Austria's Nato Future: What's The Reality?

Austria has maintained neutrality since 1955, and is one of the only members of the European Union that is not a member of NATO. While Austria has contributed troops to UN peacekeeping missions, its military is little more than a disaster response unit. Austria's neutrality is enshrined in its constitution, which prohibits the country from joining a military alliance, hosting foreign military bases, or participating in wars. However, there have been recent debates about whether Austria should abandon neutrality and join NATO, especially in light of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. While some Austrians have argued in favour of NATO membership, the idea is not widely popular with the Austrian public, with only 21% supporting the move, according to a 2023 survey.

Austria's constitution prohibits it from joining a military alliance

Austria's Constitution, specifically Article 9 of the Federal Constitutional Law, includes a provision that explicitly prohibits the country from joining a military alliance. This legal provision, often referred to as the "military alliance prohibition," serves as a fundamental pillar of Austria's foreign policy and has significant implications for any potential discussion about joining NATO.

The military alliance prohibition is a direct consequence of Austria's historical context and the principles upon which the Second Republic was founded after World War II. During the post-war negotiations, Austria declared its neutrality as a way to assert its sovereignty and independence, especially in the context of the growing tensions of the Cold War. By committing to a policy of neutrality, Austria aimed to avoid involvement in military conflicts and to position itself as a bridge between East and West.

Article 9 of the Federal Constitutional Law thus stipulates that "Austria shall not join a military alliance." This provision is intentionally clear and concise, leaving little room for interpretation. It reflects a strong commitment to neutrality and non-alignment, which has enjoyed broad support across the Austrian political spectrum for decades. Any proposal to join a military organization, including NATO, would directly contradict this constitutional provision and would require a significant amendment to the country's foundational legal document.

The implications of this constitutional prohibition are profound and far-reaching. For Austria to even consider joining NATO, a comprehensive and complex process would need to be undertaken. It would involve extensive political and legal discussions, as well as a potential nationwide referendum, given the far-reaching implications for the country's foreign and security policy orientation. Changing this aspect of the constitution would require a two-thirds majority in parliament, and public opinion would play a crucial role in influencing the decisions of lawmakers.

Austria's neutrality is a result of its history

The Austrian State Treaty, signed in May 1955, ended the occupation and required Austria to proclaim its neutrality. The same year, Austria joined the United Nations and the Council of Europe. On October 26, 1955, the Austrian Parliament formally declared the country's permanent neutrality as a constitutional act. This Declaration of Neutrality prohibited Austria from joining any military alliances, hosting foreign military bases, or participating in wars.

Since then, neutrality has become an integral part of Austrian identity. Austria's commitment to neutrality has been tested over time, especially with its membership in international organizations like the European Union and its participation in peacekeeping missions. While there have been debates and calls for Austria to join NATO, particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Austrian public opinion remains largely opposed to the idea, with a strong preference for maintaining neutrality.

Austria's public opinion is against joining NATO

Austria's neutrality is enshrined in its constitution, which prohibits the country from joining a military alliance. While this is not irrevocable, it would require a parliamentary supermajority to lift the dogma.

Austrian public opinion is against joining NATO. In a government-sponsored poll from March 2022, 91% of Austrians said that neutrality was important to them personally. In May 2022, a poll showed that only 14% of Austrians favoured joining NATO, while 75% were opposed. Another survey in April 2023 by the Austrian Society for European Politics found that only 21% of Austrians supported joining NATO, while 60% were opposed.

Austria's neutrality is based on several factors. Firstly, it is seen as the price the country had to pay to end the postwar Allied occupation and regain its independence in 1955. Secondly, neutrality is believed to have contributed to the country's prosperity, particularly the "economic miracle" of the 1960s. Thirdly, neutrality allowed Austria to play a significant role in global affairs in the 1970s, with then-Chancellor Bruno Kreisky's diplomatic and peacebuilding initiatives.

However, experts question how long Austria can maintain its neutrality, especially in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While Austria has supported European weapons deliveries to Kyiv and deepened defence cooperation with its Western European NATO neighbours, it has not exported weapons to Ukraine or participated in training Ukrainian forces. Additionally, major Austrian companies continue to operate in Russia despite sanctions.

There is a growing divide between public opinion and expert perceptions on the question of Austrian neutrality. While the public largely supports maintaining neutrality, experts argue that Austria's prosperity, security, and place in the world are no longer tied to neutrality. They believe that Austria's neutrality-linked independent foreign policy is outdated and that the country needs to accept responsibility and join the NATO alliance.

Austria's political parties are against joining NATO

Austria's political parties are predominantly against joining NATO, with only the liberal NEOS party, which holds just 15 of the 183 seats in the National Council, openly supporting the country's NATO membership. The Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) has historically been divided on the issue, with some members, such as conservative politician Andreas Khol and former Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel, advocating for NATO membership, particularly in light of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the current Chancellor, Karl Nehammer, has rejected the idea of reopening the discussion around Austria's neutrality, reflecting the sentiment of the Austrian public, who largely oppose joining the alliance.

The far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), which is currently leading in the polls ahead of the 2024 national parliamentary elections, has distinguished itself from other parties by taking an alternative stance on Russia and Ukraine. The FPÖ views Putin's Russia as a constraint on the "liberal cultural and economic agenda" pursued by the EU and the US. This position has gained traction among Austrians, with popular support for maintaining neutrality reaching 71% in the summer of 2022. The FPÖ's stance aligns with that of the Austrian public, who are reluctant to abandon their country's constitutionally enshrined neutrality, which prohibits joining military alliances, hosting foreign military bases, and participating in wars.

Austria's commitment to neutrality is deeply rooted in its history. Following World War II, the Soviet Union insisted that a reunified Austria adopt Swiss neutrality, which was subsequently enshrined in the Austrian State Treaty and the Declaration of Neutrality in 1955. This stance was further solidified during the Cold War, when Austria found itself geographically clenched between NATO and Warsaw Pact states, making neutrality a lucrative necessity to avoid conflicts and build bridges between the two blocs. While geopolitical realities have shifted since then, with Austria now surrounded primarily by EU and NATO members, the idea of neutrality remains popular among Austrians, who see themselves as mediators between Russia and the West.

Despite Austria's close relationship with NATO and its participation in the Partnership for Peace programme, as well as United Nations peacekeeping operations, there is widespread opposition to joining the alliance among political parties and the public. This opposition is driven by a combination of historical factors, economic interests, and a desire to maintain peaceful relations and prosperity. As a result, Austria's political landscape largely reflects the public's sentiment, with most parties choosing to avoid publicly debating the country's security and alignment, instead opting to maintain the status quo of neutrality.

Austria's relationship with Russia

Austria and Russia have had a long and complex relationship, characterised by pragmatism, dialogue, and diplomacy. Here is an overview of the key aspects of their bilateral ties:

Historical Context:

Austria and Russia, or their predecessor states, have had relations for centuries. The history of Austria during the time of the Holy Roman Empire was intertwined with the foreign policy of the Habsburgs. Contacts between the two powers increased as the Habsburgs expanded their domain, and Russia became more involved in European affairs under Peter I. The two empires found themselves on the same side during several conflicts, including the War of the Polish Succession, the War of the Austrian Succession, and the Seven Years' War. They also collaborated during the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars, united by their shared absolutist monarchies.

Post-World War II:

After World War II, Austria was occupied by the Allied powers and divided into four zones. To regain its independence, Austria agreed to enshrine neutrality in its constitution, which was a requirement imposed by the Soviet Union. This neutrality prevented Austria from joining a military alliance or hosting foreign military bases. Additionally, Austria was prohibited from unifying with other German-speaking nations, a clause that aimed to prevent a resurgence of German power.

Cold War Era:

During the Cold War, Austria's neutrality allowed it to become a bridge between East and West, conducting business with both sides of the Iron Curtain. In 1968, Austria became the first Western European country to sign a long-term contract with the Soviet Union for natural gas supplies. However, this relationship was tested when Soviet tanks invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968, raising fears in Austria of a potential Soviet invasion. Nevertheless, the gas deal remained intact, and the Soviets did not invade Austria.

Recent Developments:

In recent years, Austria has walked a fine line in its relationship with Russia, particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Austria has supported EU sanctions against Russia and provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine. However, it has been reluctant to fully disengage from Russia, especially in the energy and finance sectors. Austrian companies like Raiffeisen Bank International and OMV continue to have significant operations in Russia. Additionally, Austria has been accused of having its establishments infiltrated by Russian intelligence services, and there have been instances of Austrian politicians and officials working with Russian interests.

In conclusion, Austria's relationship with Russia is complex and multifaceted, shaped by historical circumstances, economic interests, and geopolitical realities. While Austria has taken steps to distance itself from Russia in light of recent events, the depth of their bilateral ties and Austria's commitment to neutrality present ongoing challenges.

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