Bahrain's Enemies: Who Are They And Why?

The Kingdom of Bahrain is a small island country in the Persian Gulf, situated between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with Iran lying 124 nautical miles to the north. It is ruled by a Sunni king, whose family holds the main political and military posts. The country is predominantly Muslim, with a Shia majority and a Sunni ruling minority, and this divide has led to long-running tensions, which have sporadically boiled over into civil disobedience.

Bahrain was once viewed as a promising model for political reform and democratic transition, but since crushing a popular pro-democracy protest movement in 2011, the monarchy has systematically eliminated a broad range of political rights and civil liberties. The country has a mixed public/private healthcare system, and a mixed economy, with the government controlling many basic industries. It was one of the first states in the Gulf to discover oil and build a refinery, but oil production has never reached the same heights as in neighbouring countries, so Bahrain has had to diversify its economy into areas such as banking, finance and tourism.

Bahrain's culture shares many similarities with its Arab neighbours in the Gulf region, and is governed by Islamic rules and moral codes. However, it is regarded as relatively liberal and cosmopolitan compared with its near neighbours of Iran and Saudi Arabia, with its culture described as 'Middle East lite', with less restrictions on women's rights and more tolerance of other religions.

The Shia-Sunni Divide: The Shia majority and Sunni rulers have had long-running tensions, which have boiled over into civil disobedience

Bahrain is a small Arab state situated in a bay on the southwestern coast of the Persian Gulf. It is an archipelago consisting of Bahrain Island and about 30 smaller islands. The country's name, "Bahrain", comes from the Arabic term "al-baḥrayn", meaning "two seas".

Bahrain has a population of about 1.5 million people, with 70-71% identifying as Shia Muslims and 38-40% as Sunni Muslims. The country is ruled by a Sunni king, whose family holds the main political and military posts. This divide between the Shia majority and Sunni rulers has led to long-running tensions, which have sporadically boiled over into civil disobedience.

While both sides claim that the fight is not between religious sects, the sectarian divide has worsened since the 2011 uprising. Shia demonstrators have protested against discrimination and for democratic rights, with government opponents tending to be Shia and supporters Sunni. Shia leaders have endured prison and torture, and Shia protesters have been subjected to crackdowns and systematic torture by security forces. Shia Bahrainis often complain of being politically repressed and economically marginalised, with limited access to housing, healthcare, and government jobs.

Despite the tensions, there are some surprising areas of consensus between Bahrain's Sunnis and Shias. For example, three-fourths of both sects believe that Arabs should work harder to promote coexistence and cooperation, and about half support interpreting Islam in a more moderate, tolerant, and modern direction. Additionally, both groups generally agree on the importance of good ties with Washington and promoting Palestinian-Israeli peace.

However, the two sects diverge sharply in their attitudes towards Iran's policies and proxies in the region. While only 2% of Bahraini Sunnis view Iran's regional policies favourably, 68% of Shia Bahrainis hold this view. This divergence is a significant source of tension and has led to accusations from the Sunni government that Shia protesters are controlled by Iran, aiming to impose a religious dictatorship on Bahrain.

The 2011 Uprising: The monarchy has eliminated a broad range of political rights and civil liberties since crushing a popular pro-democracy protest movement in 2011

In 2011, the Kingdom of Bahrain experienced a pro-democracy protest movement inspired by the regional Arab Spring. The protests were led by the Shia majority, who had long-running tensions with the ruling Sunni monarchy. The protests began on 14 February 2011, with demonstrators taking control of Pearl Roundabout in Manama, the country's capital, seeking to emulate the protests in Tahrir Square, Cairo.

The Bahraini monarchy responded to the protests with a mixture of lethal and non-lethal force, with the help of troops from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. A Martyr's march for slain protestors on 22 February attracted over 100,000 people, amounting to more than 12% of the Bahraini population. The government also attacked hospitals and medical staff, and arrested opposition leaders.

Since the 2011 uprising, the monarchy has systematically eliminated a broad range of political rights and civil liberties. This includes conducting thousands of arrests and systematic torture, with almost daily clashes between protesters and security forces leading to dozens of deaths. The Pearl Square monument, which became a symbol of democracy during the 2011 protests, was subsequently demolished.

In March 2011, the situation escalated when other Gulf Cooperation Council member countries, led by Saudi Arabia, sent troops into Bahrain. A three-month state of emergency was declared by the King of Bahrain, and all public gatherings were banned.

Despite the release of hundreds of political prisoners in 2024 to mark 25 years of the King's rule, many remain in jail, including human rights activists and opposition leaders. Human rights organisations have expressed concern over the Bahraini government's actions, with Amnesty International stating that "systemic injustice has intensified" and that there is an "effective shutdown" of "any space for the peaceful exercise of the right to freedom of expression or peaceful activism".

Foreign Relations: Bahrain has a delicate balancing act in foreign affairs among its larger neighbours

Bahrain's small size and central location among Persian Gulf countries require it to play a delicate balancing act in foreign affairs among its larger neighbours. Bahrain has a mixed economy, with government control of many basic industries. Petroleum and natural gas are the only significant natural resources. Bahrain was one of the first states in the Gulf to discover oil and to build a refinery. Since the end of the 20th century, Bahrain has invested heavily in the banking and (medical) tourism sectors, but the country remains heavily dependent on oil and gas.

Bahrain has traditionally been a very safe destination for travellers and has low rates of crime. However, recent political unrest has caused problems in the Kingdom, meaning potential visitors should be aware of any upheaval prior to travelling.

Bahrain is ruled by a Sunni king, whose family holds the main political and military posts. The divide between the Shia majority and the Sunni rulers has led to long-running tension, which has sporadically boiled over into civil disobedience. Bahrain was once viewed as a promising model for political reform and democratic transition, but since crushing a popular pro-democracy protest movement in 2011, the monarchy has systematically eliminated a broad range of political rights and civil liberties.

Bahrain has established bilateral relations with 190 countries worldwide. It is a member of the League of Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Bahrain is also a member of the United Nations, Non-Aligned Movement, Arab League, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Bahrain is a Dialogue partner of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Bahrain has two US Military Bases in the country and is home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet. In 2001, the International Court of Justice awarded the Hawar Islands, long disputed with Qatar, to Bahrain.

Bahrain's foreign relations are also influenced by its status as a constitutional monarchy with a parliament comprising two bodies: the Shura Council and the Council of Representatives. The country is ruled by the House of Khalifa, a native Arab dynasty that has ruled Bahrain since the late 18th century.

Economic Diversification: Bahrain has had to diversify its economy into areas such as banking, finance and tourism

Bahrain has had to diversify its economy into areas such as banking, finance, and tourism. The country has one of the most diversified economies in the GCC region, with particular strengths in the financial services, ICT, manufacturing, logistics, and tourism sectors.

Bahrain's Economic Vision 2030 aims to shift the country's economy away from oil wealth towards a more globally competitive economic model. The country has established itself as a leading regional financial centre, with the financial sector contributing 16.7% to its total GDP as of April 2019. Bahrain was also the first country in the Gulf to develop a post-oil economy, investing in the banking and tourism sectors. Many of the world's largest financial institutions have a presence in the country's capital, Manama.

Bahrain's liberalised business environment, advanced infrastructure, and pro-innovation policies have made it an attractive location for foreign investment. The country offers 100% foreign ownership in most non-oil sectors, and its geographic location makes it an ideal gateway to the GCC's $2.1 trillion trade market.

In addition to financial services, Bahrain has also developed a strong manufacturing sector. The country is home to the world's largest single-site aluminium smelter, Aluminium Bahrain, with downstream businesses creating products for export. The energy sector is another pillar of Bahrain's economy, although it now accounts for a shrinking proportion of GDP.

Tourism is also a key component of Bahrain's economic diversification strategy. The country attracts a large number of tourists, particularly from other GCC countries, thanks to its history, culture, and diverse population. Bahrain's annual Formula 1 Grand Prix is a significant driver of tourism revenue. The country has also invested in improving its transport infrastructure, including expanding its international airport and developing a metro network, to further enhance its appeal as a tourist destination.

Political Reform: Bahrain was once viewed as a promising model for political reform and democratic transition

Bahrain was once viewed as a promising model for political reform and democratic transition. However, since the country's monarchy crushed a popular pro-democracy protest movement in 2011, it has systematically eliminated a broad range of political rights and civil liberties.

Bahrain's political reform movement began in 1919 and continued until the present day. The geo-political structure of Bahrain makes its political status particularly complex. On the one hand, it is located in a grey area that is a red line for the two largest religious sectors in the region: the Shiite Iranians and the Sunni Saudis. On the other hand, Bahrain is strategically situated at the heart of US policy in the region, with the US Fifth Fleet present on its territory and a Free Trade Agreement with the US in place.

Bahrain's political reform movement has been influenced by the country's unique social fabric, which includes a sectarian divide to a much higher degree than any other Arab country. The regional situation of Bahrain is also grave, with opposing parties and conflicts, including the Iranian-Saudi conflict, the Iranian-American conflict, and the Qatari-Saudi conflict. These regional conflicts impose their repercussions on the pattern of policies pursued by both the regime and the opposition parties, ultimately leading to an inability for independence and full sovereignty in strategic decision-making.

The Bahraini monarchy has historically been ruled by the Al Khalifa family, a native Arab dynasty that has ruled since the late 18th century. Recognising the islands' strategic importance, the Al Khalifa have opened Bahrain's port facilities to the naval fleets of foreign countries, including the US. The current political system in Bahrain is based on a constitutional monarchy, with the hereditary rule of the Al Khalifa family being handled by the eldest son of the king.

In 2001, Bahrain held a referendum on political reform, with Bahrainis overwhelmingly backing proposals for the country to become a constitutional monarchy with an elected lower chamber of parliament and an independent judiciary. However, the process of political openness remained cumbersome and grey, strengthening civil society and the political opposition and pro-organisations.

In 2011, inspired by the popular revolts that toppled rulers in Tunisia and Egypt, protesters gathered in Manama. This movement was met with violent measures, with Bahraini security forces confronting protesters and resulting in the death of one protester on the first day. This escalated the protests into a very wide public protest movement, with the participation of hundreds of thousands of people, including Islamic and leftist opposition parties, and unlicensed parties.

The protest movement in Bahrain can be placed in a sequence consisting of three sequential stages, which reflect the hypotheses of democracy track in oil-based constitutional monarchies. These stages include:

• The start of the events in the field and the confrontation of them using violent measures, as well as the military intervention in Bahrain for the first time on February 17, 2011, to face the protests, which led to the death of more than four people and hundreds wounded.
• The start of the stage of dialogue and negotiation between the regime and the protesting groups and opposition parties, with this situation continuing until the Bahraini army intervened again on March 17, 2011, and the Arabian Peninsula Shield forces entered Bahrain.
• The government's control over the political situation and the ending of the central protest situation, still with ongoing protests in different areas. The death toll increased to more than 40 people, and signs of regionalisation or internationalisation of the protest movement appeared.

The Bahraini monarchy has the ability to recruit groups and sub-identities to break and besiege the national identity, ultimately leading to the formation of a violent sectarian thrift. The international factor is still strong in determining the course of revolutions in Bahrain, with the type of political system (monarchy or republic) being a fundamental factor in the construction of a typical analysis of revolutions.

The Bahraini case shows the degree of complexity faced by the Arab Spring in the pattern of monarchical states, associated with the strongest degrees of other factors. This has made the international factor supportive of the regime. Additionally, the ability of the Gulf monarchies to employ financial capacity and tribal legitimacy to discourage mass media and form public political wings against the political opposition movement has been crucial. The role of the Gulf Cooperation Council in the intervention and in determining the direction of the Arab Spring revolution in Bahrain has also been clear and decisive, with the GCC pumping money directly and indirectly into the Bahraini economy and quickly reacting with a military intervention towards the Shiite movement in Bahrain.

The amount of violence used against the Arab Spring revolution in Bahrain confirms the sincerity of analyses stating that the Gulf States are qualified to transform from any national political track to a very violent sectarian one. This makes the issue of overthrowing the regime in oil-based countries more complex and creates a more complicated political and social issue. Therefore, a harsh political reform path, rather than a soft one, may be the best option for opposition political forces in the Gulf monarchies.

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