Ruqayyah Snyder
Australia's population growth is influenced by factors such as birth rates, mortality rates, and migration. As of 2024, the population growth rate averaged 1.4% per year over the previous three decades, with net overseas migration being the primary driver. The population of Australia in 2022 was around 26 million, and it is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. The population growth rate is expected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9%. Australia's population density is low compared to other countries, and most Australians live near coastlines. The country's urbanization rate is high, with 86-89% of its population residing in urban areas.
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What You'll Learn
Population growth rate
Australia's population growth rate has been impacted by several factors, including birth rates, mortality rates, migration rates, and urbanization. From 1960 to 2023, the population of Australia experienced significant growth, increasing from 10.28 million to around 26 million people, with projections reaching between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. This growth rate of 159.4% over 63 years is slightly lower than the worldwide population increase of 166% during the same period.
The highest annual increase in population was recorded in 1971, with a growth rate of 3.44%, while the smallest increase was in 2021, with only a 0.14% growth rate. The average annual growth rate over the past three decades (from June 1994 to June 2024) has been approximately 1.4%. This growth rate is expected to decline further, with projections ranging from 0.2% to 0.9% by 2071.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted Australia's population growth rate. In 2020-21, international border restrictions led to a historical low population growth rate of 0.1%. Following the easing of these restrictions and the resumption of overseas migration in late 2021, Australia's population growth rebounded to 2.5% in 2022-23 and 2.0% in 2023-24.
Net overseas migration has been the primary driver of Australia's population growth in recent years, contributing to 57% of population growth over the past 30 years. During the pandemic, however, net overseas migration decreased due to border restrictions, resulting in a net outflow of migrants in 2020-21 for the first time since World War II. In contrast, natural increase (births minus deaths) has been relatively steady, contributing to 43% of population growth over the same 30-year period.
The urbanization rate in Australia is also noteworthy, with around 86%-89% of its population residing in urban areas, making it one of the most urbanized countries globally. This trend is expected to continue, with an annual growth rate of 2.6%. Additionally, the median age in Australia is projected to increase, with estimates ranging from 43.8 to 47.6 years by 2071.
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Population density
Oceania is the smallest continent in terms of land area and the second least populous after Antarctica. It comprises 5.77% of the world's land area and 0.58% of the world's population. The population density in Oceania is 5 per square kilometre or 14 people per square mile. The total land area is 8,486,460 square kilometres or 3,276,639 square miles. 66.2% of the population is urban, with a median age of 33.4 years.
The definition of Oceania varies and can include Australasia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and numerous Pacific Islands. Using the most common definition of Oceania, which excludes Indonesia and the Philippines, the population is around 38.82 million. The four largest cities in Oceania under this definition are all in Australia: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth.
Australia is the largest and most populous country in Oceania. The population density in Australia is 4 per square kilometre or 9 people per square mile. The total land area is 7,682,300 square kilometres or 2,966,151 square miles. 86.51% of the population is urban, with a median age of 38.3 years. Australia's population in 2022 was 26 million, with a projected population of between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071. The current annual growth rate is 1.4%, which is projected to decline to between 0.2% and 0.9%. The population grew by 445,900 people (1.7%) in the year ending 31 December 2024.
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Urbanisation
Australia's population is growing, with an annual growth rate of 1.7% in 2024, and a ten-year average annual growth rate of 1.4%. This growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration. In 2024, net overseas migration was 340,800, while the annual natural increase was 105,200. Australia's population in 2022 was 26 million, and it is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071.
Urbanization has played a significant role in Australia's population growth. Historically, Australia has been one of the most urbanized countries in the world, with an urbanization rate of over 80% since the 1960s. In 2023, the urbanization rate reached 86.62%, the highest in its history. This means that 86.62% of the population lives in urban areas, making Australia one of the most urbanized countries globally.
The high rates of immigration since the 20th century have contributed to this urbanization. Immigrants have tended to settle in coastal, urban areas, which has resulted in the expansion and development of these regions. The capital cities, in particular, have been a focus of internal migration, although they did see a net loss of 11,800 people from internal migration in one quarter.
The high urbanization rate in Australia is notable given that it is among the largest countries in the world. As a result, despite its large landmass, Australia has a very low population density. In 2025, the population density was 4 people per square kilometer (9 people per square mile).
The urbanization in Australia has led to a concentration of the population in certain regions, with urban areas making up a significant proportion of the total population. This has resulted in a relatively low population density, given the country's size, and has had implications for infrastructure development and resource allocation.
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Indigenous population
Australia's Indigenous population is made up of Aboriginal Australians and Torres Strait Islanders. The Indigenous population is extremely diverse, with different cultures, religions, and origins. On the Australian mainland, the original population consisted of Aboriginal Australians and Torres Strait Islanders (from islands to the northeast of the mainland). Meanwhile, the surrounding islands were predominantly inhabited by Papuan, Polynesian, and Melanesian peoples.
Genetic studies have suggested that Aboriginal Australians largely descended from an Eastern Eurasian population wave during the Initial Upper Paleolithic. They are most closely related to other Oceanians, especially Melanesians. The Aboriginal Australians also show affinity to Ancient Ancestral South Indians, the Andamanese people, and East Asian peoples. Phylogenetic data suggests that an early initial eastern non-African (ENA) or East-Eurasian metapopulation trifurcated and gave rise to Oceanians (including Australasians), the Ancient Ancestral South Indians, Andamanese, and the East/Southeast Asian lineage including the ancestors of Native Americans.
The Indigenous population has been decimated by immigration and colonization over the last two centuries. People of European descent, particularly the British, now make up the largest proportion of Australia's population. The Aboriginal Australians now constitute less than 2% of the population. However, it is important to note that the Tasmanian Indigenous population, once thought to have died out, is estimated to be between 6,000 and 23,000, depending on the counting method.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) estimates that as of June 30, 2021, there were 984,000 First Nations people living in Australia, representing 3.8% of the total population. This was an increase of 23% (185,600 people) from the June 30, 2016, estimate of 798,400. The proportion of First Nations people has increased with each Census since 2001, rising from 2.4% in 2001 to 3.8% in 2021. The 2021 Census counted 812,000 people who identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander, representing 3.2% of the population. However, due to a net undercount of 17.4%, the estimated Indigenous population is around 952,000 to 1,000,000, or just under 4% of the total population.
The growth in the Indigenous population is attributed to various factors, including higher fertility rates among Indigenous women, migration, variation in census coverage and response rates, and changes in self-identification between census years. The First Nations population has a relatively young age structure, with larger proportions of people aged 29 and under compared to the non-Indigenous population. As of June 30, 2021, one-third (34%) of the First Nations population was under 15, compared to 17% in the non-Indigenous population. The median age of First Nations people has increased from 21 in 2011 to 24 in 2021.
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Fertility rate
Australia's population growth is comprised of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (migration arrivals minus migration departures). The fertility rate is a significant factor in population growth, representing the number of children a woman would have, on average, by the end of her childbearing years. This is also known as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR).
In 2022, Australia's fertility rate was 1.63 births per woman, a 4.12% decline from 2021. This is the lowest value among the countries in Oceania, with an average of 2.89 births per woman in 2022. The Solomon Islands had the highest fertility rate in the region, with 3.92 births per woman.
The low fertility rate in Australia is reflected in the country's median age, which is projected to increase from 38.5 years in 2022 to between 43.8 and 47.6 years by 2071. As of December 2024, Australia's population was 27,400,013, with an annual growth rate of 1.7%. The population is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071, indicating a decline in the annual growth rate to between 0.2% and 0.9%.
The Australian Capital Territory recorded a net overcount of -0.6%, while the Northern Territory had the highest net undercount of 6.0% in the Census data. Capital cities experienced a net loss of 11,800 people due to internal migration, the largest quarterly net loss recorded. These factors, along with the fertility rate, contribute to the varying population growth rates across Australia.
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Frequently asked questions
Australia's population was 27.2 million as of June 2024 and 27.4 million as of December 2024. It is projected to reach between 34.3 and 45.9 million by 2071.
Australia's population growth rate averaged 1.4% per year from 1994 to 2024. The growth rate was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, falling to a historic low of 0.1% in 2020-21. In 2022-23, the population grew by 2.5%, and in 2023-24, it grew by 2.0%.
Population growth in Australia is influenced by natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration. Net overseas migration was the primary driver of growth before the COVID-19 pandemic, but since 2005-06, it has contributed more to annual population growth than natural increase.
Australia is one of the most urbanized countries in the world, with around 86-89% of its population living in urban areas. This trend is expected to continue, with urbanization growing by 2.6% annually.
Australia's population of approximately 27 million people is equivalent to 0.33% of the total world population. It ranks 55th in terms of population among countries and dependencies.
