Austria's World Cup Qualification: Possible Or Pipe Dream?

The Austrian national football team has a long history of competing in the World Cup, though they have not qualified since 1998. Their best performance was in 1954 when they placed third, and they also achieved a notable fourth-place finish in 1934. However, their participation in 1938 was disrupted when Austria was annexed by Germany, leading to the dissolution of the Austrian Football Association and the integration of Austrian players into the German national team. After a period of fluctuating fortunes, the team has experienced a revival in recent years, successfully qualifying for the Euros in 2020 and 2024. With a passionate football fanbase, can Austria build on this momentum and qualify for the upcoming World Cup?

Austria's 2026 World Cup qualification chances

The qualification format has been revised and will feature twelve groups of four or five teams each. The winner of each group will directly qualify for the World Cup, while the second-placed teams will advance to the play-offs. Additionally, the four best-ranked group winners from the 2024-25 UEFA Nations League who finish outside the top two of their World Cup qualifying group will also advance to the play-offs.

Austria's chances of qualifying may change significantly depending on the outcome of certain matches. For example, if Serbia knocks out Denmark from second place in the final round of the Nations League, Austria's position in the rankings may be affected.

Austria ended the qualification campaign for the 2022 World Cup in fourth place in Group F with 16 points. However, they still had a chance to qualify for the play-offs in March as one of the two best group winners from the UEFA Nations League who did not finish in the top two of their qualifying section.

Looking ahead to 2026, Austria's qualification chances will depend on their performance in the group stage and their ranking in the UEFA Nations League. If they can finish as one of the twelve group winners or among the best second-placed teams, they will have a strong chance to qualify for the World Cup.

UEFA Nations League impact on World Cup qualification

The UEFA Nations League (UNL) has a significant impact on the World Cup qualification process, offering an alternative route to the World Cup for teams who may have fallen short in the direct qualification route. This is particularly important given the expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams, which has made the qualification process more intricate.

Firstly, the UNL provides an opportunity for teams to improve their seeding ahead of the World Cup qualification draw. The top two teams in each of the four groups of League A, the strongest division, advance to the quarterfinals of the UNL. The eight UNL quarterfinalists are then placed in Pot 1 of the World Cup draw, which also includes the four countries with the best FIFA World Ranking who are not already qualified. This seeding can provide a more favourable route to qualification for the World Cup.

Moreover, the UNL offers a second chance for teams who did not finish in the top two of their World Cup qualification groups. The four best-ranked teams from the previous edition of the UNL (2024-25), who did not finish first or second in their World Cup qualification groups, will progress to the World Cup qualification playoff round. In this playoff round, 16 teams, including the 12 second-placed teams from the World Cup qualification groups, will compete in a mini-knockout tournament, with the final four teams earning a spot at the World Cup.

The UNL also impacts the scheduling of World Cup qualifiers, as fixture slots need to be kept free for countries to play UNL playoffs and knockout ties. This has resulted in a staggered start to the qualification process, with groups of five beginning in March, while groups of four will not play any qualifiers until September.

The UEFA Nations League, therefore, has a substantial influence on the World Cup qualification process, providing teams with an alternative path to qualification and affecting the seeding and scheduling of the qualification rounds.

Austria's 2022 World Cup qualification results

Austria has played at seven World Cup finals tournaments, most recently in 1998. They also qualified for the tournament in 1938 but withdrew after the annexation of Austria by the Third Reich, with some of its team members joining the German team.

In the 2022 FIFA World Cup qualification tournament, Austria was placed in UEFA Group F, which also included Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Israel, Moldova, and Scotland. The teams played each other home-and-away in a round-robin format. Austria finished fourth in their group and advanced to the second round (play-offs). Denmark, the group winners, directly qualified for the World Cup finals, while Scotland, the runners-up, also advanced to the play-offs.

Austria's results in the 2022 World Cup qualification rounds are not readily available. However, it is known that there were 101 goals scored in 30 matches, for an average of 3.37 goals per match.

The 2026 World Cup qualification format

The 2026 World Cup will be hosted by 16 cities in three North American countries: Canada, Mexico, and the United States. It will be the first World Cup to include 48 teams, expanded from 32. The teams will be divided into 12 groups of four teams, with the top two from each group and the eight best third-placed teams advancing to a new round of 32.

The European Qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup are scheduled to begin in March 2025 and end with the playoffs in March 2026. The teams will be drawn into 12 groups of four and five teams, with traditional home-and-away matches and "all play all" principles retained. Teams drawn in groups of five will begin qualifying in March, while teams drawn in groups of four will start in September. All groups will conclude in November 2025.

The 12 group winners will qualify directly for the World Cup, and the four remaining spots will be determined by playoffs involving the 12 group runners-up. The 16 teams entering the playoffs will be drawn into four paths, each containing four teams. The playoff matches will consist of single-leg semifinals followed by single-leg finals within the same international window in March 2026.

Austria's 2026 World Cup qualification group

Austria's chances of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup could change significantly depending on the outcome of the final round of the Nations League. If Serbia knocks Denmark out of second place with a home win, Austria will not appear in pot one before the draw for the World Cup qualifying groups. This would affect Austria's chances of getting a more favourable route to the World Cup.

Austria ended the 2022 World Cup qualification campaign fourth in Group F with 16 points, after a 4-1 win over Moldova. They qualified for the play-offs as one of the two best group winners from the UEFA Nations League who did not finish in the top two of their qualifying section. However, they failed to advance to the World Cup finals.

The 2026 World Cup will be hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the United States, and will feature 48 teams. Each confederation is responsible for its own qualification tournament, with the process beginning on 7 September 2023 for the CONMEBOL zone. The UEFA qualification format was announced on 25 January 2023, with the qualification stage taking place from March to November 2025.

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