Bolivia's Opposition: What's Driving The Shift?

Bolivia's political landscape has been fraught with tension and upheaval in recent years, with a power struggle between the governing party, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), and the opposition coming to the fore. The MAS, led by former president Evo Morales, has been a dominant force in Bolivian politics, presiding over the country for 18 years, barring a brief hiatus between 2019 and 2020. However, a rift has emerged within the MAS, with supporters divided between Morales and the current president, Luis Arce. This division has led to protests and even street brawls between rival factions, indicating a growing discontent within the governing party. The opposition has capitalized on this discord, with right-wing leaders like Jeanine Anez, who served as interim president after Morales' resignation, taking a hardline stance against the MAS and its leaders. Anez pursued legal charges against Morales and his allies, and her interim government was marred by allegations of human rights violations and political interference in the justice system. The MAS, however, remains a force to be reckoned with, especially among the rural and indigenous populations, who have benefited from the party's commitment to equality, indigenous rights, and land reform. As the country moves towards the 2025 general election, the political climate in Bolivia remains volatile, with the future of the MAS and the country's democratic trajectory hanging in the balance.

The Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party is divided between support for Luis Arce and Evo Morales

Bolivia's Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party is currently divided between support for Luis Arce and Evo Morales, the former president who was forced to resign in 2019. Morales, a charismatic leftist, had been in power since 2006 when he became the South American country's first indigenous president. He fought for more rights for indigenous communities, less harsh restrictions on coca farmers, and more taxes on the wealthy. Morales also oversaw an "economic miracle" in Bolivia during the 2000s and early 2010s, slashing poverty and quadrupling GDP.

However, Morales' attempts to secure a fourth term as president in 2019 were controversial. Despite voters denying him that right in a 2016 referendum, Morales ran for re-election anyway, which sparked accusations of fraud and protests that eventually led to his resignation. Morales was replaced by an interim president, Jeanine Anez, a right-wing leader who was later sentenced to 10 years in prison for her role in the unrest, which the leftist government called a "coup."

In 2020, Luis Arce, the presidential candidate of Evo Morales' MAS party and his former finance minister, won the election. Arce was seen as a technocratic successor to Morales and had been the architect of Bolivia's economic transformation during Morales' presidency. However, today the two leaders are engaged in a bitter power struggle for control of the MAS and its nomination for the 2025 presidential election. The conflict has already stalled critical legislation, provoked costly demonstrations, and limited the government's ability to address economic issues, such as the U.S. dollar shortage.

While Arce currently appears to have the upper hand, with the courts ruling in his favor and a higher approval rating, the rivalry has raised concerns about the politicization and loss of independence of Bolivia's fragile institutions. The outcome of the conflict remains uncertain, but it is likely to have significant implications for the country's economy and stability.

Evo Morales' decision to run for a fourth term as president was controversial

Evo Morales's decision to run for a fourth term as president of Bolivia was highly controversial. Morales, who served as Bolivia's first indigenous president from 2006 to 2019, defied constitutional term limits by running for re-election. In 2016, voters rejected his proposal to amend the constitution to allow him to seek another five-year term. However, Morales later secured a court ruling that enabled him to run again, arguing that barring him from doing so would violate his human rights.

Morales' bid for an unprecedented fourth term sparked violent protests across the country and allegations of election fraud. Many believed that Morales was overstepping his mandate and undermining Bolivia's democratic order. The controversy culminated in Morales' resignation in 2019, just weeks after he was declared the winner of the 2019 election, as protests triggered by reports of irregularities in the vote count intensified.

Morales' decision to run for a fourth term was also influenced by his desire to continue his left-wing policies, including the nationalization of strategic resources, empowerment of marginalized indigenous groups, and opposition to U.S.-backed policies targeting coca production. His supporters argued that these gains for ordinary Bolivians would be at risk if the right-wing opposition took power. However, critics accused Morales of democratic backsliding and consolidating power, pointing to his attempts to abolish presidential term limits and his controversial court ruling as evidence.

Morales was declared the winner of the 2019 election but resigned amid allegations of fraud

Bolivia's former president, Evo Morales, resigned in November 2019, after being declared the winner of the 2019 election. Morales's win was contested by the opposition, who accused him of electoral fraud.

Morales was first elected in 2006 and was the first member of Bolivia's indigenous population to become president. He was in power for 13 years and nine months, the longest span in the country's history. Morales's presidency saw a commodities-fed economic boom in South America's poorest country. He also paved roads, sent Bolivia's first satellite into space, and curbed inflation.

In 2019, Morales ran for a fourth term, despite a 2016 referendum that ruled against lifting term limits. He was able to run because Bolivia's constitutional court disallowed such limits. Morales declared himself the outright winner of the election, even before official results indicated he had obtained just enough support to avoid a runoff with opposition leader and former president Carlos Mesa.

The opposition accused Morales of tampering with the results, pointing to an unexpected 24-hour gap in the reporting of results, followed by Morales narrowly securing the necessary votes to avoid a runoff election. This thrust the country into turmoil, with protests and violence breaking out in several cities. There were also reports of looting and burning of public property and some houses.

The Organization of American States (OAS) conducted an audit of the election and found "serious security flaws" and "clear manipulation" of the computer system used for the vote count. The OAS called for a new election with a new electoral tribunal.

Morales initially called for new elections, but he resigned on November 10, 2019, amid mounting pressure from the military and the public. His resignation came after Bolivia's military chief, Gen. Williams Kaliman, called on him to step down to restore stability to the country.

Morales portrayed his departure as the culmination of a "coup d'etat" and said he was resigning to bring peace to the country. However, his resignation did not immediately end the unrest. Opponents of Morales celebrated in the streets, but there were also reports of tensions, looting, and burning of property in La Paz and the neighbouring city of El Alto.

Morales' supporters claim he was forced to resign by the military and that his departure was a coup

Morales supporters claim he was forced to resign by the military and that his departure was a coup.

Morales himself has said he was the victim of a coup, and his supporters have continued to agitate on his behalf with marches and skirmishes in the streets of La Paz and nearby El Alto. On the day of Morales' resignation, video footage showed clashes on the streets of La Paz and some buildings on fire after the military called on Morales to step down.

Some of Morales' leftist allies in Latin America have also decried the turn of events as a "coup", including Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Argentine President-elect Alberto Fernandez. Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said his country would offer Morales asylum if he sought it, and Nicaragua's government issued a statement that decried the situation as a coup and a display of "fascist practices".

The head of Bolivia's military, General Williams Kaliman, asked Morales to resign to help restore peace and stability after weeks of protests over the vote. Kaliman added that the military was calling on the Bolivian people to refrain from violence and disorder.

However, critics of Morales have argued that his alleged abuse of power triggered a legitimate uprising in the streets. Morales had been in power for nearly 14 years and was seeking a fourth term, despite a 2016 referendum in which voters rejected a proposal to change constitutional term limits and let him run again. A top court that critics claimed was stacked in Morales' favour threw out the restrictions, paving the way for him to run again.

The 2019 election was also marred by allegations of fraud. Election officials abruptly stopped releasing results from a quick count, leading to accusations of fraud and sparking deadly protests. Days later, Morales declared victory, holding up election results showing he had narrowly edged opposition candidate Carlos Mesa. However, the final results gave Morales a lead of over 10 points, enough to avoid a second-round runoff.

The Organization of American States (OAS), which conducted an audit of the election, found serious irregularities and recommended that the election be annulled. Morales agreed to hold new elections, but protests continued and labour groups began calling on him to resign.

Morales' critics claim he attempted to conduct a giant fraud in the 2019 election

Critics of Evo Morales claim that he attempted to conduct a giant fraud in the 2019 election. Morales, who was Bolivia's first indigenous president, had been in power since 2006 and was seeking a fourth consecutive term, despite a 2016 referendum ruling against lifting term limits. In the 2019 election, Morales needed 40% of the votes and a 10-point margin of victory to avoid a second-round runoff against the main opposition candidate, Carlos Mesa.

As the votes were being counted, there was an unexplained day-long gap in the reporting of results. When the count resumed, there was a surge in Morales's votes. This raised suspicions among opposition leaders and international observers, who questioned why the government had shut down the reporting of results. The vice-president of Bolivia's electoral board resigned, stating that the decision to suspend the reporting of results had discredited the entire electoral process.

The Organization of American States (OAS) also weighed in, recommending a runoff even if Morales breached the 10-point margin. They cited concerns about the context and problematic issues in the electoral process. The OAS's head of the election observation team in Bolivia, Manuel González, stated that a second round was the best option.

Carlos Mesa, the main opposition candidate, accused Morales of trying to conduct "a giant fraud" and vowed that his party "would not recognize a fraudulent result". Mesa called for "permanent protests" and said he would present evidence of electoral fraud. These allegations of fraud sparked street violence, with anti-government protesters clashing with police and setting fire to electoral offices in several regional capital cities.

Morales, however, denied the accusations of fraud and instead accused the opposition leaders and foreign powers of attempting a coup against him. He claimed that the right wing had prepared the coup with international support. Morales's supporters also defended him, arguing that the accusations were part of a right-wing vendetta by the interim president who replaced him. They claimed that due process had not been followed in the allegations against Morales.

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