The Complex Geopolitics Of Afghanistan And Russia's Shared Border

Afghanistan and Russia do not share a border, but the two countries have a long history of conflict and complex geopolitical dynamics. Afghanistan borders several former Soviet Republics in Central Asia, including Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, which have close ties with Russia. The Soviet Union previously occupied Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, supporting the Afghan communist government against the mujahideen, but ultimately withdrew after facing a strong insurgency and suffering significant casualties. More recently, Russia has led large-scale military drills near the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, citing concerns about the potential intrusion of Islamist militants into former Soviet territories. While Afghanistan's northern neighbours have largely recognized the Taliban's leadership, Tajikistan has refused to do so, leading to rising tensions and a military buildup along their shared border.

The Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan in 1979

On the night of December 24, 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, sending in an estimated 30,000 troops. The invasion was an attempt to prop up the newly established pro-Soviet regime in Kabul, led by Hafizullah Amin. The Soviets had been providing military aid to Afghanistan since 1955, and by 1973, a third of active troops had trained on Soviet soil.

The invasion began with a massive military airlift into Kabul, involving around 280 transport aircraft and three divisions of almost 8,500 men each. Within a few days, the Soviets had secured Kabul, deploying a special assault unit against the Tajberg Palace. Elements of the Afghan army loyal to Amin put up a fierce but brief resistance. On December 27, Babrak Karmal, the exiled leader of the Marxist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), was installed as Afghanistan's new head of government, and Soviet ground forces entered the country from the north.

The Soviets were met with fierce resistance from resistance fighters, known as the Mujahideen, when they ventured out of their strongholds and into the countryside. The Mujahideen saw the atheist Soviets controlling Afghanistan as a defilement of Islam and their traditional culture. They employed guerrilla tactics, attacking and then disappearing into the mountains, causing great destruction without pitched battles.

The tide of the war turned in 1987 with the introduction of U.S. shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles, allowing the Mujahideen to shoot down Soviet planes and helicopters regularly. The war became a quagmire for the Soviet Union, and in 1988, the new Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev decided to withdraw. The last Soviet soldier crossed back into the Soviet Union on February 15, 1989.

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan had a profound long-term impact. Firstly, the Soviets never recovered from the public relations and financial losses, which significantly contributed to the fall of the Soviet empire in 1991. Secondly, the war created a breeding ground for terrorism and the rise of Osama bin Laden.

The Soviet Union's withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989

Afghanistan does share a border with Russia, albeit an indirect one. The two countries are separated by Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The Soviet-Afghan War was a protracted armed conflict fought in the Soviet-controlled Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) from 1979 to 1989. The war was a significant conflict of the Cold War, with extensive fighting between the DRA, the Soviet Union, and allied paramilitary groups against the Afghan mujahideen and their allied foreign fighters.

The Soviet Union's withdrawal from Afghanistan was completed on February 15, 1989, when the last Soviet military column occupying Afghanistan crossed into the Uzbek SSR. The withdrawal was led by the Soviet military officer Boris Gromov, and it brought an end to nearly a decade of fighting.

Reasons for Withdrawal

The decision to withdraw was influenced by several factors. Firstly, the war proved extraordinarily costly for the Soviet Union, with an estimated 15,000 Russian troops losing their lives and the economic cost running into billions of dollars. The intervention also strained relations between the Soviet Union and the United States.

Additionally, the Soviet leadership recognized the war as a drain on the Soviet economy, and the Russian people grew weary of a conflict that was often referred to as "Russia's Vietnam." The failure of the Soviet Union to install a sympathetic regime in Afghanistan and the increasing international isolation further contributed to the decision to withdraw.

Geneva Accords

The withdrawal was formalized through the Geneva Accords, signed in 1988 between Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Soviet Union, and the United States. The accords outlined the withdrawal of Soviet forces and mutual non-interference between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Impact of Withdrawal

The Soviet Union's withdrawal did not bring an end to the fighting in Afghanistan. The mujahideen eventually succeeded in establishing control over Afghanistan in 1992, leading to the First Afghan Civil War.

The withdrawal also had broader geopolitical implications. It was considered a significant factor contributing to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. The failure of the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, coupled with other concurrent events, demonstrated the volatility of the region for U.S. foreign policy.

Furthermore, the withdrawal revealed the limitations of Soviet military power and undermined the image of the Red Army as invincible. It created a cleavage between the party and the military, questioning the efficacy of using the military to maintain the USSR's overseas interests. The war also contributed to the emergence of new forms of political participation and a transformation in the press and media within the Soviet Union.

The Taliban's seizure of Afghanistan's borders with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

Afghanistan does not share a border with Russia. However, the Taliban's seizure of Afghanistan's borders with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan has raised concerns in Moscow.

In August 2021, the Taliban took control of Afghanistan's borders with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as part of their rapid offensive. This development was confirmed by Russia's defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, who also stated that the Taliban leaders had promised not to attack neighbouring countries.

The seizure of these borders has significant implications for the region, especially given the history of Soviet-Afghan relations. The Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, and the current situation has brought up memories of that conflict. Russia still operates a military base in Tajikistan and has close ties with Uzbekistan.

The Taliban's advance in northern Afghanistan has caused concern among the Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, which share borders with Afghanistan. The region has witnessed Taliban fighters swiftly overrun most of the rural parts of northern Afghanistan, establishing control over nearly all of the 1,500-mile border. This has led to a build-up of troops on both sides of the Tajik-Afghan border and increased tensions.

The Taliban's seizure of the borders has also led to a refugee crisis, with Afghan military personnel and civilians crossing into Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to seek safety. The Central Asian states are wary of allowing refugees in on a large scale due to the strain on their resources caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and existing poverty and unemployment issues.

Russia has reaffirmed its commitment to protect its allies in Central Asia and has conducted large-scale drills near the Tajik-Afghan border. At the same time, Russia has also sought to establish contacts with the Taliban and receive assurances that they will not allow Afghanistan to become a security threat to the region.

The situation remains fluid and unpredictable, with the Central Asian states adopting divergent approaches to the Taliban's presence on their borders. While some have negotiated with the Taliban, others have beefed up their security forces and considered expanding security cooperation with Russia.

The seizure of Afghanistan's borders with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan by the Taliban has significant geopolitical implications and has led to a complex and evolving dynamic in the region.

The threat of Islamist militants in former Soviet territory

Afghanistan does not share a border with Russia. However, the two countries do have a historical connection, and Russia has expressed concern about the threat of Islamist militants in former Soviet territories.

In the late 1970s and 1980s, the Soviet Union fought a war in Afghanistan, occupying the country for a decade. The Soviet Union supported the Afghan communist government against anti-communist Muslim guerrillas, known as the Mujahideen. Despite sending in troops and attempting to suppress the rebellion, the Soviets were defeated by the Mujahideen, leading to their eventual withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. This defeat was a major factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Following the Soviet withdrawal, Afghanistan continued to be a site of conflict and instability, with the Taliban seizing power in 1996. The Taliban imposed strict Islamic law and provided a safe haven for Islamist militant groups, including Al-Qaeda. The United States and its allies invaded Afghanistan in 2001, overthrowing the Taliban regime. However, the Taliban remained active and regained control of the country in 2021 as foreign forces withdrew.

Russia has expressed concern about the threat of Islamist militants in former Soviet territories, particularly in Central Asia. With the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, Russia fears that Islamist extremism and terrorism could spill over into neighbouring countries, including those in Central Asia that were once part of the Soviet Union, such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Russia maintains close ties with these countries and has pledged to assist them in the event of cross-border incursions.

Russia also has its own domestic concerns regarding Islamist militancy, particularly in the North Caucasus region, which has a significant Muslim population. There have been instances of terrorist attacks in Russia carried out by Islamist militants, and Russia has conducted military drills and taken other measures to counter this threat. Additionally, Russia has a large Muslim population, including migrants from Central Asia, who can be targeted for recruitment by extremist groups.

The threat of Islamist militants in former Soviet territories is a complex issue that involves not only Afghanistan and Russia but also other countries in the region. The potential for extremist groups to gain a foothold in Central Asia and the possibility of radicalization within Russia's own Muslim communities are significant concerns for both Russia and its neighbours.

The Taliban's talks with Russia in Moscow

Afghanistan and Russia do not share a border, but Russia has historically been involved in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and left in 1989 after losing thousands of troops.

Since then, Russia has tried to maintain its influence in the region, especially as the United States and its allies withdrew their troops from Afghanistan in 2021. Russia has hosted several rounds of Afghan peace talks in Moscow, known as the "Moscow Format Talks", which first took place in 2017.

On September 29, 2023, Russia hosted a Taliban delegation for the fifth round of the Moscow Format Talks. The discussions focused on counter-terrorism and narcotics, with representatives from China, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and other countries in attendance. The Taliban sought to assure its neighbours that its gains in Afghanistan did not threaten them, while Russia pledged to continue providing aid to Afghanistan independently and through the UN food program.

The talks also addressed the Taliban's human rights violations, particularly regarding women's rights and education. While the Taliban has not been granted formal recognition by the international community, Russia has made informal moves towards engagement, such as accrediting a Taliban diplomat in Moscow.

The Moscow Format Talks are significant as they reflect Russia's interest in maintaining influence in Central Asia and filling a gap left by the West in Afghanistan. However, substantive economic cooperation between Russia and the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is challenging, and Russia's bargaining power has been weakened by international sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine.

Frequently asked questions