The Shadow Of Dictatorship In Afghanistan: A Country In Search Of Stability

Afghanistan has been described as a totalitarian emirate within an Islamic theocracy, with the Taliban Movement holding a monopoly on power. The country's politics have been unstable for decades, with frequent coups, civil wars, and violent transfers of power. The government is self-described as interim, with no clear constitution or basis for the rule of law. Power is concentrated in the hands of the supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, and his clerical advisors. Afghanistan has been governed by various systems, including a monarchy, republic, theocracy, dictatorship, and a pro-communist state.

The country's history is marked by domination by foreign conquerors and strife among internally warring factions. In recent years, the Taliban's strict interpretation of Sharia law and enforcement of Islamic values have drawn criticism and concerns about human rights violations. The international community has imposed sanctions and refused to recognize the Taliban's authority.

With the Taliban's return to power in 2021, Afghanistan's political future remains uncertain, and the country continues to face challenges in establishing a stable and inclusive government.

Afghanistan's current government

The Taliban's rule has been characterised by harsh restrictions on women and girls, with bans on education, employment, and participation in sports. They have also restricted freedom of expression and assembly, with journalists, human rights activists, and protesters facing detention, violence, and intimidation. The Taliban has struggled to establish a formal governance structure and has faced internal power struggles, particularly between pragmatic leaders seeking to stabilise the economy and hardliners who control the government.

The country's economic and humanitarian situation has deteriorated under the Taliban, with the loss of foreign aid, a decline in imports, and a collapse of the economy. The Taliban has, however, managed to stabilise the currency, reduce inflation, and increase exports.

Internationally, the Taliban government has faced isolation, with other governments refusing to recognise it and imposing sanctions. The Taliban has also faced criticism for its close ties with terrorist groups, particularly al-Qaeda.

The Taliban's rise to power

The Taliban, whose name means "students" or "seekers", first rose to power in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s, following the withdrawal of Soviet troops, the collapse of the country's communist regime, and the breakdown of civil order. The group emerged as a small force of Afghan religious students and scholars seeking to confront crime and corruption.

1978:

The Saur Revolution brings the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan to power, backed by the Soviet Union. The new regime subsequently launches a Marxist campaign against religious leaders.

1979:

The Iranian Revolution spreads militant Islamism to Afghanistan, and a larger insurgency by the Mujahideen begins. The Soviet Union intervenes in Afghanistan, and Islamic Mujahideen fighters engage in war with Soviet forces.

1989:

Soviet forces withdraw from Afghanistan, leaving a power vacuum. The country is torn apart by warring Mujahideen groups.

1992:

The Afghan Marxist regime falls, and the new "Islamic State of Afghanistan" is dominated by Tajik and Uzbek leaders. This leads to resentment among the Pushtun, the country's largest ethnic group.

1994:

A small Taliban militia first emerges near Kandahar, committing vigilante acts against minor warlords. They receive backing from local Pashtun leaders, as well as assistance from Pakistan.

October-November 1994:

The Taliban's first major military action occurs when they march from Maiwand in southern Afghanistan to capture Kandahar City and the surrounding provinces. They are aided by either private Pakistani trucking interests or the Pakistani government.

1995:

The Taliban capture Herat, and all of southern Afghanistan is now under their control.

Spring 1996:

Mullah Omar, the founder of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, holds a meeting of over a thousand Pashtun leaders in Kandahar. The assembly ratifies him as the Amir al-Mu'minin and declares the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

August 1996:

The Taliban launch a surprise attack on Jalalabad and advance towards Kabul.

September 26, 1996:

Massoud withdraws from Kabul, and the Taliban enter the city the next day. The capture of the capital gives the Taliban a new height of prestige.

2001:

The Taliban regime collapses following the United States invasion of Afghanistan.

2021:

The Taliban regains control of Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops.

The country's history of dictatorship

Afghanistan has been ruled by various systems of government, including a monarchy, republic, theocracy, dictatorship, and a pro-communist state. The country has a long history of domination by foreign conquerors and strife among internally warring factions.

In the 1800s, Britain attempted to annex Afghanistan, resulting in a series of British-Afghan Wars (1838-42, 1878-80, 1919-21). The British were defeated in the Third Anglo-Afghan War (1919-21), and Afghanistan became an independent nation.

In 1973, Mohammed Daoud Khan, Prime Minister and a member of the royal family, seized power while King Mohammad Zahir Shah was visiting Italy. In 1978, Daoud Khan and his family were assassinated during the Saur Revolution, and the communist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) seized power.

The PDPA implemented a Marxist-Leninist agenda, introducing contentious reforms such as land and marriage reforms, and an enforced policy of de-Islamization alongside the promotion of socialism. The PDPA imprisoned, tortured, or murdered thousands of members of the traditional elite, the religious establishment, and the intelligentsia.

In 1979, Hafizullah Amin took over as prime minister, retaining the position of field marshal and becoming vice president of the Supreme Defence Council. However, his rule proved unpopular, and he was overthrown and killed later that year.

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, marking the beginning of the Soviet-Afghan War. The Soviet and Afghan government forces fought against the Afghan mujahideen, resulting in a large number of civilian casualties and the creation of millions of refugees.

In 1986, PDPA General Secretary and President Mohammad Najibullah pursued a policy of National Reconciliation, calling for a six-month ceasefire and talks between the various opposition forces. However, the government continued to face increasing resistance, and in 1992, Najibullah's government collapsed, leading to another civil war.

In 1996, the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban controlled most of the country, imposing strict interpretations of Sharia law and curtailing the rights and freedoms of women. The Taliban remained in power until 2001, when they were overthrown by a US-led coalition.

Since then, Afghanistan has continued to experience instability, with frequent coups, civil wars, and violent transfers of power. In 2021, the Taliban seized power once again, implementing an even stricter interpretation of Sharia law. The country currently functions without a clear constitution or any basis for the rule of law, with all power concentrated in the hands of the supreme leader and his clerical advisors.

The role of foreign powers

Afghanistan has a long history of domination by foreign powers, and its politics have been shaped by intervention from other countries. The country's strategic location between Asia and Europe has made it a target for conquest throughout history.

The first known foreign intervention in Afghanistan occurred when the area was conquered by Darius I of Babylonia around 500 BC, followed by Alexander the Great of Macedonia in 329 BC. In the 11th century, Mahmud of Ghazni created an empire stretching from Iran to India, and he is considered Afghanistan's greatest conqueror. Genghis Khan took control of the territory in the 13th century, and the area was united as a single country in the 1700s.

In the 19th century, Britain attempted to annex Afghanistan from India to protect its empire from Russia, resulting in a series of British-Afghan Wars between 1838 and 1880. The Third Anglo-Afghan War (1919-1921) resulted in Afghanistan becoming an independent nation.

During the Cold War, Afghanistan became a proxy battleground between the United States and the Soviet Union. In 1973, Mohammed Daoud Khan, Prime Minister and a member of the royal family, seized power from King Mohammad Zahir Shah while he was in Italy. Daoud Khan was assassinated in 1978 during the Saur Revolution, and the communist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) took control.

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 to support the PDPA government, which was facing internal power struggles and an armed revolt by conservative Islamic and ethnic leaders. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan funnelled billions of dollars to the mujahideen, or Afghan guerrillas, to sustain the conflict against the Soviet-backed government. Osama bin Laden, the founder of al-Qaeda, travelled to Afghanistan during this time to aid the anti-Soviet fighters.

The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan was violent and resulted in the deaths of at least 500,000 Afghans, with some estimates reaching as high as 2 million. Millions more fled the country as refugees. The Soviets were responsible for war crimes in their attempts to end the insurgency.

The Soviet Union withdrew its troops from Afghanistan in 1989, but the fighting continued until 1996, when the Taliban seized control of the country. The Taliban enforced a strict interpretation of Sharia law and curtailed the rights of women, requiring them to be fully veiled and prohibited from going outside alone.

In 2001, the United States and its allies invaded Afghanistan in response to the September 11 terrorist attacks, which were planned by al-Qaeda operatives based in Afghanistan. The main purpose of the invasion was to capture or kill Osama bin Laden and dismantle al-Qaeda. The Taliban regime collapsed, and Hamid Karzai became the leader of the Afghan Interim Administration.

The United States and its allies attempted to rebuild Afghanistan by providing humanitarian and reconstruction assistance. However, these efforts were inadequate and hampered by waste and confusion over responsibilities. The focus soon shifted to the war in Iraq, and Afghanistan continued to suffer from violence and instability.

In 2021, the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan as foreign troops withdrew, leading to concerns about a rollback of human rights gains and a resurgence of terrorist groups.

The future of democracy in Afghanistan

Afghanistan has been ruled by various systems of government, including a monarchy, republic, theocracy, dictatorship, and a pro-communist state. The country has a long history of domination by foreign conquerors and strife among internally warring factions.

The first elements of a democratic government in the country began to emerge under the leadership of Ghazi Amanullah Khan, who ruled first as the Emir of the Emirate of Afghanistan and later as the first King of the Kingdom of Afghanistan. Amanullah instituted a number of political reforms modeled on the Western democratic model, including drafting the country's first constitution. Under Amanullah's rule, new co-educational schools were formed in many regions, and the strict Sharia-based dress codes for women that had existed for centuries were overturned.

However, due to his significant popularity among the Afghan populace and his Western-outlook, conservative Islamists in the country staged a revolt, leading to the overthrow of Amanullah's government. For much of the rest of the 20th century, until 1964, there was limited democratization in the country. In 1964, King Zahir Shah promulgated a new liberal constitution creating a bicameral national legislature. Political parties began to form, but none of these reforms were lasting after Zahir Shah's removal from power in 1973 and the formation of an autocratic Afghanistan republic.

The country experienced increasingly severe democratic backsliding from 1973 onwards, eventually falling under the undemocratic, religiously conservative Taliban rule in 1996. Democracy was reintroduced following the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, where an Islamic Republic with a president and a relatively liberal constitution was reinstated.

Since the Taliban's takeover in 2021, Afghanistan has again experienced democratic backsliding. The Taliban have closed the country's political space, restricted personal and political freedoms, and curtailed the rights of women and minority groups. The Taliban have not committed to holding new elections and have abolished the electoral bodies that were in place under the previous government.

Despite these challenges, there is still hope for the future of democracy in Afghanistan. Stable democracy may be elusive at present, but that is no reason to give up on it. Voting rights are widely valued across Afghanistan, and the Afghan people have become accustomed to participating in the democratic process, even if elections are hampered by fraud and security concerns.

Establishing local structures that facilitate stronger connections between citizens and their representatives will be key to giving legitimacy and stability to the political process going forward. Allowing communities to decide how to select local leaders and conduct local elections could make elections more attractive to Taliban leaders and encourage greater cooperation between formal and informal systems of governance.

While the path to democracy in Afghanistan will be challenging, it is important to remember that democracy has a past in the country, and there is good reason to continue to support it.

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