Bolivia's Turbulent Times: Understanding Recent Developments

Bolivia has been in a state of political turmoil since 2019, when President Evo Morales was forced to resign amid allegations of election fraud. Morales, the country's first indigenous leader, had been in power since 2006 and was praised for his economic policies that prioritised the poor and indigenous. However, he was also accused of consolidating power and alienating a large part of society. His resignation sparked protests and clashes across the country, and the situation was further complicated by the involvement of the military, with some claiming that Morales was removed in a coup. The political chaos in Bolivia reflects the deepening left-right divisions across Latin America and the ongoing struggle between populist right-wing and left-wing leaders.

Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous leader, forced to leave the country

Bolivia's first indigenous leader, Evo Morales, was forced to leave the country in 2019 following a disputed election. Morales, a left-wing politician, had served as the country's president since 2006.

Morales's supporters—many of whom are indigenous and from poor communities—credit him with overseeing significant economic growth, reducing poverty, and increasing investment in schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. During his time in office, Morales also championed indigenous rights, anti-imperialism, and environmentalism.

However, Morales's critics argue that his policies did not always reflect his environmentalist and indigenous rights rhetoric, and that his defence of coca production contributed to illegal cocaine manufacturing. They also accuse him of democratic backsliding and refusing to give up power.

In 2019, Morales sought an unprecedented fourth term as president, despite a 2016 referendum in which voters decided he should not be allowed to do so. After a narrow victory in the October 2019 election, protests erupted across the country, with allegations of fraud from supporters of his opponent, Carlos Mesa. A monitoring group, the Organisation of American States, agreed there had been "manipulation" and called for the result to be cancelled.

Morales resigned and initially sought shelter in Mexico, but has spent most of his time in Argentina, where he was granted asylum. He returned to Bolivia in November 2020, a day after the inauguration of his former finance minister, Luis Arce, as the country's new left-wing president.

Morales accused of election fraud and manipulation

Bolivia's former president Evo Morales was accused of election fraud and manipulation in 2019. Morales, the country's first indigenous president, resigned in November 2019 under pressure from the police, the army, and violent protests over alleged voter fraud. International monitors expressed "deep concern" at sudden changes to the results that showed Morales closing in on outright victory in the first round.

Morales was first elected to lead Bolivia in 2005 and was praised for his efforts to reduce extreme poverty in the country. However, some claimed that after almost 14 years in power, he shouldn't have been allowed to run for president again. Despite this, he was permitted to stand following a decision from the country's Constitutional Court.

When the vote count showed a win for Morales, there were claims of corruption from supporters of his opponent, Carlos Mesa. Mesa accused Morales of conspiring with the country's Supreme Electoral Tribunal to tweak delayed results and avoid a runoff. He stated, "We are not going to recognise those results that are part of a shameful, consummated fraud, that is putting Bolivian society in a situation of unnecessary tension."

A monitoring group, the Organisation of American States (OAS), supported Mesa's claims, agreeing that there had been "manipulation" and calling for the result to be cancelled. They conducted an initial audit in late 2019 that found Bolivian officials had engaged in lies, manipulation, and forgery to ensure Morales's victory. The OAS maintained that there were secret servers that could have been used to alter the vote results.

However, researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) cast doubt on the claims of election fraud. John Curiel and Jack R Williams of MIT's Election Data and Science Lab wrote in the Washington Post that there was "no statistical evidence of fraud" and that the conclusions of the OAS audit "would appear deeply flawed". They argued that the change in voting trends was "entirely plausible" and could be explained by the fact that votes that come in later tend to favour certain candidates.

Protests and police support for opposition leader Luis Fernando Camacho

In 2019, police officers in Bolivia offered their support to opposition leader Luis Fernando Camacho during a protest against President Evo Morales in La Paz. Waving a national flag, Camacho stood alongside police officers who had joined the protesters.

Camacho, a right-wing politician, is the governor of Santa Cruz and a lawyer by profession. He has long been at odds with the leftist government of President Luis Arce and has sought a federal model of governance for Bolivia to avoid what he perceives as "abuses of power by the central government".

Camacho led some of the demonstrations demanding that Morales leave power in 2019, which gained him popularity with some parts of the electorate. Bolivia's state attorney stated that Camacho's arrest in 2022 was connected to the toppling of Morales in 2019. Camacho's supporters called his arrest a kidnapping, and road blockades quickly emerged in parts of Santa Cruz following the news.

In response to the protests, security forces used tear gas, and protesters set fire to the prosecutor's office. Demonstrators also assembled at Santa Cruz's Viru Viru airport in an attempt to prevent Camacho from being transported to La Paz.

Camacho has backed a series of protests in Santa Cruz, demanding that the national government proceed with a delayed census. A new census would likely give the wealthy farming region more tax revenues and seats in Congress. The government has accused Camacho of having the support of elites and economic groups seeking to take control of Santa Cruz.

Morales' resignation sparks further clashes and violence

Morales resignation sparks further clashes and violence

Following the resignation of Bolivia's President Evo Morales, the country has descended into further chaos and violent clashes. Morales supporters fought with police in La Paz and El Alto, with local media reporting at least 20 people injured. Morales, who has since fled to Mexico, accused the police of targeting peaceful protesters and urged Bolivians to resist the "dark powers" that forced him to resign.

Morales' departure has left a power vacuum, with increasing numbers from his Mas party resigning, and a need for retribution from both sides. His supporters have called this a coup, while his detractors call it the end of tyranny. The priority now is to choose an interim leader and hold new elections to bring a polarised Bolivia together and prevent further unrest and violence.

The day Morales resigned, Sunday, saw gangs roaming the highland capital, businesses attacked, and properties set on fire. The city of La Paz saw thousands of makeshift roadblocks, with residents manning them, and 15 buses were set alight. The houses of opposition politicians, as well as Morales' own home, were attacked. Both sides have called for an end to the violence.

Morales' resignation came after weeks of protests over a disputed election win, with the army urging him to step down. The Organization of American States (OAS) found clear manipulation of the vote, and called for the result to be annulled. Morales agreed to hold fresh elections but lost support from the army's chief, General Williams Kaliman, who urged him to resign. This, along with the desertion of several allies, triggered Morales' resignation.

Bolivia's political chaos and the international reaction

Bolivia, one of Latin America's poorest countries, has been in a state of political chaos since 2019, when allegations of election fraud triggered civil protests and eventually led to the resignation of President Evo Morales. The political crisis was sparked by a disputed election in which Morales was declared the winner, despite concerns over the removal of term limits that allowed him to run for a fourth term. The situation escalated as anti-government protesters, supported by a sizeable portion of the police force, clashed with pro-Morales groups, and the country's army chief called on Morales to step down.

Morales, the country's first indigenous leader, denied any wrongdoing but ultimately resigned, viewing the army's actions as a coup. His resignation left Bolivia leaderless, as the vice president, Senate president, and other high-ranking politicians also stepped down. The political vacuum was filled by Jeanine Áñez, the second vice president of the Senate, who assumed the role of interim president. However, her appointment was controversial, as it occurred during a brief legislative session boycotted by Morales's party, and she began a campaign against Morales's supporters, charging him with "terrorism and sedition."

The international reaction to the political crisis in Bolivia was mixed. Some countries, like the United States, Brazil, and Chile, supported the new elections and viewed Morales's resignation as a win for democracy. US President Donald Trump applauded the Bolivian people for "demanding freedom." Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right president of Brazil, agreed, stating that the word "coup" was used too often when the left lost. Chile's government expressed concern about the interrupted electoral process and called for a peaceful and democratic solution within the constitution.

On the other hand, some countries condemned what they saw as a coup d'état. Mexico's foreign minister, Marcelo Ebrard, offered Morales political asylum and echoed Morales's claim of a coup. Nicaragua also strongly condemned the situation, describing it as a coup against Morales. Cuba's foreign minister and president joined in the condemnation, and Bolivia broke off diplomatic ties with Cuba as a result of their statements. Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro urged global social and political groups to protest the Bolivian military's actions, while Argentina's outgoing incumbent government called for all sides to talk to restore peace and new elections.

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