Omari Gates
Australia is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with its extensive arid and semi-arid areas, already warm climate, and high annual rainfall variability. The climate in Australia is changing, with rising temperatures, more extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. The average temperature rise in Australia is a little over 1.4°C since 1910, with 2019 being the hottest year on record. The country is experiencing higher temperatures, more frequent and severe droughts, longer fire seasons, heavier rainstorms, and rising sea levels, threatening housing and infrastructure. Bushfires are becoming more extreme, particularly in southern and eastern regions, and the frequency of dangerous fire weather days is increasing. Climate change is also impacting Australia's economy, agriculture, and public health, with Indigenous communities in the North being among the most affected.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Climate Change Cause | Greenhouse gas emissions |
| Climate Change Impact | Global warming, extreme heat, bushfires, droughts, floods, longer fire seasons |
| Temperature Change | 1.51 ± 0.23 °C increase since 1910 |
| Temperature Anomalies | 1.52 °C above average in 2019 |
| Extreme Heat Events | Increase in frequency and intensity |
| Rainfall | Increase in heavy rainfall events, but decrease in some regions of southern Australia |
| Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure | Increase over Australia, particularly in southern regions |
| Biodiversity | Potential substantial losses of species and coral communities with additional warming |
| Greenhouse Gas Emissions | 533 million tonnes CO2-equivalent in 2019, three times the global average per capita |
| Climate Change Mitigation | Australia has provided $1 billion to assist developing countries in reducing GHG emissions |
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What You'll Learn
Australia's temperature rise
Australia's annual average temperatures are projected to increase by 0.4–2.0 °C above 1990 levels by 2030, and by 1–6 °C by 2070. Oceans around the country have warmed by around 1°C since 1910, and the country's land and sea temperatures have been steadily rising. Since national records began in 1910, Australia's average temperature has increased by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C. Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than the last, with both daytime and nighttime temperatures rising. The country's warmest year on record was 2019, with temperatures 1.52°C above average.
The warming in Australia is occurring at a greater rate than the global average. By the end of the century, the country could face a temperature rise of more than 5°C, outpacing the rate of global warming. This is dependent on the extent to which greenhouse gas emissions are cut. The CSIRO's 2015 report projected a rise of up to 5.1°C by 2090 if emissions are not reduced.
The impact of rising temperatures is exacerbated by the country's high fire risk, which is influenced by changes in temperature and climate. The number and length of periods of dangerous "fire weather" have increased since the 1950s, particularly in southern Australia. This is characterised by low humidity, high temperatures, and high winds, creating conditions that increase the risk of bushfires. Climate change is also driving changes in rainfall patterns, with rainfall in southwestern Australia decreasing by 10–20% since the 1970s, and a moderate decline in southeastern Australia since the 1990s.
The consequences of these temperature rises are wide-ranging. Australia's unique ecosystems, such as the Great Barrier Reef, are at risk, and there are diverse implications for the country's economy, agriculture, and public health. The warming climate is also making the country more prone to extreme heat, bushfires, droughts, floods, and longer fire seasons.
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Rainfall changes
Australia's climate is changing, with rainfall patterns being significantly affected. The continent is already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate, with a general shift towards less rainfall in southern Australia. The Australian climate has warmed by a mean of 1.4 °C on land and 1.1 °C in the oceans since consistent national records began. Most of the increase in temperatures over Australian land areas has occurred since the 1950s, and temperatures have continued to increase over the past 5 years.
Southern Australia receives much of its rainfall during the cooler months of the year from low-pressure systems and cold fronts to the south of the subtropical high-pressure ridge. During recent decades, these systems have become less common over southern Australia, and are less likely to produce rainfall when they do occur, contributing to declines in cool season rainfall. Mean sea level atmospheric pressure is increasing over Australia, and there has been an increase in the number of high-pressure systems over southern Australia, which bring dry, clear weather and little rainfall. This increase in atmospheric pressure across southern latitudes is a response to climate change.
The intensity of rainfall is increasing due to climate change in many regions, with higher temperatures creating a range of extreme weather and climate events, including heavier rainstorms due to greater evaporation. Heavy short-term rainfall events are becoming more intense, increasing the risk of flash flooding. This is especially true for intense rain falling over timescales of minutes to hours. The Australian Rainfall and Runoff (AR&R) guidelines are being updated to account for this using the latest scientific evidence.
Average precipitation in the southwest and southeast Australia is projected to decline, while regions such as the northwest may experience increases in rainfall.
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Sea level rise
Sea levels are rising around the Australian coastline and will continue to rise through this century and beyond. Consistent with global increases, sea levels have risen in Australia at an average rate of 2.1 mm/year over the past half century. This is slightly lower than the global average of 2.5 mm/year since 1880, half of which has occurred since 1970. However, rates of sea level rise since 1993 have been above the global average around much of the Australian coastline, and in some regions, particularly in northern Australia, the rate of post-1993 sea level rise has been up to 5 mm/year.
The rate of sea-level rise in Australia during the 21st century will be greater than that of the past four decades. The projected amount of regional sea-level rise is largest for RCP8.5 and smallest for RCP2.6 (the lowest concentration scenario). Coastal capital cities such as Brisbane, Darwin, Perth, Adelaide, and Sydney show an average increase of 60–66 cm by 2090 for RCP8.5 (high concentration scenario) and 45–47 cm for RCP4.5 (medium concentration scenario). The likely range of change is wider, for example, from 38 cm to 89 cm across these cities for RCP8.5. The likely estimate of sea-level rise in Australia by 2090 is about 45-82 cm higher than 1986-2005 levels.
The consequences of sea level rise in Australia will include increased flooding of low-lying coastal areas, including beaches, coral reefs, estuaries, and wetlands, and are likely to result in coastal erosion, loss of beaches, and higher storm surges that will affect coastal communities, infrastructure, industries, and the environment. A significant proportion of Australia's infrastructure, such as transportation and communication networks, is located around coastal population centers. Coastal inundation and more frequent storms are likely to impact the built environment through damage to structures or disruption of the services they provide.
Parts of the Torres Strait Islands are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. Several of the islands are very low-lying, and coastal inundation and erosion are significant issues even in the current climate. Some inhabited areas of Saibai have been inundated to a depth of up to 0.5 meters during a strong La Niña event in 2011. Some of the central coral cays have experienced significant coastal erosion, threatening impacts on graves and other significant cultural sites, as well as saltwater intrusion into landfills, wastewater treatment sites, and groundwater.
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Ecosystems at risk
Australia's ecosystems are at risk due to the changing climate, which is causing rising temperatures, more frequent and severe heatwaves, and altered rainfall patterns. The average annual temperatures in Australia are projected to increase by 0.4–2.0 °C above 1990 levels by 2030 and by 1–6 °C by 2070. This warming trend is already affecting the continent's ecosystems, with land areas warming about 40% faster than the surrounding oceans.
The Great Barrier Reef, one of Australia's unique ecosystems, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Coral bleaching events have increased in frequency and severity, and large areas of the reef may never recover. The oceans are becoming more acidic due to increased carbon absorption, which makes it difficult for crustaceans, hard corals, and coralline algae to strengthen their skeletons. This has consequences for the marine creatures that depend on these habitats for food and shelter, as well as for humans who rely on them for income and food sources.
In addition to the oceans, Australia's terrestrial ecosystems are also at risk. River species and mangroves in Central Australia and the Northern Territory are dying, along with smaller plants, birds, and animals. The increase in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns contribute to longer and more severe droughts, affecting vegetation growth and availability, which has implications for wildlife and human populations, especially in regions reliant on traditional land for food and culture.
Climate change is also influencing the frequency and intensity of bushfires across Australia. The combination of higher temperatures, altered rainfall, and increased humidity creates favourable conditions for fires, particularly in forest fuel areas of southern and eastern Australia. The increase in dangerous fire weather days poses a significant risk to ecosystems, with potential long-term impacts on vegetation and wildlife recovery.
Overall, the changing climate in Australia poses a severe threat to its unique ecosystems, including the Great Barrier Reef and terrestrial habitats. The vulnerability of these ecosystems has far-reaching consequences for the environment, economy, and cultural heritage of the country. Mitigation efforts and adaptation strategies are crucial to safeguard Australia's biodiversity and minimize the impacts of climate change.
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Climate change impacts
Climate change is having a profound impact on Australia, with far-reaching consequences for the environment, economy, and people. The country's unique ecosystems, such as the Great Barrier Reef, are at risk, and the warming climate is leading to an increase in extreme weather events.
Temperature Rise and Heatwaves
Australia's land and sea temperatures have been rising since national records began in 1910, with oceans warming by around 1°C during this period. The frequency of extremely high temperatures has also increased, with monthly maximum temperatures that previously occurred 2% of the time in the 1960s and 1980s, now happening 12% of the time since 2005. By 2030, annual average temperatures are projected to increase by 0.4–2.0 °C compared to 1990 levels, and by 1–6 °C by 2070.
Rainfall and Floods
Rainfall patterns are changing, with southwestern Australia experiencing a 10–20% decrease since the 1970s, and southeastern Australia also seeing a decline since the 1990s. Rainfall is expected to become heavier and more erratic, leading to an increased risk of flash floods. The changing rainfall patterns are also impacting fuel availability and dryness, influencing fire behaviour.
Sea Level Rise and Coastal Hazards
As an island, Australia is vulnerable to rising sea levels, with rates higher than the global average in the north and southeast. The mean sea level atmospheric pressure is increasing, bringing more high-pressure systems over southern Australia, which bring dry weather and less rainfall. The rising sea levels pose a significant risk to Australia's highly populated coastal areas.
Ecosystems, Agriculture, and Health
Climate change is threatening Australia's unique ecosystems, such as the Great Barrier Reef, and the diversity of animal species. It is also impacting agriculture, with changing rainfall patterns affecting water availability and the risk of droughts. The increase in extreme weather events, such as bushfires, heatwaves, and cyclones, is putting a strain on public health and emergency response systems.
Economic Impact
The combination of these factors is having a significant economic impact on Australia. The damage caused by severe weather events, such as floods and bushfires, is costing the country financially, and the strain on water supplies is affecting agriculture and industry. The vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef, a significant tourist attraction, also has economic implications.
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Frequently asked questions
The climate in Australia is getting hotter and drier, with longer fire seasons and more extreme weather events.
Climate change is expected to have diverse implications for Australia's economy and agriculture. For example, rising temperatures are making carrot production less viable in warmer areas, with production expected to shift to cooler regions such as Tasmania.
Australia's ecosystems and environment are being severely impacted by climate change. For example, marine heatwaves are devastating Australia's kelp forests, seagrass meadows, coral reefs, and the creatures that depend on them.
Bushfires, or wildfires as they are known in the Northern Hemisphere, are becoming more extreme and frequent, especially in southern and eastern Australia. The lengthening of the fire season is also contributing to an increased risk of bushfires.
Australia has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 under the Paris Agreement and has seen an increase in renewable energy coverage. However, Australia has been criticized for its inadequate emissions reduction targets and lack of credible national climate policy.
