India's Strategic Calculus: Assessing The Potential For Military Action In Afghanistan

India has no plans to militarily intervene in Afghanistan, with government sources stating that any involvement will pull India into a vortex. Instead, India is considering providing benign support in the form of equipment maintenance, training, and spare parts. This decision comes as the Taliban makes rapid advances in Afghanistan, capturing major towns and causing concern for the safety of Indian nationals in the country. The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan has serious ramifications for India, including the threat to Indian investments and citizens, the rise of international terror groups, and the impact on Afghanistan's women's and minority rights. India's options are limited, and it must carefully consider its next steps to protect its interests in the region.

India's stance on the Taliban

India has much at stake in Afghanistan's future, being one of its most significant donors and providing development assistance to the civilian Afghan government over the last two decades. India has also helped restore the country's war-ravaged power grid, offered food assistance, and provided scholarships to Afghan students.

Despite the Taliban's assurances, India's security establishment fears that Afghanistan could once again become a regional terrorist haven, with the Taliban giving free rein to anti-Indian terrorist organisations. This could also sow chaos in Indian-administered Kashmir, with Pakistan's intelligence agency, ISI, likely to exploit the situation.

The return of proscribed militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) could be detrimental to India's security. In the past, the Taliban actively assisted terrorists targeting Indian citizens, such as in the 1999 hijacking of an Indian Airlines flight, which led to the founding of JeM.

With China and Pakistan, India's rivals, deepening their footprints in Afghanistan, India faces a challenging situation. China is seeking to expand its Belt and Road Initiative into Afghanistan and has already hosted the Taliban leadership in Beijing.

India's policy options are limited, and none are easy or without repercussions. One option is to stick to its principle of only backing a democratically-elected government in Kabul and providing political and humanitarian support. Another option is to supply the ANDSF with military supplies, although the Taliban has threatened consequences if India does so. Accelerating contacts with the Taliban is another possibility, but this may not give India much leverage given Pakistan's influence. Finally, India could wait and watch, but this option denies India relevance at the "high table" where Afghanistan's future is discussed.

India's response to the crisis in Afghanistan has largely been silent, focusing only on evacuation efforts for its embassy personnel in Kabul. It has also prioritised Hindus and Sikhs in issuing 'emergency visas' to Afghans, drawing criticism from those who argue that India should not differentiate based on religious identity.

The threat to Indian investments

The Taliban's rise to power in Afghanistan threatens India's diplomatic interests and its investments in the country over the last two decades. India has invested over $3 billion in Afghanistan, focusing on building infrastructure, education, medical, agriculture, and power generation projects. The future of these projects is now uncertain, and India risks losing its investments and the goodwill it has cultivated with the Afghan people.

One of India's notable investments is the Zaranj-Delaram Highway, a $150 million project completed in 2009. The 218-km highway connects Zaranj, near the Afghanistan-Iran border, to Delaram in the northeast. This road is of strategic importance to India as it provides an alternative trade route to landlocked Afghanistan through Iran's Chabahar port, bypassing Pakistan, which denies India overland access. However, with the Taliban in control, trade through Afghanistan will likely be routed through Karachi and Gwadar, and the Chabahar port investment may become unviable.

Another significant investment is the Salma Dam in Herat province, also known as the Afghan-India Friendship Dam. This hydropower and irrigation project, completed in 2016, has recently come under attack by the Taliban, who claim control of the surrounding area. The dam generates electricity and irrigates fields, benefiting the surrounding districts and thousands of hectares of land.

In addition to these, India has also invested in building roads, schools, hospitals, and other community development projects across Afghanistan. It has provided scholarships to Afghan students and assisted in constructing the Afghan Parliament building in Kabul, which cost $90 million. India has also committed to constructing the Shatoot Dam in Kabul, which will provide drinking water to over 2 million Afghans, and announced over 100 community development projects worth $80 million.

With the Taliban's return to power, there are concerns about the fate of these projects and whether India's investments will be lost. The Taliban's control could lead to a halt in ongoing projects and a rollback of the progress made. The security situation poses a challenge to the maintenance and sustainability of these projects, and India may struggle to protect its interests in the country.

Furthermore, the Taliban's rule could lead to a resurgence of international terror groups like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which have historically found safe havens in Afghanistan. This poses a direct threat to India's nationals and interests in the region, particularly in Kashmir. The rise of these terror groups could also impact the stability of neighbouring countries and lead to an increase in terror activities.

The safety of Indian nationals in Afghanistan

In August 2021, the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan, prompting concerns about the safety and security of Indian citizens in the country under Taliban rule. In response, the Indian government evacuated its embassy in Kabul and flew out over 500 Indian diplomats, security officials, and other nationals.

Since the Taliban takeover, Indian officials have advised Indian nationals in Afghanistan to take the necessary security precautions, be vigilant, and avoid non-essential travel to the country. Similarly, Indian citizens visiting Afghanistan have been advised to exercise utmost caution and vigilance.

India has had a complex relationship with Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, and in addition to concerns about the safety of its citizens, India has also been worried about its diplomatic presence in the country. To address these concerns, the Indian government has taken several measures to ensure the safety of its citizens in Afghanistan.

These measures include issuing security advisories and providing regular updates to its citizens in Afghanistan, keeping them informed about potential risks and recommending appropriate safety measures. Indian citizens in Afghanistan have also been encouraged to register with the Indian embassy or consulate to facilitate effective communication and assistance in case of an emergency.

The Indian government continues to closely monitor the situation in Afghanistan and coordinate with local and international partners to ensure the protection of its citizens. While the safety of Indian nationals in Afghanistan remains a top priority, the evolving political and security landscape in the country presents ongoing challenges.

The rise of international terror groups

The withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban rule have led to a resurgence of terrorist groups in the country. The Taliban government has close ties with several terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, and has allowed them to rebuild and re-establish training camps. Afghanistan's status as a weak and failing state, with a struggling economy and lack of basic services, provides a conducive environment for terrorist groups to operate and recruit members.

Al-Qaeda, a Sunni Islamist group, has a long history of presence in Afghanistan and has previously used the country as a base to recruit, train, and deploy terrorists to other countries. With the Taliban's support, al-Qaeda has regained strength and could pose a significant threat beyond Afghanistan. The Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K), a rival of the Taliban, has also doubled in size and poses a threat to the region. ISIS-K has claimed responsibility for several attacks in Afghanistan, including the 2021 attack on Kabul airport that killed over 180 people.

In addition to al-Qaeda and ISIS-K, other regional and international terrorist groups operate in Afghanistan, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, Islamic Jihad Group, Khatiba Imam al-Bukhari, and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. These groups have conducted high-profile attacks in various countries, including India, and their presence in Afghanistan poses a significant threat to regional stability.

The Taliban's return to power has also emboldened other militant groups, such as Tehrik-e-Taliban, also known as the Pakistani Taliban. The group has launched attacks across Pakistan and has found safe haven in Afghanistan.

The threat of radicalisation

The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan has heightened fears of growing radicalisation in the region. With the Taliban's history of supporting various terror groups, such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, there are concerns that their control over Afghanistan will empower these organisations and lead to an increase in terrorist activities, particularly in Kashmir. The Taliban's ideology and actions, including their treatment of women and minorities, pose a significant threat to India's interests and values.

In the past, a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan has contributed to militancy and conflict in Kashmir. Declassified US government documents reveal the nexus between the Taliban and Pakistan's "anti-India militant" training camps. The return of militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) could severely impact India's security and stability. Additionally, the presence of transnational jihadist groups in Afghanistan, such as al-Qaeda, poses a direct threat to India and other countries in the region.

To address these concerns, India has taken several steps. It has evacuated its citizens from Afghanistan, reduced its diplomatic presence, and provided assistance to persecuted minorities. India has also reached out to the Taliban, albeit cautiously, and participated in regional talks on Afghanistan's future. However, the challenge of radicalisation remains a critical issue that requires a unified international response, as emphasised by Prime Minister Modi at the G20 Extraordinary Leaders' Summit.

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