The Toll Of War: Al Qaeda's Losses In Afghanistan

Al-Qaeda is a pan-Islamist militant organization led by Sunni Jihadists, with a membership that is mostly composed of Arabs. The group has mounted attacks on civilian, economic, and military targets of the US and its allies.

On July 31, 2022, a US drone strike killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri at a Taliban guest house in Kabul. Al-Zawahiri had been al-Qaeda's deputy emir and assumed the role of emir following Osama bin Laden's death in 2011.

Al-Zawahiri's death paved the way for only the second leadership transition in the group's four-decade history. The most visible and likely contender to replace al-Zawahiri is Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian national and veteran al-Qaeda operative.

While the exact number of al-Qaeda members killed in Afghanistan is unclear, the US and its allies have waged a 20-year war to try to defeat terrorists in the country, and al-Qaeda has suffered significant losses, including the killing of many fighters and leaders.

Al-Qaeda's leadership

Al-Zawahiri's death has paved the way for only the second leadership transition in Al-Qaeda's four-decade history. The most likely contenders to replace al-Zawahiri as emir are Saif al-Adel and Abd al-Rahman al-Maghrebi. Both are veteran Al-Qaeda operatives with close ties to Iran. However, their ties with Iran are problematic within the dogmatic intellectual aspect of the organisation, and their leadership could reinforce the argument that Al-Qaeda is an Iranian tool.

Al-Qaeda's core leadership remains on the Afghan-Pakistani border region and is weaker than it was before bin Laden's death. The group has decentralised, with several affiliates in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and elsewhere. The affiliates are coordinated by their own leaders and are only loosely connected to the core organisation.

Al-Qaeda's current leader is unclear, and the group has not announced a successor to al-Zawahiri. The group's consultative committee, composed of several veterans and the heads of each affiliate, will play a significant role in managing the leadership transition.

The Taliban's role

The Taliban is a Sunni Islamist nationalist and pro-Pashtun movement founded in the early 1990s. The Taliban ruled most of Afghanistan from 1996 until October 2001. The Taliban's role in Afghanistan has been controversial, with the group being designated as a terrorist group by NATO, the UN Security Council, the European Union, and various countries around the world.

The Taliban's relationship with Al-Qaeda has been a significant source of concern for the international community. The Taliban provided a safe haven for Al-Qaeda, allowing them to freely recruit, train, and deploy terrorists to other countries. The Taliban's refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden, the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, led to the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. Despite the Taliban's ouster, they regrouped and waged a twenty-year insurgency against the US-backed government in Kabul.

The Taliban's return to power in 2021 raised concerns about their ties with Al-Qaeda and the potential for Afghanistan to become a safe haven for terrorists. These concerns were heightened by the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in Kabul in 2022. Al-Zawahiri was residing in a house owned by a top aide of the Taliban's interior minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani.

The Taliban's governance has been characterized by a heavy-handed approach to justice and dispute resolution, with no evidence of a functioning judiciary or penal code. They have reinstated policies from their previous rule, such as severe restrictions on women's rights and a ban on music and certain dress codes.

The Taliban's primary ideological goal is to establish a Taliban-controlled government in Afghanistan, implementing and enforcing Sharia law. They have imposed their system of governance, referring to it as the 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan'. The Taliban's rule has been marked by violence and the use of torture to stifle dissent and opposition.

The Taliban's relationship with Al-Qaeda remains a significant concern, with the group's ability to provide a safe haven for terrorists posing a threat to regional and international security. The Taliban's commitment to preventing Afghanistan from being used for terrorist attacks against the US and its allies remains uncertain.

The impact on counterterrorism operations

Al-Zawahiri's death has paved the way for only the second leadership transition in al-Qaeda's four-decade history. The succession process is delicate, and the new leader will need to be accepted by the group's consultative committee and renew the allegiance of al-Qaeda leaders and affiliates worldwide. The most likely contenders, Saif al-Adel and Abd al-Rahman al-Maghrebi, are both based in Iran, raising questions about their ability to act independently and their potential influence over senior leaders.

Al-Qaeda has evolved into a more diffuse organization, with regional affiliates playing a more prominent role. These affiliates have adopted a global jihadist vocabulary while focusing on local conflicts and insurgencies. The death of al-Zawahiri is unlikely to significantly impact their operational patterns, but his successor will undoubtedly influence the future of the organization.

The U.S. counterterrorism capabilities in Afghanistan have been diminished following the withdrawal of U.S. troops. The ability to strike al-Qaeda targets and gather intelligence has been reduced, making it challenging to conduct "over-the-horizon" counterterrorism operations. However, the Zawahiri operation demonstrates that the U.S. retains some capacity to target high-value targets in Afghanistan, even without a ground presence.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has provided some respite for al-Qaeda, but the group remains focused on mobilizing resources and recruiting new fighters. The Taliban's ability to control all militants in Afghanistan is uncertain, and the presence of al-Zawahiri in Kabul indicates a breach of their commitments to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a staging ground for attacks against the U.S. and its allies.

The Islamic State (ISIS) has emerged as a more significant threat than al-Qaeda in recent years, with a wider global presence and a more aggressive strategy. ISIS has actively recruited disaffected Taliban fighters and militants, posing a challenge to the Taliban's stability and security promises.

Overall, counterterrorism operations have dealt significant blows to al-Qaeda, but the group remains resilient and adaptable. The leadership transition and the evolving nature of the organization will be crucial factors in the ongoing counterterrorism efforts.

Al-Qaeda's affiliates

Al-Qaeda has a complex network of relationships with other groups, with some arguing that its affiliated organisations make it significantly stronger and deadlier. The number of Al-Qaeda affiliates has grown since the early 2000s, and it is believed to have ties with over 20 groups worldwide, from the Maghreb to South Asia. The group is thought to have around 32,000-44,000 militants across its affiliates and partners.

Al-Qaeda has both direct and indirect affiliates, as well as groups with which it cultivates ties below the threshold of formal affiliation. Some of its direct affiliates include Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM). AQIM and AQAP are known to have engaged in kidnapping for funding, along with Al-Shabaab, another major affiliate.

Al-Qaeda's indirect affiliates include factions of the Caucasus Emirate, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group. The group also has several former affiliates, including Abu Sayyaf, which pledged allegiance to ISIL in 2014, and Al-Qaeda in Iraq, which became the Islamic State of Iraq and later seceded from Al-Qaeda to become ISIL.

The Islamic State's response

The Islamic State has made its contempt for al-Qaeda and the Taliban clear. Islamic State propaganda often accuses the Taliban and al-Qaeda's leadership of straying from Osama bin Laden's vision for the group. The Islamic State also accuses the Taliban of negotiating the Doha Agreement with the US, which al-Qaeda endorsed.

Following the death of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in Kabul in July 2022, Islamic State supporters posted celebratory messages with titles like "The Clown is Dead" and "The Dog Has Perished".

Al-Qaeda's global affiliates will likely renew their allegiance to the organisation to maintain the status quo and prevent internal tensions and dissidence in favour of the Islamic State. However, the death of al-Zawahiri could lead to a shift in the geographic centre of power in al-Qaeda, as no affiliate leader has ever headed the movement before.

The Islamic State clearly intends to exploit al-Qaeda's interregnum as an opportunity to continue disparaging "the fools of the apostate al-Qaeda".

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