The Ever-Present Danger: Navigating Afghanistan's Complex Security Landscape

Afghanistan is widely considered to be a highly dangerous country, with many governments advising their citizens to avoid all travel to the country. The country has a tumultuous history, having been the site of major wars over the past few decades, including the Soviet invasion in 1979, the rise of the Taliban, and the American and NATO invasion. The country is currently under Taliban control, with several other armed Islamist groups also active. There is a very high threat of terrorism and kidnapping, with foreigners, NGOs, and humanitarian operations often being targeted. In addition, violent crimes such as muggings, burglaries, and carjackings are common, and women travellers are advised to take extra precautions. Natural disasters such as flooding, earthquakes, and droughts are also common due to the country's geographical location and environmental degradation. Overall, Afghanistan is widely considered to be extremely dangerous and is not recommended for travel.

The Islamic State Khorasan group

ISKP was formed in 2014 by defectors from groups including al-Qaeda, Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), and former Taliban fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan. In January 2015, the central Islamic State group announced its official expansion into the Khorasan region, with Hafiz Khan Saeed, a former TTP commander, as the first ISKP emir.

ISKP's ideology aligns with that of the broader Islamic State group, seeking to establish a global caliphate governed by Islamic law. This caliphate would be a "pure Islamic State" in which members must strictly observe the Prophet's traditions. ISKP has a history of carrying out violent attacks, particularly targeting civilians, politicians, government employees, and Shia Muslims. The group has also claimed responsibility for attacks on foreign targets, including in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Iran, and Russia.

ISKP's relationship with the Taliban has been hostile, with the groups engaging in violent clashes over territorial disputes and ideological differences. The Taliban has attempted to curtail ISKP's operations and capture its leaders. However, there have been rare instances of cooperation between the two groups, particularly in attacks on the Shia Hazara minority in Afghanistan.

ISKP's financing structure is diverse, benefiting from financial support from the broader Islamic State network, local taxation in controlled territories, external funding from sympathetic patrons, and engagement in criminal enterprises such as human trafficking and smuggling.

The group poses a significant threat within Afghanistan and is likely to continue perpetrating attacks, taking advantage of the political instability and reduced counterterrorism efforts following the withdrawal of U.S. and partner forces. ISKP's ability to regroup and increase its attack frequency will depend on the effectiveness of counterterrorism campaigns by the Taliban and other regional governments.

Lawlessness and lack of government control

Afghanistan has been described as a "lawless, weak, and dysfunctional" country, with the government "simply checking the box" when it comes to fighting corruption. The country has been in a state of complete chaos for decades, and an overall sense of lawlessness prevails as the government has little control over large parts of the country. The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 has further exacerbated the situation, with the group abolishing the country's constitution and implementing their own interpretation of Sharia law.

The lack of government control in Afghanistan has led to widespread lawlessness, with robbers and bandits stealing from ordinary people and even looting the government budget. The Taliban's arbitrary enforcement of punishments, such as cutting off the hands of thieves or blackening their faces, has worsened the security situation and exposed both victims and accused individuals to greater risk. Furthermore, the Taliban's failure to consistently enforce a single model of punishment has created an environment of uncertainty and fear.

The Taliban's restrictions on women's rights and freedom of expression have also contributed to the sense of lawlessness. Women have been banned from appearing in public alone or travelling without a male chaperone, and female journalists have faced particular challenges, with many losing their jobs or being forced to wear hijabs and masks during TV presentations. The Taliban have strictly controlled the media, suppressing any criticism of their policies, governance, and performance.

The lack of government control has also allowed for the proliferation of armed groups and militias, such as the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (IS-KP) and the National Resistance Front (NRF). These groups have carried out attacks on civilians, with IS-KP claiming responsibility for a deadly attack on a Shia/Hazara mosque in 2023. The Taliban's inability to provide security and protect at-risk populations has further exacerbated the sense of lawlessness and insecurity in the country.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has deepened due to the Taliban's takeover, with millions facing malnutrition and a lack of access to healthcare and food. The economic crisis has also worsened, with a massive liquidity crisis, spiking food prices, and restrictions on the banking sector impacting the lives of Afghans.

Natural disasters

Afghanistan is highly prone to intense and recurring natural disasters due to its geographical location and years of environmental degradation. The country's rugged mountain landscape and arid climate make it susceptible to several natural hazards.

Earthquakes

Afghanistan is in an active earthquake zone and has a history of frequent and strong earthquakes. In 2022, a powerful earthquake in the country's southeast killed more than 1000 people and injured 1500. Another earthquake in October 2023 in the western province of Herat caused massive casualties, with over 1400 deaths and more than 2000 injuries.

Floods

Afghanistan also experiences frequent flash floods, which have devastating impacts on people's lives and livelihoods. During the months of July and August 2022, flash floods affected approximately 16,000 families, with a death toll of 192 and over 11,000 houses damaged. In May 2024, flash floods in the northern province of Baghlan killed more than 300 people and injured over 1600. The Taliban's Ministry of Interior Affairs stated that the floods had caused "significant financial losses."

Avalanches and Landslides

Heavy snowfall in Afghanistan often leads to avalanches in mountainous regions. The country has also experienced several landslides and mudslides, including in Badakhshan in 2014 and 2015 and Nuristan in 2024.

Droughts

Afghanistan has also faced droughts, which, along with other natural disasters, impact the country's growth prospects and worsen the humanitarian crisis.

The country's low level of socioeconomic development and lack of infrastructure make it extremely vulnerable to natural disasters, resulting in frequent loss of lives, livelihoods, and property.

Women's safety

Afghanistan is a highly dangerous place for women. Women in Afghanistan face rising levels of domestic violence, abuse, exploitation, and forced marriage. In a country racked by decades of war and a dearth of resources, women in Afghanistan are struggling to live with dignity.

In Afghanistan, women are frequently physically, psychologically, and sexually abused by their family members. According to an evaluation by the Afghan Ministry of Women’s Affairs, more than half of all Afghan women reported experiencing at least one type of physical, sexual, or psychological violence between 2016 and 2020, and more than 60 percent were married without their consent. The domestic violence rate is extremely high in Afghanistan, and women are often confronted with old patriarchal traditions. Men are viewed as the main income earners for the family, and women are generally seen as homemakers. It is believed that women do not need to be financially independent, and most women are forced to rely on financial support from men to survive.

Women in Afghanistan are also at risk of targeted attacks and are increasingly bearing the brunt of the violence, making up around half of all civilian casualties. They are also at risk of forced marriage, with reports of women being made to forced to marry by the Taliban.

The Taliban's harsh interpretation of Islam severely restricts women's rights. Girls are blocked from attending school, and women are largely barred from appearing in public without full-body coverings and male escorts. Those who violate the Taliban's rules face flogging in public and execution.

The situation for women in Afghanistan is made even more dangerous by the lack of resources and support available to them. There is a lack of safe spaces and shelters for women fleeing abuse and violence. The idea of women living in protection centers has never been widely accepted in Afghanistan, and the Taliban's rise to power has led to the closure of many safe houses, leaving women with nowhere to turn.

The future for women in Afghanistan appears dark, with limited access to education, work, and basic rights and freedoms.

The Taliban

In 2021, the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan following the departure of US and coalition forces. Since then, the Taliban have imposed restrictions on women's rights, including banning girls from attending secondary school and university and preventing women from working. They have also cracked down on press freedoms and restricted the activities of foreign aid organisations.

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