A Troubling Census: Counting Afghanistan's Elusive Population

Afghanistan is a country with a population of around 43 million people as of 2024. The nation is composed of a multi-ethnic and multilingual society, reflecting its location astride historic trade and invasion routes between Central Asia, South Asia, and Western Asia. The population is growing at a rate of about 2.3% to 2.7% per year and is expected to reach 64.68 million by 2050 and 77 million by 2084. The country has a very young population, with a median age of around 17 to 18 years and approximately 46% of the population under 15 years of age. The capital city, Kabul, is the only city in Afghanistan with a population of over 1 million residents.

The population of Afghanistan in 2024 is estimated to be between 43,182,461 and 43,372,950

The population of Afghanistan is estimated to be between 43,182,461 and 43,372,950 in 2024. This estimate is based on projections of the latest United Nations data. The population has been growing steadily, with an annual growth rate of 2.33%. Afghanistan's population growth is driven by its high fertility rate of 4.56 births per woman, which is the highest outside of Africa. This has resulted in a very young population, with approximately 46% of Afghans under the age of 15 and a median age of 17 to 18.4 years.

The country is ethnically and linguistically diverse, with various ethnic groups such as Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, and smaller groups contributing to its multicultural society. The official languages are Persian (Dari) and Pashto, with Dari serving as the inter-ethnic lingua franca for the majority. Afghanistan's population is predominantly Muslim, with 80-89% practising Sunni Islam and 10-19% following Shia Islam.

Afghanistan's population is expected to continue growing and is projected to reach 64.68 million by 2050 and peak at 77.03 million in 2084 before slowly declining. However, the country faces challenges in terms of stability and economic development due to population growth outpacing economic progress. Issues such as access to clean drinking water, improved sanitation, and low literacy rates are prevalent.

As of May 11, 2024, the estimated population of Afghanistan is 43,204,880. This estimate is based on Worldometer's elaboration of the latest United Nations data. The population of Afghanistan has been estimated to be as low as 43,182,461 and as high as 43,372,950 in 2024, with the specific estimate depending on the source and their methodology. These estimates reflect the challenges of accurately determining the population in a country with a history of unstable conditions and a lack of reliable census data.

The population growth rate is 2.33% to 2.68% per year

Afghanistan's population is growing at a rate of 2.33% to 2.68% per year. This growth rate is significantly higher than the global average of 1.05%. The population of Afghanistan in 2023 was 42,239,854, and it is expected to reach 43,372,950 by July 1, 2024, according to the United Nations. This represents an increase of 2.68% from 2023 and a growth of 357.1% since 1960.

The high population growth rate in Afghanistan is due to several factors. Firstly, the country has a high fertility rate of 4.56 births per woman, which is the highest outside of Africa. This has resulted in a very young population, with approximately 46% of Afghans under the age of 15 and a median age of 17.0 to 18.4 years. Secondly, there has been a growing trend of urbanization, with an annual increase of 3.7% in the population of the country's larger cities. This is due to the return of over 5 million expatriates to Afghanistan in the last decade.

However, Afghanistan is also experiencing negative net migration due to internal conflicts, with more people emigrating from the country than immigrating. Additionally, the country has faced high mortality rates, with an infant mortality rate of 110 deaths per 1,000 births and a crude death rate of 7.3 per 1,000 people in 2021. Despite this, the population growth rate remains high due to the significant number of births.

The rapid population growth in Afghanistan poses challenges for the country's stability and economic development. With a high proportion of youth and a low median age, there is increased pressure on resources such as clean drinking water and improved sanitation facilities, which are already lacking. Additionally, the country struggles with low literacy rates, especially among women, further impacting its economic development.

The median age in Afghanistan is between 17 and 18.4 years

Afghanistan has a very young population, with a median age between 17 and 18.4 years. This is due to the country's high fertility rate of 4.56 births per woman, which is the highest outside of Africa. Approximately 46% of the population is under 15 years of age, and the average woman gives birth to five children in her lifetime.

The median age of the population of Afghanistan has been decreasing over time, falling from 19.44 years in 1950 to between 17 and 18.4 years today. This decreasing median age is indicative of a growing population, with more young people than older individuals. In fact, it is estimated that the population of Afghanistan will continue to grow until it reaches a peak of 77.03 million in 2084.

The large proportion of young people in Afghanistan presents both challenges and opportunities for the country. On the one hand, a "youth bulge" can lead to civil conflict and make it difficult to achieve democracy, especially if young people do not have access to education and livelihood opportunities. On the other hand, increasing levels of education for women can lead to decreased fertility rates, which can turn a youthful population into an advantage through what demographers call the "demographic dividend."

Despite the challenges, there have been improvements in schooling, health, and opportunities for young people in Afghanistan in recent years. Empowering Afghan youth to advocate for themselves and educating young girls and women are crucial investments for the country's future stability and economic development.

The sex ratio of the total population is 1.07 males per 1,000 females

Afghanistan's population is around 41 million as of 2023, with an estimated population of 43,204,880 as of May 2024. The sex ratio of the total population is 1.07 males per 1,000 females, or 1.072 males per 1,000 females according to another source. This means that there are slightly more males than females in the country.

To break this down further, there are approximately 21.88 million males and 21.49 million females in Afghanistan. This equates to 50.46% of the population being male and 49.54% being female. Afghanistan has around 397,000 more males than females.

The sex ratio varies depending on the age group in question. At birth, the sex ratio is 1.05 males per female. From ages 0-14, it is 1.03 males per female, and this ratio remains the same for those aged 15-24 and 25-54. For those aged 55-64, the ratio is 0.97 males per female, and for those aged 65 and over, it is 0.85 males per female.

The sex ratio of 1.07 males per 1,000 females is higher than the global sex ratio, which was approximately 1,016 males to 1,000 females as of 2023.

The literacy rate for the adult population is 38.2% to 38.39%

Afghanistan's population is approximately 43 million as of 2024. The literacy rate for the adult population (aged 15 and above) in Afghanistan is between 38.2% and 38.39%. This means that around 9.6 to 15.4 million adults in Afghanistan are literate, with the ability to read and write a simple statement about their everyday life. Numeracy, or the ability to perform basic arithmetic, is also often included in the definition of literacy.

The adult literacy rate in Afghanistan has been increasing over the years, growing at an average annual rate of 45.85%. In 1979, the adult literacy rate was only 18.2%, less than half of what it is today. Despite this improvement, the literacy rate in Afghanistan is still considered very low in comparison to other countries.

There is a significant gender disparity when it comes to literacy rates in Afghanistan. According to estimates, the literacy rate for males is between 51.99% and 52.06%, while for females, it is much lower, ranging from 22.6% to 29.8%. This disparity highlights the inequality in access to education and resources between males and females in Afghanistan.

The low literacy rate in Afghanistan, particularly among females, has implications for the country's economic development. Education and literacy are essential for adapting to the rapidly changing, technology-driven world. Without sufficient literacy and educational opportunities, Afghanistan may struggle to keep up with economic advancements and improvements.

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