The Great Afghan Exodus: A Nation's Flight For Survival

The U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending America's longest war, saw the evacuation of more than 120,000 civilians from the country. The evacuation effort, deemed a monumental accomplishment by Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, was carried out by the U.S. and its allies. The operation was fraught with challenges, including attacks by ISIS-K, a suicide bombing that killed 13 U.S. service members, and desperate Afghans swarming the Kabul airport in an attempt to flee the country.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan

The Doha deal was criticized for giving the Taliban everything they wanted without getting much in return. It excluded the Afghan government and emboldened the Taliban, ultimately weakening the Afghan government.

When Biden took office, he was faced with the choice of either following through with the deal or risking American lives by extending the deadline. He chose the former, announcing in April 2021 that the US would withdraw its troops by September 11, 2021.

The withdrawal was chaotic and tumultuous, marked by scenes of desperation at the Kabul airport as thousands of Afghans tried to flee the country. The US and its allies evacuated over 120,000 civilians, including 6,000 Americans, in a massive airlift operation.

The final US military plane left Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, marking the end of America's longest war. The withdrawal left Afghanistan in disarray and uncertainty under renewed Taliban rule.

The Taliban celebrated their victory, firing guns into the air and walking across the Kabul airport runway. They now face the challenge of governing a poor and polarized country, plagued by food and cash shortages, and the threat of terrorist groups.

The US State Department released a report in June 2023 detailing the failings of the Trump and Biden administrations during the withdrawal. It found that the decisions of both administrations to withdraw troops had detrimental consequences and that there was insufficient consideration of worst-case scenarios.

The report was criticized for being defensive and not taking accountability for the debacle. It placed blame on the Trump administration and the Doha deal while failing to acknowledge the agency of the Biden administration in the manner of the withdrawal.

The withdrawal has had significant consequences for Afghanistan, with the economy collapsing and the Taliban imposing restrictions on civil society, particularly impacting women and girls. Thousands of Afghans who assisted the US and its allies remain in the country, facing retribution from the Taliban.

The US has continued diplomatic efforts to secure safe passage for Americans and Afghans who wish to leave. However, the future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, with the Taliban yet to uphold their commitments to allow safe passage and respect human rights.

The Taliban's victory

Strategic Factors

The Taliban's strategic approach was a key contributor to their success. They effectively integrated military and non-military tools to pursue their objectives. They outlined specific goals and lines of effort, including isolating the Afghan military, targeting cohesion through propaganda, employing terror tactics, and negotiating to buy time. The Taliban also excelled at using social media and decentralized commands, allowing local commanders to exploit opportunities and maintain battlefield momentum.

Political Factors

The political landscape played a significant role in the Taliban's favor. The peace deal negotiated between the Taliban and the Trump administration, excluding the Afghan government, undermined the Ghani administration and made it difficult to maintain unity. This deal also constrained US military power and signaled to regional actors to prepare for the end of the Ghani regime. Additionally, the Taliban capitalized on the lack of a strong central government in Afghanistan, exploiting traditional ethnic, tribal, and familial loyalties to negotiate surrenders and build support.

Military Factors

The Taliban's military tactics were pivotal in their victory. They adapted their strategy, transitioning from a shadowy insurgent network to a complex organization managing tens of thousands of fighters. They effectively isolated the Afghan security forces, taking advantage of their dispersed units and disrupting their ground lines of communication. The Taliban also negotiated surrenders and exploited captured military equipment for propaganda, further demoralizing Afghan forces.

The evacuation of civilians

The evacuation was carried out by the U.S. military, with support from diplomats and intelligence professionals. They faced enormous crowds of people trying to leave the country and the threat of attack from ISIS-K, a sworn enemy of the Taliban. Despite these challenges, the evacuation was a success, with more people rescued than initially thought possible.

The majority of the evacuees were Afghan civilians, many of whom had worked for the U.S. military or government in various roles. These Afghans were admitted to the U.S. under either the Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program or as "parolees" under the Immigration and Nationality Act. SIVs are reserved for individuals who worked for the U.S. government and provided "faithful and valuable service." Parolees are admitted at the discretion of the Secretary of Homeland Security for "urgent humanitarian reasons" and are typically granted a two-year stay.

In total, over 70,000 Afghan evacuees were admitted to the U.S., with the rest resettled in other countries. Many were initially housed on U.S. military bases before being permanently resettled. This included bases in Qatar, Germany, and the United Arab Emirates, which served as transit points for the evacuation.

The evacuation was not without its challenges and controversies. There were reports of violence and repression by the Taliban, despite their promises of peace. A suicide bombing by ISIS-K at the Kabul airport killed over 180 people, including 13 U.S. service members. There were also reports of civilian casualties from U.S. drone strikes targeting ISIS-K. In addition, not everyone who wanted to leave Afghanistan was able to do so, and there were concerns about the fate of those left behind, particularly women and girls, and Afghans who had worked with the U.S.

The evacuation and resettlement process also faced bureaucratic challenges and delays, especially for those admitted as parolees. Many parolees have sought permanent residency by claiming asylum, but the process has been slow, causing anxiety and uncertainty.

Overall, the evacuation of civilians from Afghanistan was a complex and challenging operation that brought tens of thousands of people to safety. However, it also left many behind and created new challenges for those who were resettled, particularly those with uncertain immigration status.

The future of Afghanistan

The Taliban's swift takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 marked the end of the US's longest war and raised questions about the country's future. The US and its allies evacuated over 120,000 civilians, including US citizens and Afghans who had worked with them. However, it is estimated that hundreds of Americans and thousands of vulnerable Afghans were left behind.

The Taliban's return to power has had a devastating impact on the country. Millions of Afghans are facing food shortages, and basic services such as healthcare and education have been disrupted. The situation is particularly dire for women and girls, who have been excluded from schools and workplaces and subjected to restrictive dress codes and travel rules. The Taliban's harsh interpretation of Islamic law has also resulted in public floggings and executions.

The humanitarian crisis has been exacerbated by an economic collapse, with foreign aid and assets frozen and the country's foreign reserves depleted. The United Nations has warned that half of Afghanistan's population of about 40 million is facing acute food shortages, and the World Food Programme has said that 23 million people are suffering from high levels of food insecurity.

The international community has a crucial role to play in addressing the crisis. However, it is unclear how much influence external actors will have on the Taliban. The Taliban has shown little willingness to compromise on issues such as women's rights and has resisted calls to form an inclusive government.

Neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, Iran, and Russia, have a vested interest in preventing a further deterioration of the situation and have called for humanitarian aid and economic support for Afghanistan. However, there are concerns that these countries may seek to exploit the crisis for their own geopolitical advantage.

The human cost of war

The war in Afghanistan began in 2001, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States. The initial goal was to bring Osama bin Laden to justice and to degrade the terrorist threat posed by Al Qaeda. Over time, the mission evolved to include counterinsurgency and nation-building efforts.

The human cost of this war was immense. According to the Costs of War Project at Brown University, more than 2,400 U.S. military personnel and nearly 50,000 Afghan civilians lost their lives. In addition, there were tens of thousands of casualties among U.S. contractors, the Afghan military and national police, insurgents, and others. The physical and mental toll of the war extended beyond those killed and injured, with many veterans and their families experiencing the effects of deployment, separation, and trauma.

The final days of the U.S. presence in Afghanistan were marked by chaos and bloodshed. As troops attempted to stave off attacks by ISIS-K, they coordinated a massive exodus of people out of the country. The evacuation effort, led by the U.S. and its allies, successfully airlifted more than 120,000 civilians to safety. However, it was not without tragedy. On August 26, 2021, a suicide bombing at the Kabul airport killed 13 U.S. service members and dozens of Afghans.

The war in Afghanistan had far-reaching consequences, impacting not only those who served but also their families and communities. It left a legacy of trauma, grief, and loss that will be felt for generations. The true human cost of this war is incalculable and will continue to unfold in the years to come.

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