The Ever-Expanding Taliban Army: A Force To Be Reckoned With In Afghanistan

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has raised questions about the strength of the Taliban army and the efficacy of U.S. spending on the Afghan army. The Taliban, a force of 75,000 militants, overwhelmed the U.S.-trained Afghan army of 300,000, with little resistance. This has brought attention to the Taliban's military strategy, the corruption within the Afghan army, and the role of the U.S. in training and equipping Afghan forces.

The Taliban's rapid takeover of Afghanistan

The speed of the Taliban's advance took many by surprise, including U.S. intelligence agencies and the Afghan government. However, there were warning signs, and some analysts argue that the takeover was the result of several factors, including intelligence failures, a more powerful Taliban, corruption, cultural differences, and a lack of willpower among Afghan forces.

The Taliban's success can be attributed in part to their effective military strategy. They took control of major border crossings, main highways, and besieged big cities, cutting off Kabul's ability to send reinforcements and supplies. They also infiltrated urban areas, assassinated key individuals, and threatened the families of commanders, leading many Afghan forces to surrender without a fight. Additionally, the Taliban benefited from the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops, which signalled to Afghan soldiers and police that the end was near and further eroded their motivation to fight.

The Taliban's rapid advance also exposed the weaknesses of the Afghan National Defence Security Forces (ANDSF). Widespread corruption, embezzlement, and poor leadership undermined morale and cohesion within the ranks. There was also no ideological cohesion or sense of national duty among the troops, and they lacked effective command and control, with frequent changes in military leadership. The ANDSF was entirely dependent on U.S. and NATO troops to protect urban areas, and once these forces began to withdraw, there was nothing to stop the Taliban's advance.

The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has had devastating consequences for the country. The economy is in a state of collapse, with mass unemployment, a housing market collapse, and increased malnutrition. The Taliban has also imposed strict restrictions on women's rights, and the country's health care system is crumbling. The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has been exacerbated by natural disasters and consecutive years of drought. The UN estimates that nearly 29 million people, or two-thirds of the population, will require urgent humanitarian assistance by August 2023.

Intelligence failures

The fall of Kabul to the Taliban came as a shock to the world, and many have attributed this to a failure of intelligence.

Intelligence officials have been accused of overestimating the capability and will of the Afghan security forces to fight back against the Taliban. The Taliban's rapid takeover of Afghanistan, including the capital and the presidential palace, suggests that US military intelligence failed in its assessment of the situation.

In the months leading up to the fall of Kabul, intelligence assessments painted an increasingly grim picture of the prospect of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and warned of the rapid collapse of the Afghan military. By July, many intelligence reports grew more pessimistic, questioning whether any Afghan security forces would muster serious resistance and whether the government could hold on in Kabul.

However, intelligence agencies never offered a clear prediction of an imminent Taliban takeover, and their assessments were not given a "high confidence" judgment. As late as a week before Kabul's fall, the overall intelligence analysis was that a Taliban takeover was not yet inevitable.

One of the key failures of intelligence was the underestimation of the Taliban's strength and strategy. Intelligence officials failed to recognize the Taliban's growing numbers and new strategies, such as their effective use of social media and text message campaigns to threaten local Afghans working with the US. They also underestimated the effectiveness of the Taliban's strategy of taking control of major border crossings, main highways, and besieging big cities, which crippled Kabul's ability to send reinforcements and supplies.

Another factor was the overestimation of the Afghan security forces' capability and will to fight. Intelligence officials assumed that the Afghan security forces, which had been trained, equipped, and funded with billions of dollars from the US, would be able to put up more resistance against the Taliban. However, many Afghan forces gave in to the Taliban, convinced that the government in Kabul would not back them up. The Taliban also infiltrated urban areas, assassinated key people, and threatened the families of commanders, leading to more surrenders.

The intelligence failure also lay in the inability to predict the speed of the Taliban's advance. US defense officials expected Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, to fall within 90 days, but it took less than 10 days. This miscalculation reached the highest levels of the Biden administration, with National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan acknowledging that they overestimated the Afghan forces' ability to fight.

In conclusion, the fall of Kabul to the Taliban was a result of multiple intelligence failures, including the underestimation of the Taliban's strength and strategy, the overestimation of the Afghan security forces' capability and will to fight, and the failure to predict the speed of the Taliban's advance. These failures had significant consequences, leading to a rushed evacuation of US citizens, embassy staff, and vulnerable Afghans from Kabul's international airport.

Corruption in the Afghan army

Corruption has taken many forms in the Afghan army, including bribery, nepotism, graft, and illegal land transfers. One of the most common types is petty bribery, or asking for small gifts (baksheesh) in exchange for special treatment or favours. Another is "position buying", where opportunities in the police force or civil service are awarded based on bribes rather than merit. Nepotism or clientelism is also common, with positions being awarded based on personal relationships or kinship networks.

Corruption has also led to the misallocation of resources and immense levels of bribery solicitation in the Afghan army. In a 2013 Transparency International survey, one-fifth of Afghans said they considered the military corrupt. A 2015 report stated that the Department of Defense had lost track of over 200,000 weapons meant for the Afghan security forces and police, which were reportedly sold by officers to the Taliban.

Corruption has had a detrimental impact on the Afghan army's effectiveness and morale. It has undermined the state's credibility in Afghan communities and contributed to the country's fall to the Taliban. It has also eroded the morale of Afghan soldiers willing to fight and sapped their combat capability as resources have been siphoned off by corrupt commanders.

The U.S. has been criticized for its role in enabling corruption in Afghanistan. Time and again, the U.S. seemed to prioritize security over efforts to combat kleptocracy. A 2016 report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) found that the U.S. aided and abetted corruption by glad-handing crooked officials and stalling anti-corruption investigations.

Despite some anti-corruption initiatives, the problem persists. In 2023, Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index ranked Afghanistan 162nd out of 180 countries.

Lack of willpower in the Afghan army

The collapse of the Afghan army in the face of the Taliban's advance has been attributed to a variety of factors, including corruption, a lack of ideological cohesion, and poor leadership. However, one of the most significant factors was the lack of willpower among Afghan soldiers to fight for a government they did not trust and did not believe was worth dying for.

The Afghan army suffered from high rates of attrition, with soldiers frequently deserting or failing to reenlist due to low morale and poor leadership. Many soldiers felt that the government did not care about them or their families, with some even alleging that the government was corrupt and embezzling funds meant for the army. This led to a lack of trust and respect for their commanders and the political leadership, further undermining their will to fight.

The decision by the U.S. to withdraw its troops also played a significant role in the collapse of the Afghan army. The Afghan forces had become heavily reliant on U.S. support for airpower, intelligence, logistics, and other vital areas. When the U.S. announced its withdrawal, many Afghan soldiers lost faith in the mission and no longer believed that the government could survive without U.S. support. This was further exacerbated by the perception that the U.S. was abandoning them and that they were being left to fight alone against the Taliban.

The Taliban, on the other hand, fought with ideological fervor and a strong desire to rid the country of foreign invaders. They were highly motivated and willing to sacrifice their lives for their cause, which contrasted sharply with the lack of willpower among Afghan soldiers. The Taliban's superior morale and determination ultimately proved decisive in the conflict.

In conclusion, the lack of willpower in the Afghan army was a critical factor in its collapse. Poor leadership, government corruption, and the withdrawal of U.S. support all contributed to low morale and a lack of trust in the government and military leadership. This, in turn, led to a lack of willpower among Afghan soldiers, who felt that they were fighting for a lost cause and were unwilling to risk their lives for a government they did not believe in.

The Taliban's improved military capabilities

The Taliban's military capabilities have improved over the years, allowing them to take control of Afghanistan in 2021. Here are some factors that contributed to their improved capabilities:

Military Strategy and Adaptation:

The Taliban employed a strategic "outside-in" military approach, first gaining control of rural areas and then using those territories to generate funds and resources to seize adjacent lands. They adapted their tactics, shifting from large-scale assaults to a war of shadows that effectively undermined the Afghan government's legitimacy. They also utilised decentralised orders, allowing local commanders to make decisions based on their knowledge of the terrain and politics in their areas.

Improved Armament and Equipment:

The Taliban took advantage of the Afghan security forces' weaknesses and disrupted their communication lines. They seized advanced US-supplied weaponry and equipment, including armoured vehicles, night-vision devices, and laser optics, from overrun checkpoints and installations. They also started routinely weaponising commercial drones for attacks.

Information Warfare and Propaganda:

The Taliban effectively utilised information warfare, spreading their messages through social media, text messages, and tribal elders. They disseminated images of surrendering Afghan security forces, undermining the morale and will to fight of their opponents. They also employed tailored propaganda and psychological warfare campaigns, flooding social media with messages of surrender or death.

Terror and Assassination Campaigns:

The Taliban targeted civil society leaders and military personnel, such as pilots, in a covert assassination campaign. They amplified their strategic messaging that the Afghan government could not provide security and destroyed the Afghan Air Force by killing pilots in their homes.

Diplomacy and Peace Deals:

The Taliban integrated diplomacy into their military campaign, taking advantage of the peace deal negotiated with the Trump administration. They used the cover of negotiations to move into position across the country and surround key districts and provincial centres. The deal also constrained US military power, limiting their ability to attack Taliban targets.

Cohesion and Motivation:

The Taliban exhibited strong cohesion and motivation among their fighters. They had a high degree of control over their forces and communities in the areas they controlled. Their fighters were driven by a strong ideology and the desire to establish an Islamic emirate, expelling foreign troops they saw as occupiers. In contrast, the Afghan security forces lacked ideological cohesion and national duty.

External Support:

The Taliban received support from various external actors, including Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and private donors from Gulf Arab states. Pakistan provided sanctuary, recruitment support, training, and strategic advice. Iran and Russia supplied military equipment and funding.

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