Lexi Webster
Australia's population growth is influenced by two factors: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration. While natural increase has historically been the primary driver of population growth in Australia, the total fertility rate (TFR) or babies per woman has decreased over time, resulting in a reduced contribution to population growth. In recent years, net overseas migration has become the major contributor to population change in most states and territories, with Western Australia experiencing the fastest growth rate of 2.5% and Tasmania the slowest at 0.3%. As of September 2024, Australia's population was 27,309,396, with an annual growth rate of 1.8%. The current ten-year average annual growth rate is projected to decline from 1.4% to between 0.2% and 0.9% by 2071, with the population expected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Rate of Natural Increase | The birth rate minus the death rate, expressed as a percentage |
| Annual Natural Increase | 104,200 |
| Total Fertility Rate (TFR) | Decreasing over time |
| Population | 27,309,396 (as of 30 September 2024) |
| Annual Population Growth | 484,000 people (1.8%) |
| Quarterly Population Growth | 115,027 people (0.4%) |
| Life Expectancy at Birth | 81.1 years for males and 85.1 years for females in 2021-2023 |
| Infant Mortality Rate | Decreased by 47 deaths to 911 |
| Median Age | 38.5 years |
| Percentage of Population Born Outside Australia | 31.5% |
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What You'll Learn
Natural increase is a key driver of population growth
Historically, natural increase has been the main driver of Australia's population growth. However, while the number of births in Australia has generally increased as the population has grown, the number of babies per woman (known as the total fertility rate or TFR) has steadily decreased over time. This means that, although natural increase's contribution to population growth has fluctuated, as the fertility rate has decreased and the population has aged, natural increase has contributed less to population growth. As Australia's population has increased, so has the number of deaths. However, life expectancy continues to increase for both men and women, and age-adjusted mortality rates continue to decrease. This means that people are less likely to die at any given age than previous generations. The decrease in age-adjusted mortality has helped to offset the decline in fertility rates.
In the year ending 30 September 2024, Australia's population grew by 484,000 people (1.8%). The annual natural increase was 104,200, while net overseas migration was 379,800. Western Australia had the fastest growth rate (2.5%), while Tasmania had the slowest (0.3%). Net overseas migration was the major contributor to change in most states, except for the Northern Territory, where net interstate migration was the primary driver.
Australia's population growth is projected to continue, with the country's population in 2022 (26 million) expected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million people by 2071. The current ten-year average annual growth rate of 1.4% is projected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9%. The median age is also projected to increase, from 38.5 years to between 43.8 and 47.6 years.
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Fertility rates are decreasing
Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migration arrivals minus migration departures). Historically, natural increase has been the main driver of Australia's population growth. However, while the number of births in Australia has generally increased as the population has grown, the number of babies per woman (referred to as the total fertility rate or TFR) has steadily decreased over time.
Fertility rates in Australia are decreasing, and this is not a unique trend to the country. The global fertility rate has dropped over the past couple of decades, from 2.7 babies per woman in 2000 to 2.4 in 2023. In 2021, the global fertility rate was 2.4, while in Australia, it was 1.7. This is well below the "replacement rate" of 2.1 needed to sustain a country's population.
There are several interacting factors contributing to the decline in fertility rates in Australia. One of the most significant factors is modern fertility control measures and changing patterns of family formation. The increasing availability and use of effective contraception and family planning methods have enabled women to have more control over their reproductive health and the timing and number of pregnancies. Additionally, social and cultural factors, such as delayed childbearing due to education and career pursuits, the rising cost of living, and changing societal norms and personal beliefs around family and parenthood, also play a role in decreasing fertility rates.
The decline in fertility rates has both short-term and long-term economic implications. In the short term, falling fertility rates can have economic benefits, such as increased workforce participation and higher savings and wealth due to fewer dependent young people. However, in the long term, a sustained low fertility rate can impact the size and structure of the country's workforce, economic growth, and the funding of important services. Additionally, it may lead to a decrease in demand for large family homes, impacting one of Australia's significant economic sectors and sources of household wealth.
The Australian government has implemented various policies to encourage families to have more children, such as paid parental leave, childcare subsidies, and financial incentives like the "baby bonus". While these efforts have had limited success, they highlight the importance of addressing the declining fertility rate and its potential consequences for Australia's future.
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Life expectancy is increasing
Australia's population growth is influenced by natural increase, which is the difference between birth and death rates, and net overseas migration. While the number of births in Australia has generally increased alongside population growth, the total fertility rate (TFR) or babies per woman has decreased over time. This means that natural increase has contributed less to population growth as the population has aged and fertility rates have declined.
Despite this, Australia's population continues to grow, with an annual growth rate of 1.8% as of September 2024, resulting in a total population of 27,309,396 people. This growth is driven primarily by net overseas migration, which was 379,800, while the annual natural increase was 104,200 during the same period.
Life expectancy in Australia has been steadily increasing for both men and women. In 2021-2023, the life expectancy at birth was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 years for females, with the highest life expectancy in the Australian Capital Territory for males (81.7 years) and the Australian Capital Territory and Western Australia for females (85.7 years). Since the early 1900s, life expectancy at birth has increased by 26 years, contributing to the overall population growth.
The decrease in age-adjusted mortality rates has helped offset the decline in fertility rates. People in Australia are now less likely to die at any given age compared to previous generations. This trend, along with increasing life expectancy, contributes to the natural increase component of population growth.
While natural increase has historically been the primary driver of Australia's population growth, the contribution has fluctuated due to changing fertility rates and aging populations. As of 2024, net overseas migration has become the more significant factor in Australia's population growth, with more people migrating to Australia than being born as babies per woman continues to decrease.
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Mortality rates are decreasing
Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migration arrivals minus migration departures). While natural increase has historically been the main driver of Australia's population growth, the number of babies per woman (known as the total fertility rate or TFR) has steadily decreased over time.
Despite the decrease in fertility rates, mortality rates in Australia continue to decrease. This means that people are less likely to die at each stage of their life than previous generations. The decrease in age-adjusted mortality has helped to offset the decrease in fertility rates.
There were 183,131 deaths registered in Australia in 2023, a decrease of 7,808 deaths from 2022. The age-standardised mortality rate decreased to 513.0 deaths per 100,000 people, down from 547.6 the previous year. Deaths due to the top 10 leading causes, except for bowel cancer, also decreased. These included ischaemic heart disease, dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, and cerebrovascular disease. Decreases in the mortality rate were seen across all age groups for males and females.
For young people, the decrease in mortality rates is largely driven by falling mortality due to external causes of death, such as motor vehicle accidents. There has also been a convergence between male and female death rates due to these external causes. For adults over 45, a positive development has been the decreasing mortality inequality for coronary heart disease, a leading cause of death for this age group.
Life expectancy at birth in Australia has increased by 26 years since the early 1900s. As of 2021, the life expectancy at birth was 81.1 years for males and 85.1 years for females. However, there are still inequalities in access to healthcare across different regions in Australia, with no significant improvement from 2001 to 2018.
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Population growth varies across states and territories
Australia's population growth is influenced by natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration. As of September 2024, Australia's population was 27,309,396, with a quarterly growth of 0.4% and an annual growth of 1.8%. While natural increase has historically been the primary driver of population growth, the total fertility rate (TFR) has steadily declined over time. This means that natural increase's contribution to population growth has fluctuated and become less significant as the population has aged.
Capital cities in Australia experienced growth, with Melbourne recording the largest increase in population and Perth having the highest growth rate of 3.1%. The capitals collectively grew by 427,800 people (2.4%) between 2023 and 2024. This growth was attributed to overseas migration, natural increase, and internal migration. Regional Australia also saw an increase in population, growing by 113,800 people (1.3%).
The median age across Australia varies, with capital cities having a younger median age of 37.0 years compared to the national median age of 41.9 years. Darwin is the youngest capital city, with a median age of 34.6 years, while Adelaide is the oldest at 39.2 years. The median age in Australia is projected to increase over time, with estimates ranging from 43.8 to 47.6 years by 2071.
In summary, while natural increase has played a role in Australia's population growth, net overseas migration has been a significant contributor, especially in states like New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland. Population growth rates vary across states and territories, with Western Australia experiencing the fastest growth and Tasmania the slowest. Capital cities and regional areas have also seen population increases, and the median age across Australia is projected to rise in the coming decades.
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Frequently asked questions
The rate of natural increase in Australia is the birth rate minus the death rate, expressed as a percentage. In 2024, the annual growth of Australia's population was 484,000 people (1.8%).
The rate of natural increase is influenced by factors such as fertility rates and mortality rates. While the number of births in Australia has increased, the fertility rate (total fertility rate or TFR) has decreased over time. Additionally, age-adjusted mortality rates have decreased, meaning people are less likely to die at each age than previous generations.
Historically, the rate of natural increase has been the primary driver of Australia's population growth. However, as the population has aged and fertility rates have declined, natural increase has contributed less to population growth. Net overseas migration has become a significant factor in population change, particularly in states like New South Wales and Victoria.
Australia's population in 2022 was approximately 26 million. Projections estimate that by 2071, the population will reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million people. The ten-year average annual growth rate is expected to decrease from 1.4% to between 0.2% and 0.9%.
