The Complex Dynamic: Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

Afghanistan and Pakistan have a long and complex history, sharing a border, religion, and ethnic groups. While Pakistan has long been seen as sympathetic towards the Taliban, the relationship between the two is becoming more complex than ever. Tensions have started cropping up between the two countries, with Pakistan blaming Afghanistan for its security woes and Afghanistan refusing to recognise the Durand Line as the border between the two countries.

The Taliban's rise to power in Afghanistan has had an inspirational effect on those who seek to impose Sharia law in Pakistan. The Pakistani state now faces the challenge of blowback from the Taliban across the Durand Line, as religious fervor stirs among a large section of its population. The ideological connection that helped Pakistan control the Taliban has also paved the way for growing Islamist radicalization in Pakistan itself.

The souring of the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan was unexpected and startling for many. It remains to be seen how the two countries will navigate their differences and whether outside forces will play a role in mediating their disputes.

The Taliban's unwillingness to operate as Pakistan's proxies

The Taliban do not trust the Pakistani state, particularly its military, due to the latter's quick alignment with the US in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The Taliban saw the Pakistani state's decision to hand over Taliban leaders to the US as a betrayal, an unforgivable act in Afghanistan's tribal Pashtun culture.

The Taliban's relationship with Pakistan is further strained by the group's unwillingness to act against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban. The TTP is an anti-Pakistan insurgent group that seeks to establish a Taliban-style, Sharia-compliant state in Pakistan and has killed thousands of Pakistanis. The Taliban's support for the TTP has led to a significant increase in violence in Pakistan and strained relations between the two groups.

The Taliban's support for the TTP is driven by ideological alignment and historical bonds. The TTP has pledged allegiance to the Taliban, and the two groups share a history of collaboration, with many in the TTP having supported the Taliban during its inception. Additionally, the Taliban and TTP share a mutual ally in Al-Qaeda.

The Taliban's unwillingness to act as Pakistan's proxies has significant implications for the region. Pakistan has responded to the Taliban's support for the TTP with cross-border airstrikes, which have resulted in civilian casualties and increased anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan. The deteriorating relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan has raised concerns about regional stability and the potential for escalating violence.

The Durand Line dispute

The Durand Line is a 2,611-kilometre (1,622-mile) border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It was established in 1893 as the international border between the Emirate of Afghanistan and the Indian Empire by British diplomat Mortimer Durand and Emir of Afghanistan Abdur Rahman Khan. The Durand Line divided the Pashtun tribal lands in two, with half becoming part of British India and the other half remaining in Afghanistan.

The Durand Line has been a source of tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with Afghanistan refusing to recognise it as a legitimate border. The dispute over the Durand Line is not just about a border but also about ideologies, ethnicities, terror, and fundamentalism. Afghanistan has argued that the Durand Line was imposed on them by the British Empire and that it divides the Pashtun ethnic group. Pakistan, on the other hand, has defended the Durand Line by citing international law and treaties, arguing that it inherited the border from British India as a successor state.

Attempts by Pakistan to establish fences and border posts along the disputed border have been met with resistance from Afghanistan, leading to periodic skirmishes and tensions between the two countries' security personnel. The Durand Line has also been exploited by Afghanistan to incite Pashtun nationalism and by Pakistan to further its 'anti-terror' agenda.

The dispute over the Durand Line has had far-reaching consequences, influencing relations between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States during the Cold War. It has also impacted Pakistan's involvement in the War on Terror and the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Given the complex nature of the issue, a solution to the Afghanistan-Pakistan disagreement over the Durand Line remains elusive.

The Pakistani Taliban

The TTP is a separate group but a close ally of the Afghan Taliban. It has a history of assisting the Afghan Taliban in the 2001-2021 war, although the two groups have separate operations and command structures. The TTP has also been responsible for some of the worst terrorist attacks in Pakistan, including the 2014 Peshawar school massacre.

The TTP's stated objectives are the expulsion of Islamabad's influence in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and neighboring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in Pakistan, the implementation of a strict interpretation of sharia throughout Pakistan, and the expulsion of Coalition troops from Afghanistan. The group seeks to establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan and has repeatedly threatened to attack the US homeland.

The TTP has close ties to Al-Qaeda, sharing money and bomb-making expertise. The group has also been known to collaborate with other militant groups, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

In recent years, there has been an increase in violence perpetrated by the TTP, with the group ending a monthslong ceasefire with the Pakistani government in November 2022. This has raised fears among political candidates and led to the deployment of troops in sensitive constituencies to protect election rallies.

The Pashtun nationalism factor

Pashtun nationalism is an ideology that asserts the Pashtuns as a distinct nation that should unite to preserve its culture and homeland. In Afghanistan, Pashtun nationalists favour the idea of a "Greater Afghanistan", which includes Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and is ruled directly under Pashtun principles.

Pashtun nationalism has been a significant factor in the complex relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pashtuns, an ethnic group that makes up over 40% of Afghanistan's population, have historically believed that they are the rightful rulers of the country. This belief stems from the history of Pashtun dynasties ruling Afghanistan for most of the past 300 years. The Pashtuns' sense of nationalism was disrupted by foreign interventions, such as the Soviet invasion in 1979 and the American assault in 2001, which was aided by the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance.

The Durand Line, crafted by the British during the colonial era, has been a significant source of tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Afghanistan has consistently refused to recognise the Durand Line as the international border, arguing that it was intended only to define respective spheres of influence between British India and the old Afghan Kingdom. This dispute has fuelled Pashtun nationalism, as it effectively divides the Pashtun ethnic group between the two countries. Afghanistan's refusal to recognise the Durand Line as the border has been a persistent irritant in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and has contributed to a sense of distrust and enmity.

Pashtun nationalism has also been influenced by religious factors. The Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun movement, draws support from religious sentiments and a desire for the implementation of Sharia law. However, it is important to note that Pashtun nationalism has traditionally been based on ethnicity, tribal loyalties, and the commitment to Pashtunwali, the tribal code of ethics, rather than solely on religious beliefs.

Pakistan's relationship with Pashtun nationalism has been complex and ambivalent. On the one hand, Pakistan has sought to undermine Pashtun nationalism and promote pan-Islamism to maintain its territorial integrity and counter the threat of ethnic nationalism within its borders. On the other hand, Pakistan has also instrumentalised Pashtun nationalism in Afghanistan to pursue its foreign policy goals, particularly in countering Indian influence. Pakistan supported the Taliban, a Pashtun-dominated group, as a strategic asset in its efforts to gain influence in Afghanistan and counter Indian presence.

The rise of the Taliban and their interpretation of Pashtun nationalism, infused with religious extremism, has had far-reaching implications for the region. The Taliban's control of large swaths of rural, predominantly Pashtun areas in Afghanistan, and their ability to disrupt any political order that does not satisfy their goals, makes them a significant political force that cannot be ignored.

In conclusion, Pashtun nationalism, driven by historical, ethnic, and religious factors, has been a critical factor in shaping the dynamics between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The complex interplay of Pashtun nationalism, religious extremism, and geopolitical interests has contributed to the tense and often contentious relationship between these two countries.

The role of the ISI

The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is the largest and most well-known component of the Pakistani intelligence community. It is responsible for gathering, processing, and analyzing information relevant to Pakistan's national security. The ISI has been accused of supporting the Taliban and other militant groups, and of playing a role in terrorist attacks across India.

The ISI has a long history of involvement in Afghanistan, dating back to the Soviet-Afghan War in the 1980s when it worked closely with the CIA to train and fund the mujahideen. The ISI has provided strategic support and intelligence to the Taliban and has strong links with jihadist groups in the region. It has been accused of supporting Taliban forces and recruiting and training mujahideen to fight in Afghanistan and Kashmir.

The ISI has also been implicated in the assassination of major Afghan leaders, including Ahmad Shah Massoud and Abdul Haq. Massoud was killed by two Arab suicide bombers just days before the September 11 attacks in the United States. Haq was killed by the Taliban in October 2001, and it is believed that the ISI was involved in his capture.

The ISI has played a significant role in shaping the conflict in Afghanistan and has often been at odds with the United States and its allies. It has been accused of providing military support, training, and funding to the Taliban and other militant groups. The ISI has also been accused of aiding these organizations in eradicating their perceived enemies, including India, Russia, and the United States.

The ISI's involvement in Afghanistan has had far-reaching consequences and has contributed to the complex and tense relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Taliban's refusal to operate as Pakistan's proxies and their growing ties with India have further strained the relationship between the two countries.

The ISI's actions in Afghanistan have had a significant impact on the region and have contributed to the complex dynamics between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The ISI's support for militant groups and its involvement in assassinations and terrorist attacks have made it a controversial and influential player in the region.

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