Leslie Massey
Australia's population growth has been significantly influenced by net overseas migration, with the country experiencing a rapid increase in population over the last two decades. In 1997, Australia's population stood at 18.5 million, and by 2022, it had reached 26 million. This growth has exceeded previous forecasts, with the population projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. The COVID-19 pandemic and the easing of travel restrictions in 2021 also impacted population growth, with a decline to 0.1% in 2020-21 and a subsequent increase to 2.5% in 2022-23. The growth in population has been unevenly distributed, with capital cities, particularly Melbourne and Sydney, experiencing faster growth than regional areas. The median age of Australians has also increased, with a rise in life expectancy and a declining fertility rate contributing to an aging population.
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What You'll Learn
Population growth rate
Australia's population growth rate has been one of the highest in the developed world. The country's population growth averaged 1.4% per year from 30 June 1994 to 30 June 2024. The population growth rate is projected to be 1.6% in 2024–25, before gradually declining to 1.2% by 2034–35.
Several factors have influenced Australia's population growth rate. One significant factor is net overseas migration, which has been the main driver of population growth since the early 2000s. The easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions in late 2021 resulted in a quick increase in net overseas migration, with the return of temporary visa holders, including international students. Net overseas migration is expected to reach 340,000 in 2024–25 before stabilising from 2026–27.
Another factor influencing the population growth rate is the natural increase, which has been relatively steady between 1993–94 and 2023–24. Over the same period, the total fertility rate is projected to fall to a record low of 1.45 babies per woman in 2024–25 before gradually returning to a long-run rate of 1.62 by 2031–32. Additionally, Australians are living longer, with life expectancy at birth increasing from 58.8 to 85.4 years for females and 55.2 to 81.3 years for males between the start of the 20th century and 2021.
The population growth rate has also been impacted by urbanisation. Australia's population is concentrated in major cities, with close to three-quarters (73%) living in the major cities and 68% living in the eight capital cities. The share of the population living in capital cities has increased by 3% over the past 30 years, with overseas migrants tending to settle in urban areas. As a result, the percentage of the population living in urban areas has increased from 57.5% in 1911 to 90.3% in 2021.
The overseas-born proportion of the population has also increased, rising from 23% in 1901 to its highest proportion of 29% in 2021. In 2023, 31% of people in Australia were born overseas, and at 30 June 2024, Australia's population included 8.6 million people born outside the country (31.5%).
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Overseas migration
Australia's population growth has been significantly influenced by overseas migration, with the country experiencing a substantial increase in its overseas-born population over the years. In 2021, the overseas-born proportion of the population reached 29%, up from 23% in 1901, and 10% in 1947. This increase in overseas migration has been a key factor in Australia's population growth, contributing to 57% of population growth over the past 30 years, while natural increase contributed to 43%.
The impact of overseas migration on Australia's population growth was particularly notable in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic. During this period, net overseas migration was the primary driver of population growth, with international border restrictions in 2020 and 2021 causing a sharp decline. The easing of these restrictions in late 2021 resulted in a quick recovery in net overseas migration, contributing to a population growth rate of 2.5% in 2022-23 and 2.0% in 2023-24.
The increase in overseas migration has had a notable impact on Australia's population milestones. In July 2014, Australia's population reached 23.5 million, surpassing the Australian Bureau of Statistics' low-growth assumption for 2051. The country's population growth has consistently exceeded forecasts, with current patterns indicating a population of 38 million by 2051, significantly higher than previous predictions.
In summary, overseas migration has played a pivotal role in shaping Australia's population dynamics. The increasing proportion of overseas-born residents, coupled with the appeal of capital cities to migrants, has contributed significantly to the country's population growth and demographic distribution. Australia's population milestones have consistently surpassed expectations, highlighting the impact of migration policies and longevity increases on the nation's demographic landscape.
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Population distribution
Australia's population growth has been significantly influenced by net overseas migration, which has contributed to around 57% of population growth over the past 30 years. The country's population growth averaged 1.4% per year from 30 June 1994 to 30 June 2024, and it is projected to continue increasing. As of 2023, 31% of people in Australia were born overseas, with England, India, China, and New Zealand being the top countries of birth outside Australia. This proportion has increased by 8 percentage points over the last 30 years.
The population distribution in Australia is uneven, with a higher concentration of people living in urban areas compared to rural regions. In 2025, it is estimated that 86.51% of the population will reside in urban areas, while 13.49% will live in rural areas. This trend towards urbanisation has been consistent, with the urban population percentage increasing from 57.5% in 1911 to 90.3% in 2021. The capital cities have been growing faster than regional areas, with 68% of the population living in the eight capital cities in 2023-24, up from 65% three decades ago. Sydney has the largest Greater Capital City Statistical Area population, while Melbourne surpassed Sydney in the Significant Urban Area population in 2018.
The interstate migration patterns within Australia have resulted in population changes across states and territories. Between 1972 and 2021, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania, and the Northern Territory experienced a population decline due to interstate migration. In contrast, Queensland, Western Australia, and the Australian Capital Territory gained population through interstate migration during the same period.
The median age of the Australian population has been increasing over the years, rising from 33.4 years in 1994 to 38.3 years in 2024. The life expectancy at birth for females and males has also improved significantly since the 20th century, with females now expected to live up to 85.4 years and males up to 81.3 years. The percentage of the population aged 65 and over has increased from 12% to 17% between 1994 and 2024.
Australia's population growth has been influenced by various factors, including migration policy changes, longevity increases, and a solid birth rate. The country's population growth rate is projected to be 1.6% in 2024-25 before gradually declining to 1.2% by 2034-35, resulting in a projected population of 31.3 million by then. The population is expected to continue increasing, reaching 41.2 million by 2064-65.
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Life expectancy
Australia's population reached 20 million in 2007.
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Population projections
Australia's population growth is projected to be 1.6% in 2024–25, before gradually declining to 1.2% by 2034–35, when the population is expected to be 31.3 million. By 2064-65, the population is projected to be 41.2 million people. Population projections are not predictions or forecasts but are derived from holding assumed levels of births, deaths, and migration constant into the future.
Three projection series are presented in Australian Demographic Statistics for Australia population projections: high, medium, and low. The high series assumes a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.75 babies per woman, continued improvement in life expectancy at birth, and an increase in net overseas migration (NOM). The medium series assumes a steady TFR of 1.6 babies per woman, declining improvement in life expectancy, and an increase in NOM. The low series assumes a declining TFR of 1.45 babies per woman, declining improvement in life expectancy, and a decrease in NOM.
Indigenous Australian population projections also have high, medium, and low series. The high series assumes constant fertility rates, an annual 0.5% increase in paternity rates, a high increase in life expectancy at birth, and zero NOM. The medium series assumes a decrease in fertility rates, constant paternity rates, a medium increase in life expectancy, and zero NOM. The low series assumes a further decrease in fertility rates, a decrease in paternity rates, constant life expectancy, and zero NOM.
Australia's population growth has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and international border restrictions. In 2020-21, the population growth fell to a historical low of 0.1%. However, following the easing of restrictions and the return of overseas migration in late 2021, the population grew by 2.5% in 2022-23 and 2.0% in 2023-24. Net overseas migration is forecast to be 340,000 in 2024–25 before moderating and stabilising from 2026–27.
The total fertility rate is projected to fall to a record low of 1.45 babies per woman in 2024–25 before gradually returning to a long-run rate of 1.62 by 2031–32. Life expectancy at birth has increased significantly over the last century, with males and females 1.8 and 1.7 times more likely to reach their 65th birthday in 2021 than in 1901. Infant mortality has also decreased from 10.4% in 1901 to 0.3% in 2021.
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Frequently asked questions
Australia's population reached 20 million in 2005.
The current population of Australia is 26 million.
The projected population of Australia in 2071 is between 34.3 and 45.9 million.
The primary driver of Australia's population growth is net overseas migration, which has contributed to 57% of population growth over the past 30 years.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused Australia's population growth to fall to a historical low of 0.1% in 2020-21 due to international border restrictions. However, following the easing of restrictions and the return of overseas migration in late 2021, Australia's population grew by 2.5% in 2022-23 and 2.0% in 2023-24.
