Ethnicity's Role In Afghanistan's Election: A Complex Dynamic

Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic society, with 14 recognised ethnic groups. The largest of these groups, the Pashtuns, account for between 38% and 50% of the population. The remaining groups include the Tajik (25-27%), the Hazara (9-19%), the Uzbeks (9-10%), the Aimaq (4%), the Turkmen (3%), the Baloch (2%), and several other groups making up the remaining 4-8%.

Afghanistan's ethnic diversity is important to understanding the country's 2014 presidential election, which was the first time power was democratically transferred. The two candidates in the second round of elections, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, were Pashtun and Tajik respectively. Ghani won the election with 56% of the vote, but the result was disputed by Abdullah, who claimed industrial-scale fraud had taken place.

Ethnicity is a sensitive issue in Afghanistan, and it has been a source of division and conflict in the country. The 2014 election reflected longstanding ethnic and regional divisions, with Ghani receiving most of his votes from Pashtuns, and Abdullah receiving most of his from Tajiks, Hazaras, and Uzbeks.

The Pashtun ethnic group is the largest in Afghanistan, accounting for 38-52% of the population

Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic and multi-lingual country. The Pashtun ethnic group is the largest in Afghanistan, accounting for 38-52% of the population. Pashtuns are traditionally pastoral nomads with a strong tribal organisation. Each tribe is divided into clans, sub-clans, and patriarchal families. The Pashtun people are united by the Pashto language, which is a member of the Indo-Iranian language family. However, many also speak Dari (Persian) or Urdu.

Pashtuns have historically been referred to as "Afghans" until the 1964 Constitution of Afghanistan, which stated that anyone with citizenship is Afghan. The Pashtun ethnic group is spread over a wide geographic area, south of the Amu River and west of the Indus River. They can be found all over Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Pashtuns are made up of about sixty tribes of varying sizes. Each tribe occupies its own territory. The Pashtun ethnic group is the major ethnic group in Afghanistan. In Pakistan, Pashtuns predominate north of the town of Quetta and between the Sulaiman Mountain Ranges and the Indus River.

Pashtuns have a strong influence on Afghan politics. The Pashtun ethnic group has historically asserted a "right to rule". The Pashtun Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 until their overthrow in 2001. The Pashtun ethnic group has also produced several notable political figures, including former Afghan presidents Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani.

Pashtun culture is based on Pashtunwali, Islam, and the understanding of the Pashto language. The Pashtunwali code of honour is central to the Pashtun way of life and defines how members should behave to keep the tribe together. Hospitality, courage, taking revenge, and protecting one's honour are important Pashtun virtues.

Ethnicity is a social construct with fixed and fluid components, and it is a powerful mobiliser in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic and multi-lingual country, with 14 recognised ethnic groups: Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen, Baluch, Pachaie, Nuristani, Aymaq, Arab, Qirghiz, Qizilbash, Gujur, Brahwui and Other Tribes. The Pashtun are the largest group, comprising around 38-50% of the population, followed by the Tajiks (25-27%), Hazaras (9-19%) and Uzbeks (9-10%). The remaining groups make up the remaining 4-10% of the population.

The nature of Afghanistan's ethnic diversity is important in understanding the country's electoral process and the central role of ethnicity within it. The concept of ethnic identification is a social construct with both fixed and fluid components. While ethnic groups in Afghanistan have no clear boundaries between each other and there is much overlap, with ethnic groups adopting traditions and celebrations from one another, ethnicity is still a powerful mobiliser in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan's 2014 presidential election marked a major milestone for democratisation, as it was the first time power had been democratically transferred. The two candidates in the second round of voting, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, had won 31% and 45% of the votes respectively in the first round. Ghani is Pashtun, and Abdullah is Tajik (although some claim he is mixed Tajik and Pashtun). The second round of voting was fraught with strife and tension, and Ghani was eventually declared the winner with 56% of the vote. However, Abdullah threatened to reject the results, arguing that industrial-scale fraud had taken place. To lessen the tension, the candidates agreed to a power-sharing agreement, leading to the creation of the National Unity Government (NUG) led by Ghani, with an extra-constitutional position of 'Chief Executive Officer' created for Abdullah.

The ethnic dynamics of the 2014 election provide insight into the role of ethnicity in Afghanistan's elections. The study by Rabia Nasimi confirms the complexity of defining ethnicity as either a biological concept or a social construct. While the majority of campaigners identified with one of the two largest ethnic groups in Afghanistan, there were individuals who did not strongly identify with one or any particular ethnic group. This suggests that ethnicity is not fixed but fluid, and that it is a social construct that can be chosen rather than assigned at birth.

The campaigners reflected on the need for ethnic diversity in the campaign, not only in the selection of vice-presidential running mates but also in the makeup of the campaigners themselves. They believed that most people would vote for someone who shares a common culture and ethnic identity, and that this was a reason why the presidential candidates' messages added to the ethnic rhetoric rather than downplaying ethnic divisions. The research provided several alternative explanations for why Afghans continue to vote along ethnic lines, including a lack of understanding of the democratic electoral system.

The 2014 election also highlighted the challenges of forming an inclusive government in a country with deep ethnic divisions. The NUG was a step towards formalising power-sharing in Afghanistan, but it failed to change the strong centralised system of government. Tensions between Ghani and Abdullah created divergent interpretations of the NUG agreement, with Ghani accused of "extreme Pashtun nationalism" and Abdullah accused of favouring Tajiks. Ghani's push for centralisation led to division among Afghan elites and brought discontent and isolation.

In conclusion, ethnicity is a social construct with fixed and fluid components, and it is a powerful mobiliser in Afghanistan. While ethnic groups overlap and share cultural traditions, they are still a significant factor in political campaigns and elections. The 2014 presidential election demonstrated the challenges of forming an inclusive government in a multi-ethnic country, and the ongoing tensions between different ethnic groups.

The country's first presidential election in 2004 revealed long-standing ethnic and regional divisions

Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic and multi-lingual country, with 14 recognised ethnic groups: Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen, Baluch, Pachaie, Nuristani, Aymaq, Arab, Qirghiz, Qizilbash, Gujur, Brahwui and Other Tribes. The Pashtuns are the largest group, historically asserting a "right to rule", and are thought to make up between 32-50% of the population.

Karzai's victory was marred by accusations of fraud, with some candidates boycotting the ballot. However, the boycott dissolved when the UN announced it would set up an independent panel to investigate the charges of irregularities. Despite this, the election was a significant milestone for democratisation in Afghanistan, marking the first time power had been democratically transferred.

Afghanistan's constitution promotes ethnic divisions through a highly centralised form of government

Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic and multi-lingual country. However, due to the decades of war, there is no accurate census of its population, especially regarding the size of each ethnic group. Afghanistan's constitution, adopted in 2004, established a highly centralised form of government. It stuck to a unitary tradition and a presidential system, giving broad powers to the president.

The recognition of the multi-ethnic character of the country was not included in the initial draft of the constitution. It was only after insistence from the Constitutional Loya Jirga (CLJ), a grand assembly of 502 members of Afghan society, that the recognition was included. Article 4 of the constitution mentions 14 ethnic groups: Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek, Turkman, Baluch, Pachaie, Nuristani, Aymaq, Arab, Qirghiz, Qizilbash, Gujur, Brahwui and Other Tribes. The Pashtuns, the largest group, have historically asserted a "right to rule".

The centralised presidential system did not create a collective and inclusive executive. Instead, it established a political system designed to provide power to only one winner from one community. For a president to be elected, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the votes. This does not provide a structure of governance that fairly represents the ethnic divisions of Afghanistan’s multicultural society.

Afghanistan's electoral system for presidential elections is based on a majoritarian voting system that can encourage ethnic divisions among voters. In the country's first presidential elections in 2004, Hamid Karzai, a Pashtun, won with 55% of the vote. Karzai received the majority of his votes from Pashtuns. His Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek rivals received 16%, 11% and 10% of the vote respectively. These candidates did not receive much support outside of their ethno-linguistic group.

The centralisation of power in the hands of the president, along with the prohibition of the formation of parties based on ethnic, linguistic, and religious lines, has aggravated the feeling that smaller ethnic groups are excluded from any significant participation in government.

The 2014 elections were another failed attempt at establishing an inclusive government

The dispute was eventually resolved through a power-sharing agreement brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry, under which Ghani became president and Abdullah was appointed to the newly created position of Chief Executive Officer, with prime minister-like powers. The agreement also included a pledge to convene a Constitutional Loya Jirga within two years to formalise the CEO position. However, the Loya Jirga was never held, and the fundamental instability of the system remained unchanged.

The 2014 elections highlighted the central role of ethnicity in Afghan politics. Ghani is Pashtun, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, accounting for 40-50% of the population. Abdullah is Tajik, the second-largest ethnic group, accounting for about 25% of the population. The two candidates' vice-presidential running mates were also chosen to appeal to different ethnic groups. Ghani's running mate was Abdul Rashid Dostum, an Uzbek, while Abdullah's was Mohammad Mohaqiq, a Hazara.

The candidates' ethnic backgrounds played a significant role in the election results. Ghani received most of his votes from Pashtuns, while Abdullah received most of his votes from Tajiks. The election results exacerbated ethnic tensions, with Ghani being accused of "extreme Pashtun nationalism" and Abdullah of favouring Tajiks. The power-sharing agreement did little to address these tensions, and Ghani has been criticised for surrounding himself with ethnonationalist Pashtun leaders and sidelining prominent non-Pashtun leaders.

The 2014 elections also demonstrated the limitations of Afghanistan's electoral system in promoting inclusive governance. The country's electoral law relies on a Single Non-Transferrable Vote (SNTV) system, which has been criticised for reducing the strength of political parties and making it difficult for candidates to build cross-ethnic coalitions. The system tends to favour Pashtun candidates, as they only need to appeal to one other ethnic group to win, while candidates from smaller ethnic groups must form much larger coalitions.

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