Guatemala-Belize Border: Invasion Risk?

Guatemala and Belize have been locked in a territorial dispute since the 17th century. Guatemala has claimed Belizean territory for 150 years, ever since the colonial era. In 1945, Guatemala's revolutionary government realised there was a need for a road and port on its Atlantic coast. In 1946, Guatemala nullified the 1859 treaty with Britain, citing breach of contract. Guatemala laid claim on Belizean land in 1946, before Belize became an independent nation in 1981. Since then, there have been several attempts at negotiations between Guatemala and Belize, all ending without consensus. Despite the longstanding nature of the conflict, it is unlikely that Guatemala will invade Belize.

Guatemala's claim on Belize dates back to the 17th century

During the late 1600s and throughout the 1700s, Britain and Spain signed several treaties regarding territories in the Americas. Both nations agreed that the territory of modern-day Belize was under Spanish sovereignty, although British settlers could use the land in specific areas and for specific purposes. The area was never fully under British or Spanish rule at this time, and the British settlers continually expanded far past the boundaries set by the treaties.

In 1763, Spain, as part of the Treaty of Paris, gave these "Baymen" the right to cut logwood within a small area that remained subject to Spanish sovereignty. These rights were extended by treaty in 1783 and 1786, when the boundaries of what had become an official British settlement were agreed. Despite this, Spain continued to try to dislodge the settlers, with the last attempt occurring in 1798. Even after the collapse of the Spanish Empire in Central America and Mexico in 1821, Great Britain continued to regard Spain as the sovereign power.

In 1821, Central America gained independence from Spain and, in 1823, from Mexico. Central America then functioned as a federation until 1838, when it splintered into five separate republics, one of which was Guatemala. By this time, the Baymen had pushed the boundaries of their settlement far south of the limits agreed with Spain in 1786. In 1859, the Anglo-Guatemalan Treaty was ratified by both sides, with the country becoming known as the colony of British Honduras in 1862.

Despite the treaty, Guatemala continued to claim sovereignty over Belize, and tensions have flared up intermittently throughout the 20th century. In 1999, Guatemala shifted its stance back to inheriting claims from the Spanish Empire and the Federal Republic of Central America. Guatemala asserted that it had inherited Spain's 15th- and 18th-century claims on Belize and was owed more than half of Belize's land mass, from the Sibun River south. This claim amounts to roughly 53% of the country.

In 2008, Guatemala and Belize made a pact to have simultaneous referendums for their voters to send the issue to the International Court of Justice. The referendums passed in both countries by May 2019, and both countries are now settling the dispute at the International Court of Justice. The court is not expected to rule until 2025 at the earliest.

Guatemala recognised Belize's independence in 1991

In 1859, the Wyke-Aycinena Treaty was negotiated between Guatemala and Britain, which stated that Guatemala would recognise British sovereignty over the region and formed the modern-day boundary lines of Belize. However, the treaty included an article about building a mutually beneficial road from Guatemala to the Belizean coast, which was never built. Less than 10 years later, Guatemala renewed its claims on the area, using the broken promise of the road as justification for the 1859 treaty to be void.

In 1939, the Guatemalan government unilaterally abrogated the treaty, claiming that Britain was in breach of Article 7, and threatened to invade. Britain responded by establishing a military presence in Belize. Despite Belize gaining independence in 1981, the dispute remained unresolved, and Britain continued to keep troops in Belize as part of a defence guarantee.

In the early 1990s, Guatemala recognised Belize's independence, and diplomatic relations were established. In 1991, Guatemalan President Jorge Serrano Elas acknowledged that Belize was recognised internationally, recognised the right of the Belizean people to self-determination, and stated his willingness to settle the dispute, all without dropping Guatemala's territorial claim. In the same year, Belize's minister of foreign affairs, Said Musa, stated that preliminary talks on drafting a treaty had moved beyond territorial claims to questions of economic cooperation.

However, in 1999, Guatemala shifted its stance back to inheriting claims from the Spanish Empire and the Federal Republic of Central America, and the dispute continued. In 2008, both countries agreed to hold simultaneous referendums on sending the issue to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). As of 2022, both countries are now settling the dispute at the ICJ, with a ruling not expected until 2025 at the earliest.

Guatemala still includes Belize as part of its territory on maps

Guatemala's claim to Belizean territory goes back to the 17th century. The roots of the dispute lie in the fact that, while Belize was under British colonial rule, Britain and Spain signed several treaties regarding territories in the Americas. Both nations agreed that modern-day Belize was under Spanish sovereignty, although British settlers could use the land. When the Spanish Empire fell, Guatemala said that it had inherited Spain's sovereign rights over the territory.

In 1859, Guatemala and Britain negotiated the Wyke-Aycinena Treaty, which stated that Guatemala recognised British sovereignty over the region and formed the modern-day boundary lines of Belize. However, Guatemala has disputed its land boundary with Belize since its independence in the 19th century. The border dispute has been quieter since Belize's independence in 1981, and Guatemala recognised Belize's independence in the early 1990s. However, in 1999, Guatemala shifted its stance back to inheriting claims from the Spanish Empire and the Federal Republic of Central America.

In 2019, Belize held a referendum on whether the International Court of Justice (ICJ) should hear the case. Guatemala had already held its own vote in 2018, with 95.88% of voters supporting sending the claim to the ICJ. Despite the majority of voters in Guatemala being in favour of going to the ICJ, voter turnout was low at 25%. In Belize, the referendum was a more divisive issue, with the final result expected to be close. The Belize referendum was initially scheduled for April 2019 but was delayed due to legal challenges. It eventually took place in May 2019, with 55.4% of voters agreeing to allow the ICJ to resolve the dispute.

The Belize-Guatemala territorial dispute is one of Central America's most enduring conflicts

Over time, the British settlers pushed the boundaries of their settlement further south, beyond the limits agreed with Spain. In 1859, Britain and Guatemala signed the Wyke-Aycinena Treaty, which recognised British sovereignty over the area and formed the modern-day boundary lines of Belize. However, the treaty included an article about building a mutually beneficial road, which was never constructed. Guatemala used this as justification to renew its claims on the area less than a decade later.

Throughout the 20th century, tensions flared up intermittently between Guatemala and British Honduras (as Belize was then known). Britain stationed troops to secure the region against Guatemalan invasion, and negotiations took place over the following decades to try and resolve the dispute. Belize gained independence in 1981, and Guatemala recognised its independence in the early 1990s. However, Guatemala shifted its stance back to inheriting claims from the Spanish Empire and the Federal Republic of Central America in 1999, leading to both countries stationing troops at the border.

In an effort to finally resolve the dispute, Belize and Guatemala agreed in 2008 to hold simultaneous referendums to send the issue to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The referendums passed in both countries by 2019, and as of 2022, both nations have submitted their initial briefs to the ICJ. The court is not expected to rule until 2025 at the earliest.

Guatemala's 1945 revolutionary government realised the need for a road and port on its Atlantic coast

Guatemala's 1944–1954 revolutionary government, led by Juan José Arévalo and Jacobo Árbenz, implemented a series of social and economic reforms. One of the most significant challenges facing the country at the time was the lack of adequate transport infrastructure, particularly a road and port on its Atlantic coast.

When Arévalo took office in March 1945, internal transport in Guatemala was severely inadequate. To address this issue, Arévalo's government drafted a more liberal labor code and increased funding for education. Despite these efforts, transport infrastructure remained a pressing issue.

The need for improved transport links became even more acute following the passage of Decree 900, Árbenz's sweeping agrarian reform bill, in 1952. This bill expropriated uncultivated land from large landowners and redistributed it to landless agricultural laborers, many of whom were indigenous people. To support these newly established farms and facilitate the transport of agricultural goods, the revolutionary government recognized the urgent need for a road and port on the country's Atlantic coast.

However, these plans were never fully realized due to the US-backed military coup that toppled the Árbenz government in 1954, bringing an end to the Guatemalan Revolution. This coup installed the military dictatorship of Carlos Castillo Armas, which reversed many of the social and economic reforms enacted during the previous decade, including the agrarian reforms.

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