The Complex Dynamics Of Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations

Pakistan and Afghanistan have had a strained relationship since the partition of British India in 1947, which led to the emergence of Pakistan along Afghanistan's eastern frontier. Afghanistan was the only country to vote against Pakistan's admission to the United Nations, and various Afghan officials have made territorial claims on parts of Pakistan. Pakistan, on the other hand, has been accused of supporting the Taliban and providing them with substantial financial and logistical support. Pakistan's interests in supporting the Taliban include containing Pashtun nationalism, countering Indian influence in Afghanistan, and ensuring a Pakistan-friendly government in the country. However, Pakistan's support for the Taliban is risky, as it involves playing a delicate game that could potentially destabilize the region. The Taliban's refusal to recognize the Durand Line, which forms the modern-day border between the two countries, and their close ties with the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) or Pakistani Taliban, have been a source of tension. Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban has evolved since 9/11, with the country detaining and allegedly torturing Taliban commanders under pressure from the United States. Going forward, Pakistan's influence with the Taliban may decrease as the group attempts to build ties with other regional powers such as China, Iran, and Russia. The consequences of the Taliban takeover for Pakistan are uncertain, but the country could face challenges such as civil war in Afghanistan, refugee crises, and religious extremism.

Pakistan's support for the Taliban

• Pakistan has vested ideological interests in the Taliban. The country was created in 1947 as a Muslim nation, and Islam was supposed to unite its disparate communities. However, in 1971, a large portion of Pakistani territory broke away to become Bangladesh. As a result, the Pakistani government became paranoid about the western territories of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which have large Pashtun populations. Pakistan established madrassas in these areas to promote a strict brand of Islam, and Taliban leaders were trained in those schools.
• Pakistani officials worry about the border with Afghanistan, known as the Durand Line. Afghan governments have rejected this border since 1947, claiming the territories on the Pakistani side as part of a "Pashtunistan" or traditional Pashtun homeland. Pakistan believes that the Taliban's ideology emphasizes Islam over Pashtun identity, which could ease border concerns.
• Pakistan wants a Pakistan-friendly government in Afghanistan to counter India's influence in the region. A Taliban government could provide a haven for anti-India jihadi groups.

Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban has evolved since the September 11 attacks, but the country remains a major source of financial and logistical support for the group. The Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency has provided the Taliban with money, training, and weaponry since its inception. The ISI also maintains strong ties with the Haqqani network, a militant group allied with the Taliban. Despite pressure from the United States, Pakistan has detained and allegedly tortured Taliban commanders.

The Durand Line border dispute

The Durand Line is a 2,640-kilometre (1,640-mile) border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It was established in 1893 as the border between British India and the Emirate of Afghanistan, marking their respective spheres of influence. The agreement was signed by Sir Mortimer Durand, the foreign secretary of the colonial government of India, and Abdur Rahman Khan, the emir of Afghanistan.

The Durand Line has been a source of tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan, as it divides the Pashtun ethnic group, who are the largest tribal group in the world, into two separate countries. Afghanistan has never recognised the Durand Line as a legitimate international border, and the dispute has led to periodic skirmishes and tensions between the two countries. Afghanistan has territorial claims on areas stretching from the Afghan-Pakistan border to the Indus River, comprising nearly 60 percent of Pakistani territory.

After the founding of Pakistan in 1947, Afghanistan demanded that Pashtuns living on the Pakistani side of the Durand Line be given the right to self-determination. Britain and Pakistan refused, leading to increased tensions and Afghanistan's refusal to recognise the Durand Line. Afghanistan also lost access to the Arabian Sea due to the Durand Line.

Pakistan, on the other hand, has defended the legality of the Durand Line, citing international law and treaties. Pakistan argues that it has legally inherited the border as the legitimate successor state of British India. Pakistan's sensitivity to the issue stems from its painful experience of losing Bangladesh to Bengali nationalists in 1971, which struck at the root of its raison d'être as a state.

The Durand Line dispute has had far-reaching consequences for the region, with Pakistan's involvement in the so-called Afghan jihad in the 1980s and its support for the Taliban leading to increased instability and the rise of Islamist radicals in the country. The dispute continues to poison the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with no resolution in sight.

Pakistan's fear of Afghan-Indian alliance

Pakistan's relationship with Afghanistan has been strained since the former gained independence in 1947. Afghanistan was the only country to vote against Pakistan's admission to the United Nations, and the two countries have had territorial disputes and conflicting claims. Afghanistan has also supported secessionist movements within Pakistan.

Pakistan's fear of an Afghan-Indian alliance is rooted in its desire to limit India's influence in Afghanistan and its own security concerns. Pakistan's military has long feared being "sandwiched" between India on the eastern front and Afghanistan on the western front, which could lead to a "two-front situation" in the event of a conflict. This fear has shaped Pakistan's strategic doctrine and its efforts to maintain "strategic depth" by influencing Afghan affairs.

Pakistan has sought to counter this perceived threat by cultivating radical groups within Afghanistan as proxies and providing support to the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. However, this policy has had negative consequences, contributing to Afghanistan's instability and leading to tensions with the United States.

To address these concerns, Pakistan's leadership, including Prime Minister Imran Khan, has called for non-interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs and a focus on facilitating the peace process. Pakistan also fears the potential consequences of a strong Afghan government aligned with India, which could further isolate the country and lead to a encirclement by its neighbours.

The complex dynamics between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India are influenced by historical, religious, ethnolinguistic connections, and economic factors. Pakistan's support for certain groups in Afghanistan is not without risks, as it involves playing a delicate game that could have unintended outcomes.

The Pashtunistan issue

The Durand Line divided the Pashtun people, a group indigenous to southern Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan, and their culture, language, and identity. The Durand Line became the internationally recognised border between Afghanistan and Pakistan following the partition of India.

The Durand Line has been a contentious issue for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. In 1947, Afghanistan denounced the Durand Line agreement and called for an independent Pashtunistan. In 1949, Afghanistan's parliament declared that it did not recognise the Durand Line as a legal border. In 1950, Afghanistan called a loya jirga, a traditional tribal council, which declared that it did not recognise the Durand Line or any similar line as an international border.

The Durand Line and Pashtunistan issues have had a significant impact on Afghanistan-Pakistan relations, which have been marked by mutual suspicions and tensions. The dispute has influenced the foreign policies of both countries and has been a factor in their competition with India.

The refugee crisis

In 2003, intense U.S. pressure led the Pakistani government to attempt a selective crackdown on anti-American Islamist fighters who had fled Afghanistan for the Tribal Areas of Pakistan. This resulted in an escalating series of Pashtun Islamist revolts in Pakistan that in 2007 came together to found the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP. The resulting civil war in Pakistan cost some 60,000 dead, including 8,000 soldiers and former prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

In 2016, Pakistan deported some 600,000 Afghan migrants, in what Human Rights Watch called "the world's largest unlawful mass forced return of refugees in recent times". Soon after, Pakistan began building a fence along the Durand Line, the border between the two countries.

In October 2023, Pakistan announced that it would expel all unregistered migrants, affecting almost two million Afghans. The country's interior minister, Sarfraz Bugti, alleged that 14 out of 24 suicide bombings in the country that year were carried out by Afghan nationals. More than 300,000 Afghans left the country that month, despite criticism from the United Nations and rights groups.

In total, more than 350,000 people have returned to Afghanistan since the announcement, and the number arriving at borders exhausted and in need of emergency assistance continues to grow. The Afghan Taliban have called Pakistan's deportations "inhumane" and "rushed".

The deportations have been accompanied by widespread abuses against Afghans living in Pakistan, according to Human Rights Watch. Police and other officials have carried out mass detentions, seized property and livestock, and destroyed identity documents to expel thousands of Afghan refugees and asylum seekers.

Amnesty International has called for a halt to the "continued detentions, deportations, and widespread harassment of Afghan refugees", saying that Pakistan would do well to remember its international legal obligations, including the principle of non-refoulement.

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