Damon Mcknight
Australia has long been shaped by strong population growth and migration. However, it is debated whether Australia has a population policy. Some sources claim that Australia lacks an overarching population policy or strategy, despite multiple inquiries recommending one. Others argue that Australia has a highly sophisticated, multifaceted, and mostly effective population policy that focuses on managing factors such as the number of births and deaths (natural increase) and net overseas migration. The Australian government has expressed concerns about population ageing and a desire to increase the birth rate, while also managing the rate of growth through migration programs and planning and investing in infrastructure, housing, and services. Population growth in Australia is a problem mainly due to the lack of a coherent national policy to manage it, and the focus needs to be on maintaining quality of life through sustainable growth.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Population policy | Australia lacks an overarching population policy or strategy |
| Population growth | One of the fastest-growing populations in the OECD |
| Population size | 25.7 million people, expected to reach just under 30 million by 2032 |
| Fertility rate | Fluctuated between 1.7 and 2.0 births per woman for the past 42 years |
| Ageing population | Proportion of population aged 65+ would increase from 15.4% in 2017 to 26.8% in 2051 without migration |
| Migration | Net overseas migration of 200,000 per year, 54% of population growth is from migration |
| Population distribution | Focus on managing population growth in major cities like Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane |
| Population management | Government supports growth in smaller cities and regions, adjusting migration policies for regional towns |
| Population strategy | State strategies in South Australia and Tasmania focus on curbing economic downturn |
| Population targets | No optimal population size or target rate of population growth specified |
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What You'll Learn
Population ageing
Australia's population is ageing, with the proportion of people aged 65 and over increasing and the proportion of children decreasing. This is due to sustained low fertility and increasing life expectancy. In the 20 years between 2000 and 2020, the proportion of children in Australia decreased from 20.7% to 18.6% of the total population. In contrast, the population aged 65 and over grew in all states and territories, with the largest proportional increase in the Northern Territory (6.4%), followed by Western Australia (4.6%) and Queensland (4.0%). The median age of Australians has also increased, rising from 34 to 37 years over the past 20 years. The percentage of citizens aged 65 and above has increased by 3.3% during the same period.
The ageing population in Australia has had a significant impact on the labour force, with the number of employed people under 35 expected to decline in the absence of migration. Immigration plays a crucial role in addressing labour demands and slowing down population ageing. Between 2011 and 2016, employment growth consisted of 268,000 additional older workers (aged 55 and over), 613,000 new immigrants, and a decrease of 143,000 non-immigrants under 55. By 2026, more than 22% of Australians are projected to be aged over 65, up from 16% in 2020. This shift will have a significant impact on workplaces, national and household finances, and the structure of communities.
The ageing population also has implications for government spending and revenue. The increasing demand for health and aged care services among older Australians will result in higher government expenditure. It is projected that the rising number of older Australians will more than double the country's health spending on them to AUD$270 billion (USD$174 billion). Additionally, Australia is already facing a shortage of care workers, and the demand for aged care, disability, and mental health support is expected to increase. By 2050, Australia is projected to need an additional 285,800 workers in these sectors.
To address the challenges posed by population ageing, Australia's migration programme aims to encourage more migrants to settle in regional towns. The government is also easing population pressures on the country's large cities and supporting the growth of smaller cities and regions. While there is no specific target population level or rate of population growth specified in Australia's population policy, the government manages factors such as births, deaths, and net overseas migration to optimise the impact on the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.
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Immigration policy
Australia has long been a country shaped by strong population growth and migration. It has a sophisticated, multifaceted, and mostly effective population policy, which does not specify a target population or growth rate. This policy is flexible and manages factors such as births, deaths, and net overseas migration. The current Migration Program structure was implemented by the Howard Government, with the permanent residence programme (skilled and family) set at 160,000 people annually. The Gillard Government later increased this to 190,000, where it has remained. The Migration Program is designed to achieve a range of economic and social outcomes.
Historically, Australia's immigration policy has been very different from what it is today. European colonisation began in 1788, and from independence in 1901 until 1973, Australia maintained the White Australia Policy, which forbade the entrance of people of non-European ethnic origins. This policy was relaxed after World War II, with a large wave of immigration from across Europe, and it was abolished in 1973, with multiculturalism displacing cultural selectivity in immigration policy. Since then, Australia has seen a large wave of immigration from across the world, with Asia being the largest source of immigrants in the 21st century.
In recent years, international students have dominated the skilled immigrants' selection, and this is likely to continue. The skilled migration and family reunion programs are the largest components of immigration. Immigration policy must be flexible enough to respond to changes in labour demand and supply, and to skills needs. For example, between 2011 and 2016, employment increased by 738,000, with 613,000 new immigrants. In the absence of migration, the number of employed people under 35 would fall.
Australia's immigration detention policies have been criticised by human rights organisations, including the UN Human Rights Committee, which has found that the detention of children in immigration centres breaches human rights.
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Fertility rate
Australia's fertility rate has been in the ideal range of 1.7 to 2.0 births per woman for the last 42 years. This is supported by government policies such as subsidised childcare, parental leave, social security payments, and public support for early childhood education, as well as access to low-cost birth control methods.
The replacement fertility rate in Australia is 2.1. If the fertility rate fell below 1.6 and net immigration levels remained the same, the population of Australia would shrink. This is a concern for some, as a smaller population could result in a relative loss of young adults, who often bring about important technological advancements.
The Australian government's population policy does not specify a target population level or a target growth rate. Instead, it focuses on managing factors such as the number of births and deaths (natural increase) and net overseas migration. The current migration programme aims to encourage more migrants to settle in regional towns to ease the pressure on major cities.
Population growth and migration have had significant social, economic, and fiscal impacts on Australia. The government is addressing population pressures on large cities by supporting the growth of smaller cities and regions through infrastructure, housing, and service investments.
Australia's population is one of the fastest-growing in the OECD, with Victoria recording the highest growth rate among all states and territories in the last year. The impact of immigration on ageing is significant. If net migration was zero between 2017 and 2051, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over would increase from 15.4% to 26.8%. However, with net migration of 200,000 per year, this proportion would only increase to 20.5%.
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Population distribution
Australia has one of the fastest-growing populations in the OECD, with Victoria recording the highest growth rate of all states and territories in 2023. As of June 2024, Australia's population was 27.2 million, with a population density of 3.4 people per square kilometre, making it the third least densely populated country in the world. The population has grown by around 1.4% annually over the past three decades, up from 17.8 million in June 1994.
Net overseas migration has been the primary driver of Australia's population growth in recent years, contributing 57% of population growth over the past 30 years. The number of immigrants has increased from 47,000 in 1993-94 to 435,000 in 2023-24. In contrast, the natural increase (births minus deaths) has decreased from 135,000 to 106,000 over the same period. The fertility rate has declined from 1.85 to 1.49 babies per woman, while the death rate has decreased from 12.2 to 6.4 deaths per 1,000 people since 1901.
The Australian government is attempting to ease population pressures on major cities by encouraging migration to regional towns through adjusted migration policies. This approach aims to support the growth of smaller cities and regions while addressing the ageing population challenge.
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Population growth
Australia's population is one of the fastest-growing in the OECD, with Victoria recording the highest growth rate of all states and territories. The country's population growth is driven primarily by net overseas migration, which accounts for over half (54%) of its population increase.
Historically, Australia has lacked a cohesive population policy or strategy, instead relying on a quasi-population policy that uses an immigration ceiling as a lever to respond to workforce needs. While the country has benefited from its ability to grow its population through migration, avoiding the perils of population decline, there is a lack of effective communication about Australia's needs and capabilities to the public.
Successive Australian governments have tended to avoid discussing migration, fearing a negative public reaction. However, Australia has proven adaptable to significant demographic shifts over the past few decades, indicating a level of public maturity on these issues.
Currently, Australia's population policy is focused on managing multiple factors, including birth rates, death rates (natural increase), and net overseas migration. The government aims to ease population pressures on major cities like Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane, supporting the growth of smaller cities and regions. This involves planning and investing in infrastructure, housing, and services to meet the needs of current and future generations.
To address population ageing, the government has implemented policies like subsidised childcare, parental leave, social security payments, and public support for early childhood education, contributing to a fertility rate of 1.7 to 2.0 births per woman over the past 42 years. However, the ageing population remains a concern, with the proportion of those aged 65 and over projected to increase significantly by 2051.
Australia's population growth is a critical challenge, requiring a coherent national policy to ensure sustainable growth and maintain the quality of life for its citizens.
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Frequently asked questions
No, Australia does not have an overarching population policy or strategy. However, it does have a highly sophisticated, multifaceted, and mostly effective population approach.
Australia's population policy approach depends on managing factors such as the number of births and deaths (natural increase) and net overseas migration. The country's population policy is about managing ageing, immigration, economic development, and the growth of cities and regions.
Immigration has a significant impact on ageing in Australia. Without immigration, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over would increase from 15.4% in 2017 to 26.8% in 2051. Australia's future natural increase is heavily dependent on immigration.
The lack of a coherent national population policy in Australia has resulted in inadequate responses to the challenge of an ageing population. It has also led to a sole focus on immigration as a lever to address workforce needs, neglecting other issues such as quality of life, infrastructure, and distribution.
