**Afghanistan's Complex Insurgency: A Multi-Faceted Challenge**

Afghanistan has been in a state of active conflict since the 2001 War in Afghanistan, which saw the fall of the Taliban from power. The Taliban insurgency has been ongoing since then, with the group fighting against the Afghan government and US-led coalition forces. The Taliban is the predominant insurgent group in Afghanistan, with an estimated 60,000 fighters as of 2018. The Taliban control more than a third of the country and continue to make territorial gains.

In addition to the Taliban, there are several other insurgent and terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, including the Haqqani Network, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State. These groups have carried out attacks on civilian, military, and government targets, resulting in high numbers of casualties and a worsening humanitarian crisis. The complex nature of the conflict, with multiple insurgent groups and shifting alliances, has made it challenging for the Afghan government and international forces to establish peace and stability in the region.

The Taliban

Despite the Taliban's claims to have delivered on their commitment to fight ISIS and prevent Al-Qaeda from using Afghan soil to threaten U.S. security, recent reports indicate that Al-Qaeda has a safe haven under the Taliban and has increased freedom of action. The Taliban's relationship with Al-Qaeda remains close, posing a threat to regional and international security.

The Haqqani Network

HN is considered one of Afghanistan's most experienced and sophisticated insurgent organizations. The group has strong ties with the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and is believed to have several hundred core members. It is known for its use of suicide bombings and other deadly attacks, including the June 2011 assault on the Kabul Intercontinental Hotel and the 2017 truck bomb explosion in a crowded intersection in Kabul that killed over 150 people.

The United States designated HN as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2012 due to its involvement in the Afghan insurgency, attacks on US military and civilian personnel, and ties to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The group has also been sanctioned by the United Nations and banned by Pakistan in 2015. Despite these measures, HN remains a significant militant threat in Afghanistan and has been linked to several attacks in recent years.

Al-Qaeda and Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent

Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) is a branch of the Islamist militant organization Al-Qaeda. It was founded on 3 September 2014 by Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who announced the formation of the group in a 55-minute video posted online. AQIS aims to fight the governments of Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Myanmar and Bangladesh in order to establish an Islamic state and caliphate in the Indian Subcontinent.

AQIS is believed to be funded and resourced by Al-Qaeda Central. It has also received funding from private donors, charities, foundations, drug trafficking, state sponsors of terrorism, kidnappings for ransom, donations from individuals, charitable foundations, religious charities, and proceeds from counterfeit currency.

AQIS has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, United States, Canada, India, Pakistan, and Australia. It has been deemed a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the U.S. Department of State.

AQIS has been responsible for multiple terrorist attacks in Pakistan and Bangladesh, including the assassination of Brigadier Fazal Zahoor, a senior Pakistani Army official, on 2 September 2014. The group has also claimed responsibility for the murders of secular activists, writers, professors, and doctors in Bangladesh.

AQIS has largely been unable to carry out large-scale attacks and has struggled to gain traction and support outside of Pakistan. It has, however, been successful in carrying out assassinations of Pakistani military officials and anti-Al-Qaeda bloggers.

In June 2017, AQIS published a 20-page "Code of Conduct" which reiterated the group's goals of attacking military targets in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar, and Bangladesh. The document called for increased attacks on soldiers and Americans operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Despite its affiliation with Al-Qaeda, AQIS has been unable to gain a foothold in India. Analysts attribute this to India's democratic dispensation and the ideological disconnect within the Muslim population in India for the Wahhabi strand of Islam.

AQIS has also faced challenges in Bangladesh, where the hardline Islamist terror group Hefazat e-Islam has monopolized control and pledged to deny AQIS a foothold in the country.

Islamic State

ISIS-K is based in Afghanistan and composed primarily of former members of the Taliban. It is fighting against both the Afghan government and the Taliban.

ISIS-K subscribes to the Jihadi-Salafism ideology and plays up the 'purity' of its anti-idolatry credentials. The Taliban, on the other hand, subscribe to an alternative Sunni Islamic sectarian school, the Hanafi madhhab, which ISIS-K regards as deficient.

ISIS-K sees the Taliban as an irreconcilable enemy that needs to be militarily defeated. The enmity between the two groups has been aggravated by sustained military hostilities.

ISIS-K has recruited from the Pakistani insurgent group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, the weakened al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the post-Mullah Omar Afghan Taliban. It has also tapped into a crucial sectarian minority of Salafis in eastern Afghanistan and leveraged their rural networks to gain territorial control in the provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar.

ISIS-K's ultimate strategic end is to establish a "pure" Islamic system in Afghanistan. It has a strong local focus, including against the remaining diplomatic and developmental presence of the international community in Afghanistan. The group also appears to want to target Afghans who worked with the U.S. government and others in the international community.

ISIS-K's regional and transnational terrorism ambitions are also concerning. The group has a cadre of foreign fighters from South Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Europe. It has plotted some transnational attacks from Afghanistan, including in Europe.

ISIS-K is weaker than it was in 2019 but has morphed from an insurgency to a typical terrorist group. A February 2022 UN report estimated the number of ISIS-K fighters at around 4,000.

Northern Alliance

The Northern Alliance, also known as the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan (UIFSA), was a coalition of militias seeking to topple the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. It was a military alliance of groups that operated between early 1992 and 2001 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The Northern Alliance was formed in late 1996 against the Taliban government by opposition factions. It was dominated by ethnic Tajiks and received support from Iran, Russia, India, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, the United States, and Uzbekistan. The alliance was made up of an ethnically and religiously diverse group of rebel movements, including three non-Pashtun ethnic groups: Tajiks, Uzbeks, and the Hazaras.

The Northern Alliance fought a defensive war against the Taliban regime. In 2001, the tide turned in favour of the alliance. On September 11, 2001, members of al-Qaeda, a militant Islamist organization operating out of Afghanistan, hijacked and crashed four U.S. jetliners on U.S. soil, killing thousands of civilians. This led to the U.S. and its allies launching an intensive bombing campaign against the Taliban and providing significant logistical support to the Northern Alliance.

The Northern Alliance played a crucial role in establishing the post-Taliban government of Hamid Karzai in late 2001. However, the alliance subsequently dissolved into its respective factions. Several members of the alliance became prominent figures in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, which was formally installed in 2004.

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