The Afghan Conundrum: Exploring Diplomatic Alternatives

The war in Afghanistan was not solved diplomatically. The war ended with the withdrawal of U.S. and Allied forces from Afghanistan on August 30, 2021, and the forcible takeover by the Taliban.

The U.S. established diplomatic ties with Afghanistan in 1935. In 2012, the U.S. and Afghanistan concluded the Strategic Partnership Agreement to strengthen their bilateral relationship, support Afghanistan's capabilities as a partner, and improve the lives of the Afghan people.

In February 2020, the U.S. and the Taliban signed the Doha Agreement, which set a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. The U.S. pledged to draw down U.S. troops to approximately 8,500 within 135 days and complete a full withdrawal within fourteen months. In return, the Taliban pledged to prevent territory under its control from being used by terrorist groups and to enter negotiations with the Afghan government.

However, no official ceasefire was put in place. After a brief reduction in violence, the Taliban quickly resumed attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians. Direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban began months after the agreed-upon start of March 2020; however, the negotiations faced multiple delays and ultimately made little progress.

In April 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that U.S. military forces would leave Afghanistan by September 2021. The Taliban, which had continued to capture and contest territory across the country despite ongoing peace talks with the Afghan government, ramped up attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians.

On August 15, 2021, over two weeks before the official U.S. withdrawal deadline, Taliban fighters entered the capital. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani subsequently fled the country, and the Afghan government collapsed. Later that same day, the Taliban announced they had entered the presidential palace, taken control of Kabul, and were establishing checkpoints to maintain security.

The U.S. has an interest in attempting to preserve the many political, human rights, and security gains that were achieved in Afghanistan since 2001. The Taliban takeover of the country could once again turn Afghanistan into a terrorist safe haven, as the group is believed to maintain ties with al-Qaeda. The takeover also threatens to reverse advances made in securing the rights of women and girls, most of which the Taliban has already erased.

The Biden administration, which faced heavy criticism over the botched exit, released a report claiming the Trump administration bears most of the responsibility, having waited too long to begin withdrawal preparations, severely constraining Biden's options.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was a response to the Taliban's refusal to hand over terrorist leader Osama bin Laden in the wake of al-Qaeda's 9/11 attacks

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 was a direct response to the Taliban's refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, in the wake of the 9/11 attacks.

Osama bin Laden was the leader of al-Qaeda, the terrorist organisation responsible for the 9/11 attacks. In the aftermath of the attacks, the US demanded that the Taliban government in Afghanistan extradite bin Laden to the US and expel al-Qaeda militants from the country. The Taliban refused, and the US, alongside the UK, launched Operation Enduring Freedom on October 7, 2001.

The invasion was also motivated by a desire to dismantle al-Qaeda and deny Islamist militants a base of operations in Afghanistan.

The US and the Taliban signed a peace deal in 2020, which set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan

The US-Taliban peace deal, also known as the Doha Agreement, was signed on February 29, 2020, in Doha, Qatar. The agreement set a timeline for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. The US pledged to reduce its troops to approximately 8,500 within 135 days and to complete a full withdrawal within 14 months. In return, the Taliban pledged to prevent territory under its control from being used by terrorist groups and to enter negotiations with the Afghan government. However, no official ceasefire was put in place.

The peace deal was a turning point in the 18-year war in Afghanistan. However, after a brief reduction in violence, the Taliban quickly resumed attacks on Afghan security forces and civilians. The intra-Afghan talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban faced multiple delays and ultimately made little progress. Violence across Afghanistan continued in 2020 and 2021 as the US increased airstrikes and raids targeting the Taliban. The Taliban, in turn, attacked Afghan government and security forces and made significant territorial gains.

In April 2021, US President Joe Biden announced that US military forces would leave Afghanistan by September 2021. The Taliban ramped up attacks on security bases and outposts and rapidly seized more territory. By the end of July 2021, the US had completed nearly 95% of its withdrawal, leaving just 650 troops to protect the US embassy in Kabul.

On August 15, 2021, over two weeks before the official US withdrawal deadline, Taliban fighters entered the capital, Kabul, and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. The Taliban announced that they had entered the presidential palace, taken control of Kabul, and were establishing checkpoints to maintain security. On August 31, 2021, the Pentagon announced the completion of the US troop withdrawal.

The Taliban took control of Afghanistan in August 2021, after the US-backed government collapsed and President Ashraf Ghani fled the country

Firstly, the US-backed Afghan government faced challenges due to its lack of legitimacy in the eyes of the Afghan people. The 2004 Constitution created a system where Afghan citizens had little opportunity to participate in or oversee their government. International donors, rather than the Afghan people, were the primary focus of accountability, which led to a widening gap between the promises of the US intervention and the realities experienced by citizens.

Additionally, the Afghan government struggled with corruption and ineffective governance. President Ghani has been criticized for governing through a narrow circle of loyalists, which contributed to the government's destabilization. The centralization of power in Kabul and the exclusion of the Afghan government from US-Taliban talks further undermined its legitimacy and ability to govern effectively.

The decision-making processes of Afghan leaders also played a role in the government's collapse. Kabul failed to recognize the imminent US withdrawal and insisted on integrating the Taliban into the existing republic rather than creating a new model. This inflexibility, coupled with the Taliban's refusal to compromise and their insistence on continuing their war against Ghani's government, made a peaceful resolution difficult.

As the Taliban advanced towards Kabul, President Ghani fled the country, stating that he wanted to avoid bloodshed and a potential human disaster in the capital city. With the collapse of the US-backed government, the Taliban seized power and established control over Afghanistan, raising concerns about the deterioration of civil liberties, especially for women and girls.

In summary, the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 was the result of a combination of factors, including a lack of legitimacy and ineffective governance in the US-backed Afghan government, failed diplomatic efforts, and the determination of the Taliban to regain power. The consequences of these events continue to have significant implications for the people of Afghanistan.

The US has an interest in preserving the political, human rights, and security gains that were achieved in Afghanistan since 2001

The US has an interest in preserving the many political, human rights, and security gains that were achieved in Afghanistan since 2001. The Taliban takeover of the country could once again turn Afghanistan into a terrorist safe haven, as the group is believed to maintain ties with al-Qaeda. The takeover also threatens to reverse advances made in securing the rights of women and girls, most of which the Taliban has already erased. Moreover, increasing internal instability, a mass exodus of refugees, and a growing humanitarian crisis further exacerbated by climate change and global food and energy markets could have regional spillover effects. Additionally, Pakistan, India, Iran, and Russia are all likely to compete for influence in Kabul and with subnational actors.

The Taliban takeover threatens to reverse advances in liberal and democratic rights and freedoms, particularly those of women and girls

The Taliban takeover in Afghanistan has resulted in a rollback of the rights and freedoms of women and girls. The Taliban have imposed restrictions on women's education, employment, and movement, and have enforced public executions and corporal punishment such as stoning and flogging.

The Taliban's restrictions on women's education include banning girls from attending secondary school and women from attending universities. The Taliban have also banned women from working in the public sector, except in areas such as healthcare and primary education. Women are also banned from travelling more than 72km without a male chaperone.

The Taliban have also enforced public executions and corporal punishment such as stoning and flogging. The Taliban's Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice enforces prohibitions on behaviour deemed un-Islamic.

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