Belarus' Military Might: A Comprehensive Overview

Belarus' military strength has been a topic of discussion and concern for NATO and its eastern flank. In 2024, Belarus was ranked 64 out of 145 countries in the annual Global Firepower review, with a Power Index score of 1.0901. While the country has a limited military capability and is undermanned, its role as Russia's only western border ally is critical in the event of a Russia-NATO conflict. This dynamic has led to a military merger between Russia and Belarus, with Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka declaring that the two nations have formed a single army. The build-up of Russian troops and equipment in Belarus has raised concerns among US and European officials, particularly regarding the potential threat to Ukraine and the broader strategic and military implications for NATO.

Belarus's military strength in 2024

The Belarusian military consists of the Ground Forces and the Air Force and Air Defence Forces, all under the command of the Ministry of Defence. As a landlocked country, Belarus has no navy, but it does have control over some small Soviet-inherited naval vessels in its rivers and lakes. The Belarusian military still holds many Soviet military laws and maintains a high number of reserve personnel as a high priority.

In recent years, there has been increased military cooperation between Belarus and Russia, with the two countries conducting joint military exercises and Russia providing military aid to Belarus. This has raised concerns among NATO and Belarus's neighbours, who see it as a threat to regional security.

In terms of equipment, the Belarusian military is almost exclusively armed with Soviet-era equipment inherited from the Soviet Union, including T-72, T-62, and T-55 main battle tanks, MT-LB armoured personnel carriers, BMP-2 and BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles, and BMD-1 airborne infantry fighting vehicles. The Air Force is equipped with MiG-29 fighters, Su-25 attack aircraft, and Mi-8, Mi-24, and Mi-2 helicopters.

Belarus's military merger with Russia

Belarus and Russia have a long history of military cooperation. The two countries signed a treaty in 1997, forming the Union State, a supranational union with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through economic and defence policy integration. The Union State is ruled through the Supreme State Council, of which Alexander Lukashenko, the current president of Belarus, is also the president.

In recent years, the military cooperation between the two countries has increased significantly. In 2021, the armed forces of Russia and Belarus participated in a record number of joint drills, including the Zapad-2021 military exercises, which could turn out to be the largest military exercise in Eastern Europe in four decades. Russia has also been building permanent military infrastructure inside Belarus, including sending Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets and pilots to the Baranovichi air base in western Belarus, and deploying anti-aircraft missile troops to the western city of Hrodna, near the border with Poland and Lithuania, to set up a joint military training centre.

In February 2022, Russia and Belarus conducted massive joint military exercises, after which it was announced that Russian forces would remain in Belarus, leading to concerns that Belarus had surrendered its independence to Moscow. This was followed by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, which was partially staged from Belarus' territory, leading to sanctions and boycotts against both Russia and Belarus. In October 2022, approximately 9,000 Russian soldiers arrived in Belarus, with the stated purpose of creating a "regional military grouping" of the Union State.

Lukashenko has also floated the idea of hosting Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil several times. In May 2023, he stated that countries willing to join the Union State would be given nuclear weapons. This was followed by the movement of some of Russia's tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, with the Russian Defence Minister signing documents concerning the procedure for storing tactical nuclear weapons in the country.

The military merger between Russia and Belarus has raised security concerns among Belarus's western neighbours and NATO, with some calling it the most significant qualitative change in the security equation on NATO's eastern flank since Moscow's annexation of Crimea and armed intervention in Ukraine's Donbas region in 2014.

The impact of Lukashenko's leadership on Belarus's military

Since 1994, Alexander Lukashenko has been the president of Belarus, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko's leadership has had a significant impact on Belarus's military, with the country now ranked 64 out of 145 in the annual Global Firepower review for 2024.

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has been a defining feature of his leadership and has had a direct influence on Belarus's military. Following the disputed 2020 election, which led to mass protests and a crackdown on dissent, Lukashenko became increasingly isolated from the West and dependent on Russia. This dynamic has resulted in a steady militarisation of Belarus and the integration of Russian and Belarusian armed forces. Lukashenko has participated in joint military exercises with Russia, such as the Zapad-2021 drills, and has received military support and equipment from Russia, including fighter jets and missile troops.

Lukashenko's alignment with Russia has raised security concerns among Belarus's neighbours and NATO, particularly in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. There are fears that Belarus could be used as a springboard for invading Ukraine or conducting air raids. However, the loyalty and effectiveness of the Belarusian army have been called into question, with some suggesting that soldiers may defect or refuse to fight if ordered to invade Ukraine.

Lukashenko's domestic policies and repression of opponents have also impacted the military. He has maintained control over government spending and has near-absolute control over the legislature, allowing him to allocate significant resources to the military. At the same time, there have been reports of dissent within the military, with some soldiers allegedly providing information to opposition groups and participating in acts of sabotage.

Lukashenko's leadership has resulted in a more militarised Belarus, with increased integration and dependence on Russia. However, questions remain about the loyalty and effectiveness of the Belarusian military, particularly in the context of the conflict in Ukraine.

Belarus's military exercises with Russia

Belarus and Russia have conducted several joint military exercises in recent years, with the most recent one scheduled to take place from April 26 to 29, 2022. These drills are often viewed with concern by Ukraine, the US, and NATO countries, as they are seen as a potential cover for an invasion of Ukraine and an attempt to pressure its neighbours.

In February 2022, Russia and Belarus held what was called the largest military exercise since the Cold War. It involved up to 30,000 Russian troops and almost all of Belarus's armed forces, along with warplanes, missile launchers, and live-fire exercises. The drills took place near the Belarusian border with Ukraine, and Russia's deployment of its S-400 missile defence system in Belarus raised particular concern.

The timing and position of these exercises, along with the buildup of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border, led to fears that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine, possibly through Belarus. In response to these exercises, Ukraine also conducted its own drills involving around 10,000 troops.

The Zapad-2021 joint military exercises in September 2021 were expected to be the largest military exercise in Eastern Europe in four decades. These exercises included an amphibious assault and air patrols along the borders of Poland and Lithuania. The increasing militarization of Belarus and the integration of Russian and Belarusian armed forces have put the country's neighbours on high alert and prompted discussions of a joint response to the conventional and hybrid threats.

The close military relationship between Belarus and Russia has led Belarusian opposition figures to claim that the country has surrendered its independence to Moscow. The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has been criticised for his brutal crackdown on dissent following the disputed 2020 presidential election, which has driven him further into alignment with Russia. Lukashenko has also floated the idea of hosting Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, demonstrating his loyalty to Russia and his willingness to go beyond what is expected of him.

The role of Belarus's military in a Russia-NATO conflict

Belarus has a military Power Index score of 1.0901 for 2024, ranking it 64th out of 145 countries in the annual Global Firepower review. The country has a population of 9,383,853, out of which 4,973,442 are available manpower and 3,678,470 are fit for service. Belarus has 263,000 total military personnel, including 63,000 active personnel, 145,000 reserve personnel, and 55,000 paramilitary personnel.

In recent years, Belarus has been drawn into the conflict between Russia and NATO, with its military playing an increasingly significant role. The country's leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, has declared that Belarus and Russia have formed "a single army," with the Belarusian military forming the "backbone" of that force. Lukashenka has also stated that in the event of a war, the Belarusian army would be the first to engage, with Russian forces joining shortly after. This integration of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces has been driven by Lukashenka's crackdown on dissent following the disputed August 2020 presidential election, which led to Western sanctions and pushed him closer to Moscow.

The military merger between Russia and Belarus has been accelerating, with the two countries conducting joint military exercises, such as the Zapad-2021 drills, which may have served as a cover for an attack force to invade Ukraine. Russia has also been building permanent military infrastructure inside Belarus, including sending fighter jets and troops to Belarusian military bases. This buildup has raised concerns among NATO and Belarus's western neighbors, leading to the fortification of borders and discussions of a joint response to the growing threat.

While Belarus has historically had a partnership with NATO, relations have deteriorated in recent years due to Belarus's political and diplomatic tensions with the organization and its member states. Belarus has instead moved closer to Russia, becoming a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and participating in joint military exercises and drills. However, Belarus's cooperation with NATO has not been completely severed, as diplomatic contacts between the two continue.

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