The Complex Legacy Of The Afghanistan Wars: A Retrospective Analysis

The war in Afghanistan has been ongoing since 2001, in the wake of the September 11 attacks. It is America's longest war, and there is little doubt that the American people are tired of it. However, the question of whether the US is winning or losing is a complex one.

US officials have been accused of misleading the public about the war's progress, and the conflict has been locked in an extended stalemate. Former President Trump declared that the US never really fought to win in Afghanistan, and the Taliban's resilience has continued to demonstrate this.

The war's outcome will depend on various factors, including the terms of any potential peace deal and the public narrative that forms around it. The perception of victory or defeat will have lasting consequences for American civil-military relations.

Some analysts argue that the US won in Afghanistan years ago when it decided to invest in a professional Afghan security sector. They believe that the war was never America's to win or lose, but rather the Afghan people's. The success of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) in taking the lead in the fight against the Taliban and other enemies is a critical indicator of progress.

The ability of the US to maintain its gains in Afghanistan and achieve a lasting peace will depend on its commitment to a careful synergy of military, political, diplomatic, and economic efforts.

The role of the Taliban in the Afghanistan wars

The Taliban is a predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that ruled most of Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. The Taliban emerged in the early 1990s as one of the prominent factions in the Afghan Civil War and largely consisted of students from the Pashtun areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan who had been educated in traditional Islamic schools. The Taliban's ideology is a combination of strict anti-modern Pashtun tribal ideology mixed with radicalized Deobandi interpretations of Islam.

The Taliban's first move after capturing Kabul in 1996 was to institute a strict interpretation of Qur'anic instruction and jurisprudence. In practice, this meant often merciless policies on the treatment of women, political opponents of any type, and religious minorities. The Taliban enforced a strict interpretation of Sharia law, or Islamic law, and were widely condemned for massacres against Afghan civilians, harsh discrimination against religious and ethnic minorities, denial of UN food supplies to starving civilians, destruction of cultural monuments, banning women from school and most employment, and prohibition of most music.

The Taliban was ousted from power in 2001 by US-led coalition forces following their refusal to hand over terrorist leader Osama bin Laden in the wake of al-Qaeda's 9/11 attacks. After their ouster, the Taliban regrouped across the border in Pakistan and began taking back territory less than ten years after their overthrow. The Taliban waged an insurgency against the US-backed government in Kabul, Afghan national security forces, and international coalition troops.

In February 2020, after more than a year of direct negotiations, the US government and the Taliban signed a peace deal, the so-called Doha Agreement, that set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. In August 2021, the Taliban took over Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, and established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

The impact of the war on the Afghan people

The war in Afghanistan has had a devastating impact on the Afghan people. The conflict has destroyed lives, with 92% of the population facing food insecurity and 3 million children at risk of acute malnutrition. The war has also caused a breakdown of the economy, public health, security, and infrastructure, leaving Afghans massively impoverished.

The war has resulted in widespread death and injury among civilians. From the last year of the Obama administration to the last full year of recorded data during the Trump administration, civilian casualties from U.S.-led airstrikes increased by 330%. The CIA has also armed Afghan militia groups, which have been responsible for serious human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings. Additionally, unexploded ordnance from the war and landmines from previous wars continue to kill and injure civilians, particularly children.

The war has exacerbated existing issues in Afghanistan, such as poverty, malnutrition, poor sanitation, and lack of access to healthcare and education. It has also taken a toll on mental health, with two-thirds of Afghans reported to be suffering from mental health problems in 2009.

The conflict has led to mass displacement, with 2.7 million Afghans forced to flee the country and an additional 4 million internally displaced. The war has also contributed to the country's economic woes, with the Afghan economy on the verge of collapse due to international sanctions and the termination of development aid. This has resulted in skyrocketing inflation and a lack of access to basic goods and services for Afghans.

The social and cultural fabric of Afghanistan has also been significantly impacted. There has been a regression in liberal and democratic rights and freedoms, with girls once again barred from secondary schools and women facing restrictive laws and violence. The Taliban has also banned music and reintroduced flogging, amputations, and mass executions.

Overall, the war in Afghanistan has had a profound and devastating impact on the lives of Afghans, with long-lasting consequences that will continue to affect the country and its people for years to come.

The US's military strategy

The US military strategy in Afghanistan has evolved over the years, with the country's presence in the region coming under increased scrutiny.

In the immediate aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks, the US military response was focused on hitting targets in Afghanistan with missiles and warplanes. This was known as Operation Enduring Freedom, and it aimed to deny Al-Qaeda a safe haven in the country. The US also sought to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al-Qaeda and prevent their return to Afghanistan or Pakistan. Approximately 11,000 US military personnel continue to serve under Operation Enduring Freedom, conducting special ops missions and training the Afghan military.

The US military also adopted an approach called "clear, hold and build," where troops would clear insurgents from a district and remain until local government officials and Afghan security forces could stabilize the area with an influx of aid. This strategy was particularly focused on areas where the Taliban was deeply entrenched, such as Helmand and Kandahar provinces.

However, critics argue that the US lacked a clear war strategy in Afghanistan. A US Special Forces officer commented that they were given vague strategic priorities that generally amounted to "go do good things." It is also noted that the US strategy was based on buzzwords and lacked substance.

In recent years, the US has shifted its focus to training the Afghan security forces and providing additional troops to strengthen the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). This force, comprising about 40 countries, is responsible for conducting nationwide security and stability operations. The core goal, as outlined in an interagency white paper, is to bring Afghanistan and the international community closer to success in defeating Al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

Despite these efforts, the enemy in Afghanistan—a combination of Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, Hezbi Islami, and foreign fighters—has become stronger over time. The US and its allies' ability to claim victory in Afghanistan is complex and depends on various factors, including the public narrative that forms around any potential deals or withdrawals.

The cost of the war

The war in Afghanistan has been the longest war in US history, lasting nearly two decades. Since the war began in 2001, the US has spent an estimated $2.3 trillion on the war, including operations in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. This figure does not include the funds obligated to the lifetime care of American veterans of this war or future interest payments on money borrowed to fund the war.

The human cost of the war has been immense. Over 3,500 US and NATO troops have been killed since the war began, and tens of thousands have been wounded. The number of US troops who have died in the conflict is estimated to be 2,442, with another source giving a figure of 2,455. In addition, nearly 4,000 US civilian contractors have been killed. The number of Afghan military and police personnel killed is estimated to be over 69,000, with another source giving a figure of 66,000. The number of civilians killed is estimated to be over 47,000, with another source giving a figure of 46,000. The total number of deaths as a direct result of the war is estimated to be 243,000, not including deaths caused by disease, loss of access to food, water, infrastructure, and/or other indirect consequences of the war.

The financial cost of the war has also been significant. The US government has spent over $2 trillion on the war, with one source giving a figure of $2.26 trillion. This includes $800 billion in direct war-fighting costs and $85 billion to train the Afghan army. The US has also spent $300 billion on care for 20,000 US casualties, with another $500 billion expected in future costs. In addition, the US has paid $100,000 in "death gratuity" to the survivors of each service member killed in the war, totaling $245.5 million.

The war has also had a significant impact on the economy of Afghanistan. Despite the massive infusion of US aid, Afghanistan still has one of the smallest formal economies in the world. President Ashraf Ghani stated in 2021 that 90% of the population was living on less than $2 per day. In addition, the illicit economy, particularly the opium and heroin trade, has boomed since the US-led invasion.

In conclusion, the war in Afghanistan has exacted a heavy toll in terms of human lives, economic costs, and lost opportunities. The US spent trillions of dollars and lost thousands of lives in a war that ultimately failed to achieve its objectives. The cost of the war will continue to be felt for decades to come, both in Afghanistan and the United States.

The possibility of peace

In February 2020, the US signed a peace agreement with the Taliban, which could pave the way for an American military withdrawal. The deal includes a schedule for the withdrawal of US and NATO forces, with the Taliban pledging not to associate with Al Qaeda, ISIS, or other militant groups, and not to allow them to use Afghan territory to plan attacks.

However, experts are skeptical of the Taliban's sincerity, and there are concerns about the ability of the Afghan government to maintain stability without foreign support. The US has reduced its troop presence in Afghanistan, but the war is ongoing, and it is unclear if the agreement will lead to a lasting peace.

Some argue that the US "won" in Afghanistan years ago when it decided to invest in a professional security sector and help the Afghans achieve victory over the Taliban. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) are seen as the foundation for a peaceful Afghanistan and have grown in capability and professionalism. They are responsible for most ground attacks against the Taliban and are flying the majority of attack missions.

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