Belize Referendum: When Will It Be?

On May 8, 2019, Belize held a referendum on its territorial dispute with Guatemala, which could have brought an end to Central America's most enduring conflict. The referendum asked voters whether the territorial dispute with neighbouring Guatemala should be referred to the International Court of Justice. The vote was initially scheduled for April 10 but was delayed due to a legal challenge. The proposal was approved by 55% of voters, with 22 constituencies voting yes and nine voting no.

Guatemala's 2018 referendum

On Sunday, April 15, 2018, Guatemala held a referendum on its territorial dispute with Belize. Voters were asked whether they agreed to submit the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for a final settlement. The referendum was the result of a commitment signed in December 2008 between Guatemala and Belize, which stated that any legal claim by Guatemala against Belize relating to land, insular territories, and maritime areas should be submitted to the ICJ for a final settlement.

The Guatemalan Congress approved the agreement in August 2017, allowing the president to request the Supreme Electoral Tribunal to convene the referendum. Around 7.5 million people registered for the referendum, but members of the armed forces, people in prison, and Guatemalans living abroad were not allowed to vote.

The referendum question was: "Do you agree that any legal claim of Guatemala against Belize relating to land and insular territories and to any maritime areas pertaining to these territories should be submitted to the International Court of Justice for final settlement and that it determines finally the boundaries of the respective territories and areas of the parties?"

The outcome of the referendum was a yes vote, with Guatemala agreeing to take the territorial dispute with Belize to the ICJ. This was a significant step towards resolving the long-standing dispute between the two countries.

Following the Guatemalan referendum, Belize was expected to hold its own referendum within six months, as required by previous agreements. However, the Belizean government denied this, stating that the referendum would be held after a voter re-registration process to ensure a fair and accurate vote. The Belize referendum was eventually held on May 8, 2019, with voters approving the proposal to refer the territorial dispute to the ICJ.

Belize's 2019 referendum

Belize held a referendum on 8 May 2019 to decide whether to resolve a territorial dispute with neighbouring Guatemala through the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The referendum asked voters whether they agreed that any legal claim of Guatemala against Belize relating to land and insular territories and to any maritime areas pertaining to these territories should be submitted to the ICJ for final settlement.

The vote was initially scheduled for 10 April but was delayed by a legal challenge from the opposition People's United Party (PUP) on the grounds that it was based on the 2008 Special Agreement between Belize and Guatemala, which might lead to territorial changes that were inconsistent with Belize's constitution. The PUP claimed that an amendment to the constitution, requiring a two-thirds majority vote, was needed before the referendum could be held. The Belizean government disagreed, and the Supreme Court issued an injunction, delaying the referendum.

The government introduced new legislation that it believed would address the injunction, which was passed by the House of Representatives on 12 April 2019, and by the Senate on 15 April. However, the PUP objected to the new referendum bill, arguing that it was still based on the 2008 Special Agreement, which was the subject of the court proceedings under which the injunction was issued. Despite this, the referendum went ahead on 8 May, with the government actively campaigning for a "yes" vote.

The referendum was approved by 55% of voters, with a turnout of 65%. This result meant that Belize and Guatemala would resolve their dispute through the ICJ. The Guatemalan referendum on the same proposal had been held on 15 April 2018 and resulted in a "yes" vote by an overwhelming majority of 95-96% of the population, despite a low turnout of around 25-26%.

The roots of the Belize-Guatemala territorial dispute go back to the 17th century, when British settlers arrived on the coasts of Central America. Over time, the boundaries of the British settlement were expanded beyond what had been agreed with Spain, and in 1859, the Anglo-Guatemalan Treaty was signed, defining the borders of Belize. However, Guatemala later tried to declare the treaty null and void, and in 1939, it unilaterally abrogated the treaty, claiming that the UK had breached it. This led to a threat of invasion and the establishment of a British military presence.

Despite Belize's independence in 1981, the dispute remained unresolved, with Guatemala continuing to claim Belizean territory. In 2008, the two countries signed a Special Agreement to resolve the dispute via the ICJ, and the referendums in 2018 and 2019 were a result of this agreement. The ICJ's decision on the dispute is expected to take several years.

The Belize-Guatemala dispute

When the Spanish Empire fell, Guatemala asserted that it had inherited Spain's sovereign rights over the territory. Since its independence, Guatemala has claimed, in whole or in part, the territory of Belize. Guatemala and Britain negotiated the Wyke-Aycinena Treaty in 1859 regarding the disputed area. The treaty stated that Guatemala would recognise British sovereignty over the region and formed the modern-day boundary lines of Belize.

Throughout the 20th century, tensions flared up intermittently between Guatemala and British Honduras. In 1931, Guatemala and the UK exchanged a series of notes, confirming concrete markers implementing part of the 1859 border lines, showing that the treaty was being upheld by both parties. However, less than 10 years later, Guatemala renewed its claims on the area, using the broken promise of a road as justification for the 1859 treaty to be void. Britain stationed troops in British Honduras to secure the region against Guatemalan invasion, and many negotiations took place over the following decades to try to resolve the dispute.

Belize and the British pursued a path to independence, which eventually culminated in the United Nations passing a resolution to guarantee Belizean independence. In an attempt to settle the dispute before Belize's official independence in 1981, Guatemala, the UK, and Belize negotiated the Heads of Agreement treaty. However, the treaty was vehemently rejected by the Belizean people, causing a state of emergency.

The border dispute quietened after Belize's independence, with Guatemala eventually recognising Belize's independence in the early 1990s. However, in 1999, Guatemala shifted its stance back to inheriting claims from the Spanish Empire and the Federal Republic of Central America, and tensions rose once more. Guatemala and Belize stationed troops at the border, with a one-kilometre "adjacency zone" drawn on either side of the 1859 treaty borders.

In 2008, Guatemala and Belize made a pact to hold simultaneous referendums to decide whether to send the issue to the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The referendums were held in both countries by May 2019 and passed with a majority of the vote. As of June 2022, both countries are now settling the dispute at the ICJ, with both countries having submitted their initial briefs to the organisation. The court is not expected to rule until 2025 at the earliest.

The role of the International Court of Justice

On May 8, 2019, Belize held a referendum on whether the Guatemalan-Belizean territorial dispute should be submitted to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for a final settlement. The referendum asked voters whether the territorial dispute with neighbouring Guatemala should be referred to the ICJ.

The role of the ICJ in this context is to serve as the legal arbiter of the dispute between Belize and Guatemala. The ICJ is the primary judicial organ of the United Nations (UN) and is responsible for settling legal disputes between states. In the case of the Belizean-Guatemalan territorial dispute, the ICJ will review the relevant treaties, historical records, and legal arguments presented by both countries to make a ruling on the matter.

The ICJ's involvement in the dispute began with the 2008 Special Agreement between Belize and Guatemala, which committed both countries to holding simultaneous referendums to refer the issue to the ICJ. This agreement was the result of a decades-long territorial dispute between the two countries, dating back to the early 1600s when Britain and Spain signed several treaties regarding territories in the Americas. Over the centuries, the dispute has flared up intermittently, with both sides asserting their claims to the territory.

The ICJ's ruling on the Belizean-Guatemalan dispute is expected to be a crucial step towards a peaceful resolution of the long-lasting border dispute. The ICJ's decision will be legally binding on both countries and will provide a final settlement of the matter. The ICJ's involvement demonstrates a commitment to resolving the dispute through international law and diplomacy, rather than through military conflict or unilateral actions.

The ICJ's ruling is expected to take into account the historical context of the dispute, the relevant treaties and agreements, and the arguments presented by both countries. As of June 2022, both countries have submitted their initial briefs to the ICJ, and the court is not expected to rule until 2025 at the earliest. The ICJ's decision will have significant implications for the region and will hopefully bring an end to the decades-long dispute between Belize and Guatemala.

The 1859 treaty

The Belize-Guatemala dispute is one of the most enduring conflicts in Central America, with roots going back to the 17th century. In 1859, Britain and Guatemala signed the Anglo-Guatemalan Treaty, also known as the Aycinena-Wyke Treaty, which defined the borders of Belize from the Rio Hondo to Sarstoon. The treaty was ratified by both sides and included an article that stated that both parties would make their best efforts to build a road or "other means of communication" from Guatemala City to the Atlantic Coast.

Despite the treaty, issues arose when the road was not built within a few years. Guatemala blamed Britain for the lack of construction and argued that the treaty was a treaty of cession, meaning that Britain's violation of the agreement meant they were entitled to their land back. In 1863, an Additional Convention was signed, clarifying that the British government would contribute £50,000 towards the cost of the road. However, Guatemala failed to ratify this agreement by the agreed-upon date, and Britain refused to grant an extension, causing the Convention to lapse.

Despite the lapse, both sides continued to regard the 1859 treaty as valid and even made efforts to demarcate the shared boundaries over the next eighty years. However, in 1939, Guatemala unilaterally abrogated the treaty, claiming that the United Kingdom had breached Article 7. This led to a threat of invasion and the establishment of a British military presence in Belize. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute continued, with Belizean politicians becoming involved from 1961 onwards.

In 1946, Guatemala made an attempt to officially declare the 1859 treaty null and void. Britain suggested taking the matter to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for resolution, but Guatemala rejected this idea. For decades, negotiations between the two countries failed to reach a conclusion. Finally, in 2008, a significant development occurred with the signing of the Special Agreement, in which both countries agreed to resolve the dispute through the ICJ.

The implementation of the Special Agreement took time due to the irreversible nature of ICJ decisions, requiring constitutional obstacles to be overcome and the preparation of both electorates for the upcoming referendums. Guatemala held its referendum in April 2018, with a 25% turnout and a 95% majority voting in favour of taking the dispute to the ICJ. Belize, on the other hand, faced delays due to legal challenges and the need for voter re-registration to ensure a fair vote.

On May 8, 2019, Belizeans finally voted in their referendum, with 55% approving the proposal to refer the territorial dispute to the International Court of Justice. This referendum marked an important step towards resolving the long-standing conflict between Belize and Guatemala, with the potential to bring an end to centuries of disagreement over territorial and maritime claims.

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