Nato's Deadly Toll In Afghanistan: Examining Civilian Casualties

The War in Afghanistan has resulted in a devastating loss of civilian life. While there is no single official figure for the number of civilians killed by NATO forces since 2001, estimates for specific years or periods have been published by independent organizations. According to these estimates, the number of civilians killed by NATO forces in Afghanistan ranges from 408 to 478, with Professor Marc W. Herold of the University of New Hampshire estimating the number to be at least 653–769. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported that in 2008, 828 Afghan civilians were killed by international-led military forces, with 64% of those deaths occurring due to airstrikes. Overall, the war in Afghanistan has resulted in the deaths of over 70,000 civilians, with the conflict continuing to destroy lives due to war-induced breakdowns in the economy, public health, security, and infrastructure.

US-led military actions

The US-led war in Afghanistan, dubbed "Operation Enduring Freedom", has resulted in a significant number of civilian casualties. While there is no single official figure for the overall number of civilians killed, various organisations have provided estimates for specific years or periods. Here is an overview of the impact of US-led military actions on Afghan civilians:

Direct Civilian Casualties

The war in Afghanistan has resulted in substantial direct civilian casualties. According to Professor Marc W. Herold of the University of New Hampshire, between 3,100 and 3,600 civilians were directly killed by US-led forces between October 7, 2001, and June 3, 2003. This estimate includes only "impact deaths" and does not take into account deaths that occurred later due to injuries or indirect consequences. The Project on Defense Alternatives estimated that in the three months between October 7, 2001, and January 1, 2002, at least 1,000–1,300 civilians were directly killed by the US-led aerial bombing campaign.

Indirect Civilian Casualties

The war has also led to numerous indirect civilian deaths due to factors such as disease, malnutrition, loss of access to food and water, and infrastructure breakdown. According to the Costs of War Project, the war in Afghanistan killed approximately 176,000 people, including 46,319 civilians. However, the death toll is likely higher when considering indirect deaths. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program reported a higher figure of 212,191 deaths. Additionally, the Costs of War Project estimated that up to 360,000 people may have died indirectly due to the war, based on contemporary conflict data.

Airstrikes and Child Casualties

Airstrikes by US and Afghan forces have resulted in significant civilian casualties, with children being disproportionately affected. Between 2016 and 2020, there were 3,977 total civilian casualties from airstrikes, including 2,122 deaths and 1,855 injuries. During this period, 1,598 children were among the casualties, with 785 killed and 813 injured. The majority of civilian casualties from airstrikes (62%) were caused by international forces. The rules of engagement for airstrikes were relaxed in 2017, leading to a tripling of overall casualties from international airstrikes between 2017 and 2019.

Impact on Women and Children

The war has had a severe impact on women and children. In the first half of 2021, a record number of women and children were killed or wounded in Afghanistan. Women and children accounted for 46% of civilian casualties during this period, with 32% being children. The extensive use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and targeted killings have contributed to the high number of casualties among women and children.

Long-term Effects

The war in Afghanistan has had long-term effects on the country and its people. It has led to the breakdown of the economy, public health infrastructure, and security, as well as increased malnutrition and poverty. The war has also left Afghan land contaminated with unexploded ordnance and landmines, which continue to harm and kill civilians, especially children. Mental health issues are prevalent, with two-thirds of Afghans reported to be suffering from mental health problems.

Airstrikes

The use of airstrikes in Afghanistan has been a source of friction between the Afghan government and foreign forces, with Afghan leaders repeatedly pleading with foreign military forces to avoid civilian casualties. In 2007, the US and NATO announced changes in tactics to reduce civilian casualties, including employing smaller munitions and delaying attacks where civilians might be harmed. Despite these changes, civilian casualties from airstrikes have continued to occur, with human rights organizations expressing concern about the impact of airstrikes on civilian populations.

The armed conflict in Afghanistan is governed by international humanitarian law, which requires warring parties to take all feasible precautions to minimize harm to civilians. While the use of airstrikes may be necessary in certain situations, there are concerns that airstrikes have been used disproportionately and without adequate regard for civilian lives. Human Rights Watch has urged the US and NATO to adopt measures to reduce civilian casualties from airstrikes, including improving intelligence and targeting capabilities and providing timely and adequate compensation to victims.

The issue of civilian casualties in Afghanistan is complex, and it is important to consider the actions of all parties involved, including insurgent groups such as the Taliban. According to the United Nations, anti-government elements were responsible for the majority of civilian casualties in Afghanistan in 2009, 2010, and 2011. However, the use of airstrikes by international forces has had a devastating impact on Afghan civilians, and efforts to minimize civilian casualties must remain a priority.

The impact on women and children

The war in Afghanistan has had a devastating impact on women and children. In the first half of 2021, a record number of women and children were killed or wounded in Afghanistan, with women and children making up close to half of all civilian casualties. This was a 47% increase compared to the same period in 2020. The leading causes of these casualties were the use of improvised explosive devices, ground engagements, targeted killings, and airstrikes.

The UN has expressed deep concern about the deliberate targeting of civilians, including women and children. One particularly shocking incident occurred on May 8, 2021, when an attack outside a school in Kabul resulted in more than 300 civilian casualties, mostly schoolgirls, with 85 killed. This incident highlighted the devastating impact of the conflict on the most vulnerable members of society.

The war has also had indirect consequences for women and children. It has exacerbated issues such as poverty, malnutrition, poor sanitation, lack of access to healthcare, and environmental degradation. As a result, Afghanistan continues to be one of the deadliest places in the world to be a child, and women have also paid a heavy price, with thousands of deaths and injuries since 2010. The war has disrupted access to education, with millions of children out of school, and it has also led to internal displacement and forced migration, with millions of Afghans seeking refuge in neighbouring countries.

The impact of the war extends beyond the direct violence and has far-reaching consequences for the health, safety, and well-being of women and children in Afghanistan. The trauma inflicted by the war will have long-lasting effects on those who have experienced it.

The role of the Taliban

The Taliban is an Islamic fundamentalist group that ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 and returned to power in 2021 after waging an insurgency against the US-backed government in Kabul since 2001. The Taliban's harsh rule has been internationally condemned for restricting human rights in Afghanistan, including the right of women and girls to work and to have an education.

The Taliban emerged in 1994 as one of the prominent factions in the Afghan Civil War and largely consisted of students from the Pashtun areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan who had been educated in traditional Islamic schools. Under the leadership of Mullah Omar, the movement spread throughout most of Afghanistan, shifting power away from the Mujahideen warlords. In 1996, the group administered roughly three-quarters of the country and established the First Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

The Taliban's government was opposed by the Northern Alliance militia, which seized parts of northeast Afghanistan and largely maintained international recognition as a continuation of the interim Islamic State of Afghanistan. The Taliban held control of most of the country until being overthrown after the United States invasion of Afghanistan in December 2001. Many members of the Taliban fled to neighbouring Pakistan.

After being overthrown, the Taliban launched an insurgency to fight the US-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in the War in Afghanistan. In May 2002, exiled members formed the Council of Leaders (Rahbarī Shūrā) based in the city of Quetta in Pakistan. Under Hibatullah Akhundzada's leadership, in May 2021, the Taliban launched a military offensive that culminated in the Fall of Kabul on 15 August 2021 and the Taliban regaining control of Afghanistan. The Islamic Republic was dissolved and the Islamic Emirate was re-established.

The Taliban's ideology is a combination of strict anti-modern Pashtun tribal ideology mixed with radicalised Deobandi interpretations of Islam. The Taliban's harsh rule has been internationally condemned for restricting human rights in Afghanistan, including the right of women and girls to work and to have an education. The Taliban also committed a cultural genocide against the Afghan people by destroying their historical and cultural texts, artifacts and sculptures.

The effect on infrastructure and health

The war in Afghanistan has had a devastating impact on the country's infrastructure and health systems.

Infrastructure

The war has severely damaged Afghanistan's infrastructure. The country was already one of the poorest in the world before the Soviet incursion of 1979, and the subsequent two decades of conflict and destruction left Afghanistan's infrastructure in a state of ruin.

The US and its allies have since attempted to rebuild Afghanistan's infrastructure, but the country remains at or near the bottom of every socio-economic indicator. In 2003, the US government pledged to help improve security, expand educational opportunities, improve basic health, build effective governance, and encourage citizen participation in the democratic process.

Since then, the US has helped rebuild 13 Afghan ministries, including the Ministries of Agriculture, Health, and Education. They have also rehabilitated more than 7,441 canals, underground irrigation tunnels, reservoirs, and dams, and repaired buildings and record-keeping systems.

The US has also worked to improve vital irrigation in the chronically dry country, rehabilitating irrigation projects affecting 325,000 hectares. They have also rehabilitated 7,269 km of rural roads and completed more than 600 related road-reconstruction projects, including the repair of retaining walls and culverts. This has allowed humanitarian supplies to reach those in need and helped Afghans employed in the agricultural sector to ship their produce to markets.

In addition, the US has helped to improve electricity and water access in Afghanistan. They have contributed to the completion of a national grid, enabling the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces to transition from expensive diesel-generated fuel to a more cost-effective grid.

Health

The war has also had a devastating impact on the health of Afghans. According to the Afghan Ministry of Public Health, two-thirds of Afghans suffer from mental health problems. In addition, the war has exacerbated the effects of poverty, malnutrition, poor sanitation, lack of access to healthcare, and environmental degradation.

The war has also led to increased malnutrition and vulnerability to disease. As of May 2023, 92% of the population faces some level of food insecurity, and 3 million children are at risk of acute malnutrition. Some regions are currently facing famine.

The war has also led to increased civilian casualties. As of March 2023, more than 70,000 Afghan and Pakistani civilians are estimated to have died as a direct result of the war. In addition, Afghan land is contaminated with unexploded ordnance, which continues to kill and injure civilians, especially children.

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