Bolivian Crisis: America's Unseen Threat

Bolivia's political crisis in 2019, which led to the resignation of President Evo Morales, has had a significant impact on the country and the wider region. The crisis was sparked by disputed election results, with allegations of fraud and constitutional violations, and resulted in widespread protests and a period of political and social turmoil. The crisis not only affected Bolivia's internal stability but also had repercussions for its relations with other countries in the region and beyond. The interim administration, led by Jeanine Áñez, faced the challenging task of restoring order and organising new elections, while violent protests and a deepening economic crisis added to the country's woes. The polarisation of Bolivian society and the power struggle between different factions have made it difficult to find a path towards reconciliation and lasting stability. The crisis has also had economic consequences, with a sharp decline in natural gas production and exports affecting neighbouring countries such as Argentina and Brazil, and raising concerns about energy security in the region.

The Bolivian crisis has led to a dollar crisis, with a lack of dollars affecting businesses and individuals

The Bolivian government has tried to calm fears among savers and businesses, but long lines outside banks and a rise in the price of dollars in informal markets have only added to the panic. The central bank has offered to sell dollars directly at the official exchange rate, but the population's demand for dollars remains high. The lack of dollars has also made it difficult for individuals to make payments and purchase imported goods.

The dollar crisis in Bolivia has been caused by a complex combination of factors, including a long-time hyper-dependence on the US dollar, draining international reserves, and a decline in the production and export of natural gas, which has been the mainstay of the Bolivian economy for the last 20 years. The economic downturn has been made worse by political infighting between President Luis Arce and his former ally, ex-President Evo Morales, who returned from exile after resigning during civil unrest in 2019.

The Bolivian government has announced a package of measures to boost investment and exports, reduce red tape for exports, increase investment in grains production, ease diesel imports, and allow bigger trucks on the roads. These measures aim to gradually moderate the shortage of dollars and bring in up to $5 billion through the farming and mining sectors. However, the problem is severe, with net total reserves halving in the last year and most of the remaining reserves held in gold.

The dollar crisis in Bolivia has had a significant impact on businesses and individuals, causing economic uncertainty and affecting their ability to operate, make payments, and purchase imported goods. The government's response aims to address the shortage of dollars, but it remains to be seen if these measures will be successful in the short term.

The crisis has caused violent protests, with 10 lives claimed in 2019

The 2019 Bolivian political crisis was sparked by the disputed 2019 Bolivian general election, in which incumbent President Evo Morales was initially declared the winner. The election took place after a referendum to amend the Bolivian constitution, which limits the number of terms to two, was rejected in 2016. However, in 2017, the Constitutional Tribunal (TCP) ruled that all public offices would have no term limits, allowing Morales to run for a fourth term. This decision was based on the Pact of San Jose regarding human rights and Article 411, which gives international treaties preeminence over the Constitution text.

The crisis led to 21 days of civil protests, with violent clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters. During this time, there were also numerous acts of violence, including attacks on the homes of Morales' relatives and government offices. The violence escalated further after the release of an audit by the Organization of American States (OAS), which concluded that significant irregularities occurred during the electoral process.

On November 10, 2019, the OAS released a preliminary report claiming that they had found sufficient evidence of election fraud to warrant new elections. This report led to a series of events that ultimately resulted in Morales' resignation. The same day, a 20-year-old student, Limbert Guzman, was killed during a confrontational protest, becoming the third death of the protests.

The Bolivian crisis had a significant impact on the country, with violent protests and a death toll of at least 10 people. The unrest also led to the Senkata and Sacaba massacres, with at least 19 pro-Morales protesters killed in clashes with security forces. The interim government, led by Jeanine Áñez, also faced widespread criticism for its response to the protests, particularly a decree exempting the military from criminal responsibility for killing or injuring protestors.

The Bolivian crisis has resulted in political retaliation, partisan use of the judicial system, and threats of violence

The 2019 Bolivian political crisis, which saw the resignation of then-President Evo Morales, has had a profound impact on the country, leading to political retaliation, partisan use of the judicial system, and threats of violence.

Political Retaliation

The crisis has resulted in a wave of political retaliation, with both supporters and opponents of Morales seeking to punish those deemed responsible for the events. In the aftermath of the crisis, several members of Morales's administration, including Morales himself, have been targeted by criminal investigations and prosecutions. Jeanine Áñez, who replaced Morales as interim president, has been accused of using her position to further her interests and target her political rivals.

Partisan Use of the Judicial System

The judicial system in Bolivia has been accused of being influenced by political motives, with prosecutors filing charges that appear to be politically motivated. This was a problem under the Morales administration, and it continues under the Áñez government. Critics argue that the charges against Morales and his supporters are disproportionate to the alleged conduct and are being used as a form of political retaliation.

Threats of Violence

The Bolivian crisis has also led to an increase in tensions and threats of violence. Protests and counter-protests have erupted across the country, with supporters of both Morales and Áñez taking to the streets. There have been clashes between these opposing groups, as well as incidents of vandalism and attacks on government offices and media outlets. The crisis has deepened the polarisation in Bolivian society, with both sides accusing the other of orchestrating a coup.

The Bolivian crisis has had far-reaching consequences, including political, judicial, and social impacts. The country remains deeply divided, and the path to reconciliation and long-term stability is uncertain.

The crisis has impacted international relations, with some countries recognising the interim government and others condemning Morales's removal as a coup

The Bolivian crisis has impacted international relations, with some countries recognising the interim government and others condemning Morales's removal as a coup.

The Organisation of American States (OAS) and the European Union both released reports concluding that significant irregularities occurred during the 2019 election process. Morales resigned following civil protests, citing fears for the safety of his family. The interim government, led by Jeanine Áñez, was endorsed by Bolivia's Plurinational Constitutional Tribunal. However, the legitimacy of Áñez's appointment was disputed, as the legislative session lacked a quorum due to a boycott by Morales's party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS).

International reactions to the transfer of power were mixed. While some celebrated Morales's removal, his supporters, including some within the MAS, argued that the event was a coup d'état. The Bolivian Congress, with a MAS majority, approved a bill annulling the election results and preventing Morales from participating in new elections.

The interim government's response to protests and its human rights record have been a source of concern for international organisations and other countries. The interim government's decision to grant the military immunity from criminal responsibility for killing or injuring protestors was criticised by human rights groups and the United Nations.

The Bolivian crisis has also impacted diplomatic relations with other countries. For example, the interim government improved relations with the United States, naming a temporary ambassador for the first time in over a decade. However, relations deteriorated again following the arrest of Áñez and her cabinet ministers in 2021, with the Arce administration accusing the United States of interfering in Bolivia's internal affairs.

The crisis has caused economic and health crises in Bolivia, brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic

Bolivia's healthcare system was already struggling before the pandemic, with the country ranking nearly last among Western Hemisphere countries for key health indicators. Child mortality is the worst in South America, with 69 deaths per 1,000 live births, and 23% of the population suffers from malnutrition. In 2019, the maternal mortality rate was 160 per 100,000—one of the highest in the region.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated these issues. In May 2020, Health Minister Marcelo Navajas was arrested on suspicion of corruption related to the purchase of ventilators for COVID-19 treatment. The ventilators were bought from a Spanish company for twice their value, and they were deemed unsuitable for use in intensive care units.

The New York Times reported in August 2020 that the death rate in Bolivia was "nearly five times the official tally", and testing was very limited. The newspaper also stated that Bolivia was one of the worst-affected countries, with a death rate in July 2020 five times higher than in previous years.

The pandemic has also worsened the economic situation in Bolivia. Remittances from relatives working abroad—a crucial source of income for many families—fell by more than 30% in the first six months of 2020 as many of the 3 million Bolivians living abroad lost their jobs.

The economic crisis has been further fuelled by an ongoing feud between President Luis Arce and his former ally, ex-President Evo Morales, ahead of the 2025 presidential election. Many Bolivians impacted by the crisis have lost trust in Arce, who denies the country is in an economic crisis. Bolivia has become largely an import economy, dependent on the U.S. dollar, and the shortage of dollars has led to the emergence of a black market.

The economic downturn has resulted in widespread discontent, fuelling waves of protests and strikes across the country. The political unrest has dealt a further blow to businesses, as customers from all over the country no longer travel to buy products due to the chaos.

The crisis in Bolivia has had a significant impact on the health and economic situation in the country, with the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating pre-existing issues and contributing to rising discontent and political instability.

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