The Elusive Quest For Good Governance In Afghanistan: A Presidential Puzzle

Afghanistan's most recent president, Ashraf Ghani, served from 2014 until 2021 when his government was overthrown by the Taliban. Ghani was known for his energetic speeches and progressive modernist beliefs. He aimed to transform Afghanistan into a technocratic state, winning him support from youth and urban demographics. However, many of his promises, such as fighting corruption and turning the country into a trade hub, were left unfulfilled.

Ghani's position was weakened by political rivalries, his attempts to reduce the power of ex-warlords, and an uneasy relationship with the United States. He was also criticised for being aloof and short-tempered, and for being in denial during the Taliban's offensive in 2021.

In summary, while Ghani had good intentions and strong support from certain demographics, his presidency was ultimately characterised by unfulfilled promises, political rivalries, and a strained relationship with the United States, leading to a Taliban takeover in 2021.

Ashraf Ghani's escape from Afghanistan

In the days leading up to his escape, Ghani recalled that the Taliban had agreed not to enter Kabul, but this agreement was quickly broken. Ghani recalled that two different factions of the Taliban were closing in from two different directions, and he feared that a massive conflict between them would destroy the city and bring havoc to its people. Ghani's national security advisor and the chief of presidential security warned him that he would be killed if he stayed. Ghani's wife also left Kabul, although she did so very reluctantly. Ghani had planned to go to the Ministry of Defense, but the car that was supposed to take him there never arrived.

Ghani's escape was heavily criticised, and he was accused of abandoning and betraying his country. His vice-president, Amrullah Saleh, called his departure "disgraceful". Ghani was also accused of taking large amounts of money with him, although he denied these allegations and welcomed an international investigation to clear his name. Ghani acknowledged that mistakes were made during his presidency, including assuming that the international community's patience would last. He also blamed the Taliban-US agreement under President Donald Trump, which he said paved the way for the Taliban's takeover.

Ghani's controversial 2014 election win

Ashraf Ghani's 2014 election win was highly controversial. Ghani, a former academic and economist, was declared the winner of the Afghan presidential election in July 2014, with 56.4% of the vote. However, his rival, Abdullah Abdullah, rejected the outcome as "a coup against the will of the people".

The election was marred by allegations of electoral fraud, with both sides accusing the other of cheating. The dispute threatened to destabilise the country at a critical time, as US-led troops were ending their 13-year war against the Taliban.

The election saw a high voter turnout, with over eight million people voting out of an estimated electorate of 13.5 million. This high number of votes was likely to fuel fierce arguments about fraud from both sides.

The Independent Election Commission (IEC) acknowledged that fraud had taken place and that security forces and government officials were involved. The IEC also emphasised that the results would be subject to auditing and adjudication of complaints before the official result was released.

Last-minute talks delayed the results by nearly five hours as the two campaigns tried to negotiate a fraud probe. Abdullah's campaign demanded an audit of 11,000 polling stations, while Ghani's team agreed to an audit of 7,000 stations. The US State Department expected at least three million votes to be checked.

The dispute was eventually resolved through negotiations mediated by the United States, and Ghani became president while Abdullah became chief executive, with power split 50-50.

Ghani's relationship with the Taliban

Ashraf Ghani's relationship with the Taliban was strained, to say the least. Ghani, who was the President of Afghanistan from 2014 until 2021, was deposed when the Taliban took control of Afghanistan on 15 August 2021.

Ghani had made efforts to make peace with the Taliban insurgents and improve relations with Pakistan, which could have paved the way for peace talks with the Taliban. Ghani refused to recognise the border with Pakistan, known as the Durand Line, which Pakistan views as an existential issue. However, after several terror attacks in Afghanistan that were largely blamed on Pakistan, Ghani grew increasingly cold to Pakistan, claiming that the country had hit an "undeclared war of aggression" against Afghanistan. Ghani also called Pakistan the "center of the Taliban".

In March 2021, Ghani expressed his intentions to convince the Taliban to hold fresh elections and allow the formation of a new government through a democratic process. Ghani also blamed the Taliban for the 2021 Kabul school bombing, although a Taliban spokesman denied involvement. Ghani further blamed the Taliban for escalating attacks against women and not cutting ties with terrorist organisations.

On 15 August 2021, Ghani fled Afghanistan with his wife and two close aides to Uzbekistan as the Taliban captured Kabul. Ghani said he left to avoid further violence and that staying would have "added another tragedy to Afghanistan's history". Ghani also said he left to avoid being hanged. Ghani's sudden departure was criticised by many in Afghanistan, including his vice-president, Amrullah Saleh, who called it "disgraceful". Ghani was also accused of taking vast amounts of money with him when he fled, although he denied these allegations.

Ghani's relationship with the US

Ashraf Ghani, the former president of Afghanistan, had a complex and evolving relationship with the United States. Ghani, who spent much of his early life and career in the US, was seen as a more cooperative and productive partner by American officials compared to his predecessor, Hamid Karzai. Ghani's extensive experience in the US, including his time at the World Bank in Washington, made him well-versed in American political and diplomatic culture. This resulted in a less fractious relationship with the Obama administration, which sought his support for the Afghan peace process and safe elections.

One of the main points of contention between Ghani and the US was the presence of American troops in Afghanistan. Ghani pushed hard to maintain the current level of American troops in the country, while the Obama administration was committed to withdrawing them by 2016. This created a challenging dynamic, as Ghani recognised the importance of American military support in the ongoing conflict with the Taliban. Despite their differences, Ghani and Obama managed to find common ground during their meetings, and the US provided diplomatic and security support to Ghani's government.

In the end, Ghani's tenure as president ended abruptly in August 2021 when the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, and he was forced to flee the country. This sudden collapse of the Afghan government and the chaotic US withdrawal raised questions about the nature of the US-Afghanistan relationship and the effectiveness of American support. Ghani himself has partially blamed the US withdrawal and the peace agreement with the Taliban for the fall of his government.

Ghani's relationship with Pakistan

Ashraf Ghani, the former president of Afghanistan, had a complex and evolving relationship with Pakistan. Initially, Ghani aimed to improve relations with Pakistan, which he believed could pave the way for peace talks with the Taliban. However, as his presidency progressed, his stance towards Pakistan became more critical and contentious.

In his first official visit to Pakistan in November 2014, Ghani met with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, demonstrating his initial willingness to foster better ties. Ghani's efforts to improve relations with Pakistan were driven by his goal of transforming South Asian economics and leveraging Afghanistan's centrist location. He envisioned a future where people could have "breakfast in Delhi, lunch in Peshawar, and dinner in Kabul."

However, Ghani's relationship with Pakistan became strained due to several factors. Firstly, he refused to recognize the Durand Line, the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which Pakistan considers an existential issue. Additionally, Ghani blamed Pakistan for terror attacks in Afghanistan and accused the country of waging an "undeclared war of aggression" against his nation. He also alleged that Pakistan was the "center of the Taliban," further deteriorating their relationship.

The tensions escalated when Ghani called Pakistan out for supporting insurgent groups inside Afghanistan, specifically the Tehreek-e-Taliban and the Balochistan Liberation Army. In response, Pakistan accused Afghanistan of aiding insurgent groups within Pakistan. The mutual accusations and increasing hostilities hindered any prospects for improved relations between the two countries.

In conclusion, Ghani's relationship with Pakistan was marked by initial attempts at rapprochement, followed by increasing tensions and mutual accusations. The complex dynamics between Afghanistan and Pakistan, including border disputes and the role of the Taliban, presented significant challenges to Ghani's efforts to improve relations with Pakistan during his presidency.

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