Ruqayyah Snyder
Australia is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change due to its existing warm climate, high annual rainfall variability, and extensive arid and semi-arid areas. The country is already experiencing the consequences of rising temperatures, with 2019 being its hottest and driest year on record. The average temperature rise in Australia is a little over 1.4°C, with land areas warming about 40% faster than the surrounding oceans. This has resulted in more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, and bushfires, threatening the country's unique ecosystems, economy, agriculture, and public health.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Average temperature increase since 1910 | 1.44 ± 0.24 °C to 1.51 ± 0.23 °C |
| Warmest year on record | 2019 |
| Temperature increase in 2023 | 1.45 °C above the 1850-1900 average |
| Sea surface temperature increase since 1900 | 1.08 °C |
| Global sea level rise since 1900 | Over 22 cm |
| Global sea level rise since 1970 | Half of the total increase |
| Rainfall decrease in southwestern Australia since the 1970s | 10-20% |
| Rainfall decrease in southeastern Australia since the 1990s | Moderate decline |
| Rainfall increase in northern Australia since the 1970s | N/A |
| Increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events since 1979 | 10% or more |
| Increase in the duration and frequency of heatwaves since 1970 | N/A |
| Increase in the number of hot weather records in the past decade | 3 times more than cold weather records |
| Increase in the risk of bushfires due to ''fire weather' conditions since the 1950s | N/A |
| Expected additional warming | 1-3 °C |
| Expected temperature rise by 2070 | 1-2 °C |
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What You'll Learn
The climate is getting hotter and drier
Australia's climate is changing, and the country is experiencing higher temperatures and more extreme weather events. The average annual temperatures in Australia are projected to increase by 0.4–2.0 °C above 1990 levels by 2030 and by 1–6 °C by 2070. The country's extensive arid and semi-arid areas, warm climate, and high annual rainfall variability make it vulnerable to the effects of global warming.
The climate in Australia is indeed getting hotter and drier, with southern Australia experiencing a decline in rainfall during the cooler months. The increase in high-pressure systems in this region brings dry, clear weather with little rainfall. The warming of the Australian continent and sea surface has continued, with unprecedented weather extremes and associated disasters, severely impacting the environment, economy, and people. The number of extreme fire risk days has increased, particularly in southeast Australia, and the length of the fire season has been extended.
The increase in temperature has led to more frequent and severe heatwaves, with the number of days breaking heat records doubling in the past 50 years. The impact of extreme heat is visible on plants, coral reefs, animals, and people, especially the young, elderly, and those with chronic illnesses. River species and mangroves in Central Australia and the Northern Territory are dying, along with smaller plants, birds, and animals. Marine heatwaves are also on the rise, devastating kelp forests, seagrass meadows, coral reefs, and the underwater ecosystem.
Climate change is also affecting Australia's terrestrial ecosystems. Alpine systems are shrinking as habitats shift to higher elevations. Tropical and subtropical rainforests are impacted by warming temperatures, which may be intensified or moderated by rainfall changes. Coastal wetlands are facing threats from rising sea levels and saline intrusion. Inland ecosystems dependent on freshwater and groundwater are affected by changing rainfall patterns, and tropical savannas are experiencing changes in the frequency and severity of bushfires.
The Great Barrier Reef, one of Australia's unique ecosystems, is at risk due to climate change. Coral bleaching has increased in frequency and severity, and large areas may never recover. The warming and acidification of oceans, caused by the absorption of heat and excess carbon dioxide, reduce the ability of marine organisms to form their skeletons. These impacts on marine life also affect humans, as they are sources of food and income.
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Rainfall is becoming heavier and less frequent
Australia's weather systems are changing. Southern Australia receives much of its rainfall during the cooler months of the year from low-pressure systems and cold fronts to the south of the subtropical high-pressure ridge. During recent decades, these systems have become less common over southern Australia, and are less likely to produce rainfall when they do occur, contributing to declines in cool-season rainfall. Mean sea level atmospheric pressure is increasing over Australia, and there has been an increase in the number of high-pressure systems over southern Australia, which bring dry, clear weather and little rainfall. This increase in atmospheric pressure across southern latitudes is a response to climate change.
The influence of climate change on bushfires varies across Australia, depending on the types of vegetation in each region. Climate change is driving changes in temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity, all of which influence fuel availability, fuel dryness, fire weather, and ignition sources. Fire weather is a significant contributor to fire risk in the forest fuel areas of southern and eastern Australia. Conversely, wetter conditions in northern and central regions result in abundant grassy fuel loads, which increase fire risk. There has been an increase in the frequency of dangerous fire weather days across most regions over the last 75 years.
The level of ENSO activity over the past 50 years is higher, with more significant El Niño and La Niña events than in the years between 1920 and 1970. El Niño years often bring drought to eastern and northern Australia, while La Niña years bring heavy rain to many parts of the country. The Indian Ocean north-west of Australia has also emerged as a moisture source, with drought common in years when it cools, and heavy rain in years when it warms.
Australia is experiencing higher temperatures, more extreme droughts, fire seasons, floods, and more extreme weather due to climate change. Rising sea levels threaten housing and infrastructure. The number of days that break heat records has doubled in the past 50 years. The warming is driven by Australia's high per capita greenhouse gas emissions, which are three times the global average. While annual rainfalls have fluctuated, there has been a shift in rainfall seasons since the 1990s, with a higher proportion of annual rainfall in the warmer months and less in the cooler months.
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Sea levels are rising
The rising sea levels will also lead to coastal erosion, loss of beaches, and higher storm surges that will affect coastal communities, infrastructure, and industries. A significant proportion of Australia's infrastructure, such as transportation and communication networks, is located around coastal population centres. Coastal ecosystems that are likely to be affected include beaches, coral reefs, estuaries, and wetlands. The Great Barrier Reef, already impacted by coral bleaching, is also at risk.
Additionally, the rising sea levels will intensify high-sea-level events, threatening housing and infrastructure. The increased frequency and severity of flooding will impact communities, especially those in low-lying areas, and disrupt the services provided by infrastructure. Coastal industries, such as large corporate manufacturers and small tourist operators, will need to prepare for changes in location, access, and resource use.
The impact of rising sea levels is already being felt in Australia, with some areas experiencing increased coastal inundation and erosion. Community education programs are being implemented to raise awareness of sea-level rise impacts and build support for policies and projects aimed at managing these impacts. Adaptation planning for ongoing coastal change is critical, and efforts are being made through initiatives like the NSW Coastal Management Framework and research endeavours.
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Bushfires are becoming more frequent and extreme
Australia is highly vulnerable to the effects of global warming projected for the next 50 to 100 years due to its extensive arid and semi-arid areas, already warm climate, and high annual rainfall variability. The country's high fire risk increases its susceptibility to changes in temperature and climate. Climate change is driving changes in temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity, all of which influence fuel availability, fuel dryness, fire weather, and ignition sources.
Fire weather, often hot, dry, and windy, is a significant contributor to fire risk in forest fuel areas of southern and eastern Australia. The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), a measure of fire weather calculated from observations of temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind speed, has seen an increase in the frequency of dangerous fire weather days across most regions over the last 75 years. Climate change is expected to increase instances of lightning strikes as extreme weather events become more frequent. Lightning is the main natural ignition source of bushfires in NSW, and human behaviour, both accidental and deliberate, is also a major contributor.
The influence of climate change on bushfires varies across Australia, depending on the types of vegetation (fuel) in each region. In four bioregions, wildfires became more frequent as rainfall declined, while the opposite was true in two other bioregions. Increased average rainfall may, in some cases, arrive in storm events with associated lightning, which can start fires. It can also lead to faster water runoff, causing forests to become drier. Fire frequency was also affected by the extent to which temperatures deviated from the long-term average.
Climate change is making bushfires more frequent and extreme, with some ecosystems suffering more than others. While climate change does not affect human-caused ignitions, it influences the frequency of fire and the availability of fuel. Warmer, drier conditions dry out vegetation, increasing fuel dryness and bushfire risk. The number of days that break heat records has doubled in the past 50 years, and the global average temperature has risen by 1.1 °C since 1910, with Australia's average rise being a little over 1.4 °C. In 2019, Australia experienced its driest and hottest year on record.
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The Great Barrier Reef is at risk
Australia is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change due to its extensive arid and semi-arid areas, already warm climate, and high annual rainfall variability. The continent's high fire risk further increases its susceptibility to changes in temperature and climate.
One of the most iconic ecosystems in Australia, the Great Barrier Reef, is at risk due to climate change. The Great Barrier Reef is one of the richest and most complex natural ecosystems on the planet. Climate change is the biggest threat to the future of coral reefs in Australia and around the world. As the oceans absorb heat and excess carbon from the atmosphere, they become more acidic. This increase in acidity reduces the capacity of crustaceans, hard corals, and coralline algae to draw out calcium carbonate from the water to grow and strengthen their skeletons. Warmer ocean temperatures also trigger coral bleaching events, where corals expel the microscopic algae that live inside their tissues, revealing their white skeletons. While bleached corals are not dead, they are more susceptible to starvation and disease. Climate change is also causing more frequent and intense severe weather events, such as cyclones, flooding, and storms, which cause significant damage to coral reefs.
In just seven years, the Great Barrier Reef experienced four mass coral bleaching events due to marine heatwaves, reducing shallow water coral reefs by up to 50%. Coral reefs can recover from bleaching over time, but only if temperatures drop and conditions return to normal. However, with insufficient global action on climate change, heatwaves and drought will continue to become more extreme, posing an ongoing threat to the reef.
Researchers are exploring potential interventions to save coral reefs, including "assisted gene flow" and "synthetic biology." Assisted gene flow would involve introducing coral from warmer regions, such as the Persian Gulf, to increase the heat tolerance of the reefs. Synthetic biology refers to using gene editing techniques like CRISPR-Cas9 to create heat-tolerant corals. While these interventions offer potential solutions, they also carry risks, such as maladaptation, where transplanted corals may become less suited to their new environment.
The window to act is closing, and urgent global action is needed to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help coral reefs adapt to the warmer temperatures already caused by climate change.
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Frequently asked questions
The impacts of climate change in Australia are already being felt and are expected to worsen in the coming decades. The country is experiencing higher temperatures, more extreme droughts, longer fire seasons, and more frequent and severe bushfires. The Great Barrier Reef, one of the world's most valuable ecosystems, is also at risk due to increased coral bleaching and ocean acidification.
The changes in Australia's climate are primarily driven by human-induced climate change and the associated increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Australia itself is a contributor to climate change, with per capita greenhouse gas emissions above the world average due to its reliance on coal and other fossil fuels.
Australia has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 under the Paris Agreement, with a target of reducing greenhouse gases by 26-28% by 2030. However, progress on emissions reductions has stalled since 2013, and the country has been ranked poorly in international climate change performance indexes. There have been protests and demonstrations in support of stronger climate change policies, and renewable energy coverage is increasing.
