Climate Change: New Brunswick's Future

Climate change poses a significant threat to New Brunswick, impacting various aspects of life in the province. The average annual temperature in New Brunswick has already increased by 1.1°C to 1.5°C in the last 30 years, with more drastic changes expected in the future. The rising temperatures have led to an increased risk of flooding and coastal erosion, with the sea level predicted to rise by approximately 1 metre by 2100. In addition to the environmental consequences, climate change also poses risks to public health, with residents experiencing stress, trauma, and financial strain due to property damage and displacement caused by extreme weather events. New Brunswick is taking action to address these challenges, with a comprehensive Climate Change Action Plan that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote economic growth while increasing the province's resilience to climate change.

Rising sea levels and flooding

The combination of rising sea levels and extreme weather events has already impacted coastal infrastructure and activities in New Brunswick. For example, the province experienced back-to-back spring flooding along the St. John River in 2018 and 2019, causing record-setting flooding and the highest damage costs of any flood event. In addition, the late summer 2019 post-tropical storm Dorian brought high winds and rain, resulting in extensive property, infrastructure, and shoreline damage.

The risks of rising sea levels and flooding are not limited to infrastructure and property damage. Coastal erosion, caused by rising sea levels and flooding, impacts the coastal tourism sector, waterfront properties, critical access roads, and coastal ecosystems. The potential loss of natural habitats and the damage to infrastructure are significant challenges that New Brunswick's communities and resource sectors must address.

To prepare for and mitigate the impacts of rising sea levels and flooding, New Brunswick has developed a Climate Change Adaptation Plan. This plan includes detailed flood maps that illustrate the neighbourhoods, evacuation routes, and industrial zones that would be affected by flooding in the event of a high-tide surge event. The creation of these maps and the development of adaptation plans are crucial steps in building resilience and ensuring the province is prepared for the challenges posed by climate change.

The Climate Change Adaptation Plan also makes recommendations to reduce risks in the future. For example, fearing rising sea levels, Saint John has sought federal funds to protect critical infrastructure, recognizing that proactive measures are necessary to safeguard vulnerable areas. By incorporating the Adaptation Plan into the municipal plan and taking steps to secure additional resources, New Brunswick is demonstrating its commitment to addressing the challenges posed by rising sea levels and flooding.

Extreme weather events

New Brunswick has historically experienced extreme weather events that have caused catastrophic damage. Since 2016, the province has been hit by a series of snow and freezing rain storms, causing power outages and damaging electrical distribution infrastructure. In 2018 and 2019, back-to-back spring flooding along the St. John River resulted in record-breaking flooding and the highest damage costs. The same year, post-tropical storm Dorian brought high winds and rain, leading to extensive property, infrastructure, and shoreline damage.

These events are indicative of a broader trend influenced by climate change. According to NASA, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are increasing due to human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, which has led to a rapid rise in greenhouse gas emissions. As carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere, they trap heat and contribute to global warming. This warming has a range of impacts, including alterations to the water cycle, shifts in weather patterns, and the melting of land ice, all of which can exacerbate extreme weather events.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Sixth Assessment Report released in 2021 confirms that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Research suggests that as the planet continues to warm, the risks associated with these events will also escalate.

New Brunswick is expected to experience the impacts of this changing climate in the future. Climate projections indicate that the province will become warmer, with an anticipated increase of approximately 5°C across the region. This will result in more very hot days and longer growing seasons. Warmer temperatures can also lead to an increased risk to water quality, a higher incidence of pests and invasive species, more freeze-thaw events, and potential health impacts such as heat stress.

In addition to warmer temperatures, New Brunswick can also anticipate an increase in annual precipitation, with more rain days and fewer days of snowfall. This shift in precipitation patterns can lead to increased runoff, flooding, and erosion, as well as a heightened risk of damage to critical infrastructure.

Furthermore, high-intensity precipitation events are becoming more common, and New Brunswick can expect more extreme and variable weather patterns. These stormier conditions can result in increased damage to trees, buildings, homes, and critical infrastructure from high winds, ice storms, and extreme storm surges. The combination of rising sea levels, high tidal cycles, and storm surges can further elevate flood risks, leading to increased coastal flooding, coastal erosion, habitat loss, and infrastructure damage.

To address these challenges, New Brunswick has committed to taking action against climate change. The province released the "Transitioning to a Low-Carbon Economy New Brunswick's Climate Change Action Plan" in 2016, which emphasizes renewable energy, energy efficiency, and the phasing out of coal-fired electricity. The province has already made significant progress in lowering emissions, reducing them by 34% since 2005 through various measures, including closures of coal and oil-fired plants and the incorporation of wind energy.

Impact on physical and mental health

Climate change is a public health problem in New Brunswick, threatening both physical and mental health.

Physical Health Impacts

The occurrence of extreme weather events, such as floods, coastal erosion, and damage to infrastructure, can have direct physical health consequences for residents. For example, the spring flooding in New Brunswick has resulted in devastating property damage, displacement, and financial strain for those in flood zones.

In addition, changes in temperature and precipitation can increase the risk of contracting Lyme disease, as milder temperatures create favourable conditions for the survival and expansion of ticks carrying the disease. Warmer temperatures in spring, combined with increased precipitation in winter, also elevate the risk of flooding.

Mental Health Impacts

The mental health impacts of climate change in New Brunswick are significant and wide-ranging. Extreme weather events, such as flooding, can lead to post-traumatic stress, anxiety, and financial concerns that may persist long after the event. Climate-related hazards can result in various psychological and psychosocial consequences, including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), tensions in social relations, aggression, anxiety, loss of a sense of place, and feelings of helplessness, fear, and worry.

Rising temperatures can also directly impact mental health. Heat waves can increase domestic violence and criminal activity, posing risks to the physical and mental well-being of vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and the sick. Additionally, higher temperatures have been linked to increased rates of psychiatric disorders, emergency psychiatric visits, and suicides.

Climate change-induced disasters, such as hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts, can traumatize individuals, leading to anxiety, depression, PTSD, and suicidal thoughts. The destruction, loss, and displacement caused by these events can severely impact mental health.

The impact of climate change on mental health extends beyond those directly affected by climate disasters. Many individuals experience anxiety and worry about climate change and its potential consequences, even if they have not personally experienced a climate-related disaster. This "climate anxiety" or "eco-anxiety" is particularly prevalent among young adults, who express stress over climate change in their daily lives.

To mitigate the mental health impacts of climate change, it is crucial to strengthen mental health services, raise awareness, and promote community resilience. Supportive actions, such as building community centres, can help foster social connections and enhance overall resilience to climate change.

Changes in forest composition

Forests have long played a vital role in the economy and life of New Brunswick. They moderate temperatures, protect water sources, and prevent soil erosion. They also absorb carbon and pollutants, providing cleaner air for the region. However, climate change poses a significant threat to these forests, and the services they provide may be severely impacted.

The rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns will make it more challenging for certain tree species to grow. The natural ranges for most species are expected to shift northward or to higher elevations. Some trees currently in their ideal growing zone, such as balsam fir, will be outcompeted by trees that thrive in warmer climates, such as birch, maple, and poplar. This shift in species composition will result in a significant change to the forest landscape, and it is expected to occur by the end of the century.

Extended periods of drought, especially inland, will affect tree growth and regeneration. Trees with shallow root systems, like spruce and hemlock, will be particularly vulnerable. The combination of climate impacts and nutrient loss due to logging and biomass harvesting will further exacerbate these issues. Additionally, there will be an increased risk of invasive insects and diseases not typically seen in the region, such as the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid. This could lead to more frequent infestations and a subsequent rise in the use of pesticides, creating further ecological challenges.

The increased severity of seasonal storms, a projected consequence of climate change, may also result in greater damage to the forests, especially in areas where natural forest structures have been weakened by development or poor forestry practices. Forests with a diverse mix of tree ages and species are more resilient to these extreme weather events. Younger, stronger trees can survive and provide some protection for older, more vulnerable trees.

To ensure the continued health and resilience of New Brunswick's forests, conservation efforts are essential. This includes minimizing deforestation and maximizing the diversity of native tree species. By conserving large tracts of intact and roadless forests in permanent protected areas, we can maintain the ecological integrity of forest ecosystems. Additionally, forest management practices must consider the combined impacts of climate change, forest harvesting, and biomass removal on tree growth, diversity, and the climate buffering services that forests provide.

Action plans and strategies

New Brunswick's Climate Change Action Plan 2022-2027 includes 30 new actions that address the province's climate change priorities and promote sustainability, affordability, and resilience in the face of climate change. The plan is one of the most comprehensive in the country, and it is already yielding results. The following are some of the action plans and strategies included in the Climate Change Action Plan:

• Government leadership and accountability: The plan includes 30 individual measurable actions, with a focus on reducing GHG emissions to at least 46% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
• Climate change literacy and education: Promoting climate change literacy and professional development among K-12 educational staff, with the goal of providing 10-20% of staff per facility with climate change training by 2027.
• Collaboration with Indigenous communities: Establishing a working group with Indigenous communities and organizations by 2024 to identify climate change priority areas and facilitate information sharing.
• Zero-emission freight transportation: Supporting the transition to zero-emission freight transportation, including the development of a Zero-Emission Freight Strategy by 2024, which will include market research, fleet assessments, targets, and piloting clean fuel and charging infrastructure.
• Clean Electricity Strategy: Developing a strategy by 2025 to achieve net-zero electricity emissions by 2035, focusing on renewable energy, distributed energy, and clean fuels. This includes phasing out coal-fired electricity and incorporating two first-of-their-kind SMR technologies.
• Decarbonized fuels access: Enabling the local production and use of renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen to ensure that residents have access to decarbonized fuels by 2030.
• Sustainable Economic Development Plan: Creating a whole-of-government plan focused on decarbonization opportunities and barriers, promoting economic growth, and enabling the transition and growth of businesses and industries.
• Clean Technology Skills Gap Assessment: Conducting an assessment by 2025 to promote workforce and skills readiness for the transition to a clean technology economy.
• Community adaptation planning: Supporting community adaptation planning, with a focus on vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans for high-risk coastal municipalities.
• Energy efficiency and renewable energy: Emphasizing the use of renewable energy sources, such as wind energy, and promoting energy efficiency in homes and businesses.
• Phase-out of coal-fired electricity: Phasing out coal-fired electricity, as outlined in the Climate Change Action Plan, to reduce GHG emissions and improve air quality.
• Education, awareness, and capacity building: Focusing on initiatives related to education, awareness, and capacity building to ensure that residents understand the impacts of climate change and how they can contribute to mitigation and adaptation efforts.
• Adaptation planning: Developing adaptation plans that consider future climate conditions and build resilience into communities, businesses, infrastructure, and natural resources.
• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Implementing actions to reduce GHG emissions, such as closures of coal and oil-fired plants, restructuring the forestry sector, and investing in energy efficiency and fuel switching.

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