The Afghan Conundrum: Reassessing Strategies In A Complex War

The war in Afghanistan has been America's longest war, and despite the US dedicating over a trillion dollars and thousands of troops to the conflict, it is still losing. The Taliban has been gaining more territory and political clout, and the Afghan government has been unable to establish the rule of law, provide security, or perform basic governance functions. The Taliban's perseverance and commitment, combined with the lack of training for Afghan forces, have contributed to the US's failure to stabilize Afghanistan. Additionally, Pakistan's support for the Taliban and the presence of Al Qaeda and other jihadist groups in the region pose significant challenges. With waning support for the war across the NATO alliance and rising casualties, the question of whether the US is losing in Afghanistan remains a pressing and complex issue.

The role of the Taliban in Afghanistan

The Taliban is a predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001. The group was formed in the early 1990s by Afghan mujahideen fighters who had resisted the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The Taliban's founding members also included students from Islamic schools (madrasas) in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Taliban's ideology is a combination of strict anti-modern Pashtun tribal ideology mixed with radicalized Deobandi interpretations of Islam. The group's doctrine focuses on strict obedience to the mullah (religious leader) and a concentration of power in the emir (supreme commanding officer or leader). The Taliban's goal is to establish a Taliban-controlled government in Afghanistan, implementing and enforcing Sharia law.

The Taliban first rose to power in 1996, capturing the capital city of Kabul and establishing the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The group's rule was only recognized by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates. The Taliban's harsh rule was characterized by strict interpretations of Islamic law, which resulted in the oppression of women and minorities, denial of food and aid to underserved citizens, and the destruction of cultural monuments.

The Taliban was removed from power in 2001 by U.S.-led coalition forces following the September 11 attacks. After being overthrown, the Taliban regrouped in Pakistan and began an insurgency against the U.S.-backed government in Kabul. The Taliban's resurgence was aided by support from Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence agency (ISI).

In 2021, the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan after U.S. troops withdrew from the country. The Taliban's return to power has been marked by a rollback of rights for women and girls, a crackdown on press freedoms, and the reestablishment of the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. The Taliban's current leader is Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada.

The impact of the Afghan government

The Afghan government has struggled to establish legitimacy and gain the trust of its citizens. This is due in part to the government's composition, which resembles an elite bargain rather than a representative democracy. Local officials hold significant power, and corruption and abuse of authority are widespread. The government's inability to address these issues has led to a loss of confidence, with many Afghans turning to local rulers, militias, or the Taliban for justice and security.

The failure to provide basic governance functions, such as establishing the rule of law, providing security, and ensuring economic stability, has further undermined the government's influence. The Taliban, in contrast, has offered a form of justice with less corruption, which has enticed locals to rely on them instead of the official regime.

Additionally, the Afghan government has faced challenges in maintaining control over the country. As of November 2016, the government controlled only 57% of Afghanistan, and this has continued to decline amid territorial gains by the Taliban. The government's military forces have also struggled, with low morale and high casualties, further eroding their ability to counter the Taliban's advances.

The international community has recognized the need to support the Afghan government in addressing these issues. However, despite efforts to provide financial and military assistance, the government has been unable to make significant progress. This has led to a deterioration of security and economic conditions, with Afghanistan facing challenges such as food insecurity, human rights violations, and a lack of access to basic services.

The influence of Pakistan

Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan has been significant, and its role in the region is complex and multifaceted. The country has historically had deep ties with the Taliban and has been accused of supporting the group as it battled the US-backed government in Kabul. Pakistan's intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was instrumental in the creation of the Taliban during the Afghan civil war in the 1990s and has provided the group with financial resources, training, weapons, logistical support, and safe havens.

Pakistan's objectives in supporting the Taliban include countering Indian influence in Afghanistan and reducing its perceived support for Pashtun and Baloch nationalists in Pakistan. Additionally, Pakistan seeks to prevent Afghan support for rebellions within Pakistan and to promote Islamist groups that do not fuel Pashtun nationalist sentiments. Pakistan's support for the Taliban also stems from its desire to gain leverage against its hostile neighbor, India, by establishing a secure Afghan frontier, which would allow Pakistan to concentrate its forces on the Indian border.

The porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has facilitated the movement of fighters and materiel, with Pakistani territory serving as a sanctuary for Taliban leaders and their families. Pakistan has also been accused of providing military support, including planning and executing major military operations, and soliciting funding and arranging training for Taliban fighters.

The impact of Pakistan's influence was evident in the Taliban's improved military capabilities during pivotal battles. The group's access to Pakistani training camps and advisers contributed to its tactical proficiency, particularly in the use of mobile warfare with 4x4 pickup trucks and improved command-and-control capabilities.

However, Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban is not without risks. The resurgence of the Deobandi Pakistani Taliban, a conglomerate of jihadi and sectarian groups seeking to overthrow the Pakistani state, poses a significant threat. Additionally, the strength of the Taliban could embolden radical Islamist groups within Pakistan and make the country more vulnerable to jihadists.

Despite these risks, Pakistani military leaders view the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as a net win, as it removes the US security umbrella they believe benefited India's expansion of influence in the region. Pakistan's influence over the Taliban remains considerable, and the country's proximity to landlocked Afghanistan continues to provide Pakistani leaders with leverage over the US and other international powers.

The future of US involvement

Secondly, the US and its allies need to provide more effective training to the Afghan military to better equip them to fight the Taliban. The Afghan military has struggled with low morale, high casualties, and a lack of loyalty to their officers and political leaders. Improving their capabilities and morale could be a key factor in countering the Taliban's gains.

Thirdly, addressing the role of Pakistan is essential. Pakistan has long supported the Taliban, providing financial and military assistance, and offering sanctuary to Taliban leaders. The US needs to exert pressure on Pakistan to end this support and take concrete action against the Taliban presence within its borders.

Finally, the US and its allies should consider providing more resources and troops to Afghanistan. While President Trump initially deployed additional troops, the general consensus is that a few thousand more troops are unlikely to bring a decisive victory. A larger force of 20,000 to 25,000 troops has been suggested as a more effective number to support Afghan allies and counter the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

The situation in Afghanistan is complex, and there is no easy solution. However, a combination of these approaches could help improve the chances of success for the US and its allies in Afghanistan.

The consequences of losing the peace

Security Deterioration and Anarchy: Without sustained international support, Afghanistan risks sliding back into a state of warlord-dominated anarchy. The Afghan government has struggled to exert control beyond Kabul, and the Taliban's resurgence has further undermined its authority. A security vacuum could lead to increased factionalism, violence, and a resurgence of terrorist groups like Al Qaeda.

Economic Devastation: The prospects for economic reconstruction in Afghanistan are already dim, and a loss of peace would make the situation worse. The country is one of the poorest in the world, lacking significant natural resources or infrastructure. Without international investment and aid, Afghanistan could face economic collapse, exacerbating poverty and humanitarian crises.

Erosion of US Credibility: A failure to maintain peace and stability in Afghanistan could deal a significant blow to America's credibility and standing in the world. It would be seen as a major defeat in the US-led war on terrorism and could embolden extremist groups globally.

Regional Destabilization: Afghanistan's instability has regional implications, particularly regarding the nuclear-armed Pakistan. The country has historically played a negative role, providing sanctuary and support to the Taliban and other extremist groups. A loss of peace in Afghanistan could lead to further meddling by regional powers, fueling proxy conflicts and exacerbating tensions.

Humanitarian Crisis and Refugee Crisis: Continued conflict and instability in Afghanistan would likely lead to a massive humanitarian crisis, with civilian casualties, displacement, malnutrition, and a breakdown of essential services. This, in turn, could trigger a significant refugee crisis, with potential consequences for Europe and the wider world, as seen in the Syrian civil war.

Setback for Women's Rights: The Taliban's harsh rule has historically resulted in severe restrictions on women's rights and access to education and employment. A loss of peace could lead to further setbacks, with devastating consequences for Afghan women and girls.

Frequently asked questions