackdown on protestors and journalists.

Since the 2020 election, the political situation in Belarus has been unstable, with international sanctions imposed on the country and its leaders. The European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada have all imposed financial and trade sanctions on Belarus, which has damaged its economy.

The Belarusian economy is dominated by a few dozen large state-owned enterprises, which are controlled by Lukashenko. The country has a high degree of ethnic and religious homogeneity, and its workforce is well-educated, although there are concerns about a declining quality of education due to domestic political repression and brain drain.

The political situation in Belarus remains tense and unpredictable, with ongoing repression of civil society and dissent. The country's future political trajectory is uncertain, but it is likely to remain closely aligned with Russia, which has provided political, military, and economic support to the Lukashenko regime.

Economic sanctions

Belarus's economy is dominated by a few dozen large state-owned enterprises, which are kept afloat by state banks that cover their losses. This has resulted in a stagnant economy, with no growth since 2012. The country's GDP per capita was USD 8,000 in 2013, but the IMF predicts it will be just USD 7,000 in 2024.

In 2021, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada imposed severe financial and trade sanctions on Belarus. These sanctions, along with Belarus's involvement in the Ukraine crisis, have had a significant impact on the country's economy.

The EU has imposed a number of restrictive measures against Belarus, including individual and economic sanctions, restrictions on trade, a SWIFT ban for five Belarusian banks, a prohibition on transactions with the Central Bank of Belarus, limits on financial inflows from Belarus to the EU, and a ban on the provision of euro-denominated banknotes to Belarus. These sanctions target key figures in the political leadership, judicial branch, and economic actors, including President Aleksandr Lukashenko.

The US Treasury has also sanctioned three of Lukashenko's alleged cashiers, who manage his energy, tobacco, and construction businesses.

The impact of these sanctions has been mitigated to some extent by Belarus's close economic ties with Russia, which accounts for almost half of Belarusian trade. Russia has provided Belarus with cheap energy, access to its market, and financing. However, the Western sanctions are expected to deprive Belarus of USD 4 billion in export revenues and external financing.

In response to the sanctions and the political crisis in Belarus, the country has deepened its economic, military, and political integration with Russia within the framework of the Union State. This has resulted in a reorientation of trade flows and logistics chains towards countries in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.

The Belarusian economy is highly dependent on a few key industries, such as potash, oil refineries, and fertiliser production. The sanctions have targeted these industries, with restrictions on the supply of machinery and raw materials, as well as procurement restrictions on wood, cement, iron, steel, and rubber originating in Belarus.

The financial sector has also been targeted, with restrictions on Belarusian financial institutions' access to the SWIFT network and limits on the provision of specialised financial messaging services.

Overall, the economic sanctions on Belarus have had a significant impact on the country's economy, and the country's increasing isolation from the West has pushed it further into the orbit of Russia.

Foreign relations

Belarus's foreign policy is guided by the principles of equality of states, non-use of force or the threat of force, inviolability of borders, peaceful settlement of disputes, non-interference in internal affairs, and other universally recognised principles and norms of international law. The country's foreign policy objectives include promoting a stable, fair, and democratic world order based on these principles.

Relations with Russia

Russia is the largest and most important partner for Belarus in the political and economic fields. Belarus's relations with Russia play a fundamental role in its efforts to build up its independence. The two countries have a "special relationship", which many experts believe is the key reason why Belarus has managed to maintain its economic expansion and sustain its specific rights in the system of international relations.

The framework for the Union of Russia and Belarus was set out in the Treaty on the Formation of a Community of Russia and Belarus (1996), the Treaty on Russia-Belarus Union, the Union Charter (1997), and the Treaty of the Formation of a Union State (1999). These treaties contain commitments to a monetary union, equal rights, single citizenship, and a common defence and foreign policy.

However, relations between the two countries appeared to be strained immediately before the 2020 presidential election, with President Lukashenko describing his political opponents as agents of Russia. Belarus also arrested 33 Russian citizens at the end of July 2020, claiming they were Russian mercenaries sent to destabilise the election process. Although nearly all the 33 Russians were released in the days after the election, this incident highlighted the complicated nature of the relationship and the potential for conflict.

Relations with the European Union

Following the recognition of Belarus as an independent state in December 1991, relations between the European Community and Belarus initially experienced steady progress. The signature of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) in 1995 signalled a commitment to political, economic, and trade cooperation. However, progress stalled in 1996 after setbacks to the development of democracy and the Drazdy conflict.

In 1997, the Council of the European Union decided against Belarus, and relations remained strained. In 1999, the EU adopted a step-by-step approach, whereby sanctions would be gradually lifted upon the fulfillment of certain benchmarks.

In 2005, the EU imposed travel restrictions on officials from Belarus responsible for fraudulent parliamentary elections and a referendum, as well as human rights violations during subsequent political demonstrations. The European Parliament released a statement denouncing the Belarusian government as a dictatorship and expressing concern over the suppression of independent media outlets and the fraudulent referendum.

In 2009, Belarus and the EU agreed on cooperation in the Eastern Partnership. However, Belarus withdrew from the Partnership in 2011. Relations further deteriorated in 2012 when Belarus expelled all Swedish diplomats and closed its embassy in Stockholm after a Swedish public relations firm released teddy bears carrying pro-democracy flyers over Minsk.

Relations with the United States

The United States has encouraged Belarus to conclude and adhere to agreements with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on macroeconomic stabilisation and related reform measures, as well as to undertake increased privatisation and create a favourable climate for business and investment.

However, relations between the two countries have been strained, with the United States passing the Belarus Democracy Act of 2004 and imposing restrictions on the travel of President Lukashenko and members of his inner circle, as well as economic sanctions. In 2008, the Belarusian government ejected the US Ambassador from the country, and the two countries continue to have a tense relationship.

Relations with Other Countries

Due to strained relations with the United States, the European Union, and occasional disputes with Russia, Belarus aims to develop better relations with countries in other regions, including the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America. Belarus has embassies in many countries around the world and is a member of various international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and the North Atlantic Cooperation Council.

Civil society

In 2015, President Lukashenko imposed a "social parasite tax" on Belarusians without legitimate employment, which led to mass civic reaction in the form of peaceful public protests in February-March 2017. Thousands of people protested the new law, resulting in mass detentions but also a suspension of the decree until 2019. This incident highlighted the power of civil society in Belarus to mobilize and challenge government policies.

The Belarusian civil society landscape is diverse, with various organizations and initiatives working to promote change and improve the lives of citizens. In 2016, the Press Club Belarus was established to serve as a platform for the exchange of ideas and opinions between journalists, politicians, experts, and opinion leaders. The same year, the City Urban Show, a reality show that aims to motivate wider civic activism, was launched. Environmental initiatives, such as Zrobim!, have also gained traction, with thousands of volunteers participating in cleaning up illegal dumps and recreational areas.

However, the work of civil society organizations is often met with resistance and repression from the state. Since 2021, independent media outlets have been criminalized, and journalists have been forced to leave the country or face prosecution. The Belarusian authorities have also targeted human rights activists, political activists, and other civil society groups with constant bureaucratic hurdles, harassment, and prosecution. The COVID-19 pandemic further complicated the work of civil society, with restrictions on gatherings and an economic downturn affecting their activities.

Despite the challenges, civil society in Belarus remains resilient and continues to play a crucial role in advocating for change and protecting the rights of citizens. They have utilized online platforms and international partnerships to amplify their voices and seek support from the international community. The work of civil society is essential to hold the government accountable and contribute to policy-making, and their efforts have had some impact, such as the suspension of the "social parasite tax" and the release of some political prisoners.

In conclusion, civil society in Belarus faces significant obstacles and repression from the state, but it continues to play a crucial role in advocating for change and protecting the rights of citizens. The diverse range of organizations and initiatives within civil society demonstrates the commitment and resilience of Belarusians to promote a more open and democratic society.

Military involvement

Belarus has been involved in several military activities in recent years, which have contributed to the country's instability. Here is an overview of Belarus's military involvement:

Russian-Ukrainian War

Belarus has played a significant role in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The country has provided its territory, airspace, and military infrastructure to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This has led to increased tensions with Western countries and further isolation on the international stage.

Provoking the Migration Crisis

In 2021, Belarus was accused of deliberately triggering a migration crisis on its border with the European Union. The country was alleged to have encouraged and facilitated the movement of migrants from the Middle East and Africa to its borders, causing a humanitarian crisis and increasing tensions with neighbouring countries.

Ryanair Plane Incident

In May 2021, Belarus forced a commercial airliner operated by Ryanair to land in Minsk, the country's capital. This incident led to the arrest of an opposition activist on board the flight and further isolated Belarus from Western countries.

Joint Military Exercises with Russia

Belarus has conducted joint military exercises with Russia, including the "Union Resolve-2022" drills. These exercises have raised concerns among neighbouring countries and have been viewed as a show of force and a potential threat to regional stability.

Crackdown on Domestic Opposition

The Belarusian government, led by President Alexander Lukashenko, has cracked down on political opponents and protesters. This has resulted in mass arrests, detentions, and reports of human rights violations. The opposition movement has been suppressed, and many activists have been forced into exile.

Arms Exports and Sanctions

Belarus has a significant arms industry and is a major exporter of weapons and military equipment. However, following the 2020 presidential election and the country's involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Belarus has faced sanctions from Western countries, including arms embargoes.

Military Presence in the Country

Russia has maintained a permanent military presence in Belarus, with Russian troops stationed in the country. This has raised concerns about Belarus's sovereignty and has led to tensions with neighbouring countries, particularly Ukraine.

Nuclear Weapons

There are reports of Russian tactical nuclear weapons being deployed in Belarus. This development has heightened tensions in the region and has been seen as a potential threat to European security.

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