Bolivia's Biggest Challenge: The Post-Evo Political Landscape

Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, was in power from 2006 to 2019. During this time, Bolivia saw significant economic growth and political stability, but was also accused of democratic backsliding and described as a competitive authoritarian regime.

Morales' supporters point to his championing of indigenous rights, anti-imperialism, and environmentalism, and credit him with overseeing significant economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as increased investment in schools, hospitals, and infrastructure.

However, critics argue that his policies did not always reflect his environmentalist and indigenous rights rhetoric, and that his defence of coca production contributed to illegal cocaine production.

In 2019, Morales ran for an unconstitutional third consecutive term. He won the election, but allegations of fraud triggered mass protests. Under pressure from the army, Morales resigned and fled the country.

In 2020, Morales returned to Bolivia after his chosen successor, Luis Arce, was elected. However, the two men are now battling for the future of the Movement for Socialism (MAS), the country's dominant political party, ahead of the 2025 presidential election.

The political fight has paralyzed the government's efforts to deal with the deepening economic crisis, and analysts warn that the social unrest could explode in Bolivia.

Evo Morales' legacy

Evo Morales, Bolivia's first indigenous president, is a controversial figure in Bolivian politics. Morales served as the 65th president of Bolivia from 2006 to 2019, and his legacy is a mixed bag of successes and failures.

Morales is widely regarded as a champion of indigenous rights, anti-imperialism, and environmentalism. During his time in office, he oversaw significant economic growth and poverty reduction, increased investment in social infrastructure, and reduced Bolivia's dependence on organisations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He also prioritised the implementation of left-wing policies, focusing on the legal protections and socioeconomic conditions of Bolivia's previously marginalised indigenous population.

However, critics point to democratic backsliding during his tenure, arguing that his policies did not always reflect his environmentalist and indigenous rights rhetoric, and that his defence of coca production contributed to illegal cocaine manufacturing.

Morales' legacy is also marred by allegations of democratic backsliding and creating a "narco-state". He was accused of undermining the independence of the judiciary and was widely criticised for running for an unconstitutional third term in 2019, which sparked mass protests and eventually led to his resignation and exile.

Today, Bolivia remains divided over Morales' legacy, with some praising his efforts to improve the lives of indigenous Bolivians and reduce poverty, while others argue that he undermined democratic institutions and caused political instability.

Bolivia's economic crisis

The political rift between Arce and Morales began in 2019 when Morales ran for an unconstitutional third term. He won the election, but allegations of fraud sparked mass protests, and Morales resigned and fled the country. After fresh elections in 2020, Morales hand-picked Arce, his former finance minister, as the MAS candidate. However, both men wanted to be the MAS candidate in the 2025 election, causing a split in the party.

Arce accused Morales of endangering people's lives for his personal ambitions, while Morales's supporters presented the government with a list of demands, including Morales' rejection of any measure to disqualify him from the 2025 election. The conflict has escalated into violent protests, with around 40 people injured in clashes.

The economic crisis has been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, which hit Bolivia hard. Arce's administration has struggled to deal with the economic decline, and his reputation for sound economic management has suffered. Bolivia's financial situation has been further complicated by a lack of investment and the country's inability to extract its vast lithium deposits due to legislative gridlock.

The political fight has led to a sense of crisis, with some analysts warning that social unrest could explode in the historically turbulent nation.

The Movement for Socialism party

The Movement for Socialism (MAS) is a Bolivian political party that has been led by Evo Morales since 1998. MAS is an "indigenous-based political party that calls for the nationalization of industry, legalization of the coca leaf, and fairer distribution of national resources."

MAS was formed in 1995 as a "political instrument" of the sindicato social movement, which included miners, peasants, and indigenous peoples. Morales was chosen as the leader of MAS in 1998.

In 1999, MAS secured 79 municipal council seats and 10 mayoral positions, gaining 3.27% of the national vote. In the 2002 presidential election, MAS gained 20.94% of the national vote, becoming Bolivia's second-largest party.

In the 2005 presidential election, Morales won with 53.7% of the vote. MAS's electoral campaign was based on Salvador Allende's successful campaign in the 1970 Chilean presidential election. Morales's victory was identified as part of the broader regional "pink tide", a wave of left-leaning Latin American governments.

In 2009, a new constitution changed the country's official name to the Plurinational State of Bolivia to reflect the multi-ethnic nature of the country and the strengthened rights of Bolivia's indigenous peoples.

In the 2014 general election, Morales won a third term as president. In 2019, Morales resigned and fled the country following allegations of fraud in the election. However, he returned to Bolivia in 2020 after fresh elections were held and MAS swept back into power.

MAS is currently embroiled in a bitter political fight between Morales and Luis Arce, his former finance minister and current president of Bolivia. Both men are battling for the future of MAS ahead of the presidential election in 2025. The rift in the party has paralyzed the government's efforts to address the country's economic crisis.

The 2019 election

The opposition claimed that this interruption was used to manipulate the results, and protests erupted with counter-protesters trying to stop Morales' supporters with rocks and tear gas. The situation escalated, resulting in around 36 deaths and eventually leading to Morales' resignation and exile.

The Organization of American States (OAS) released a preliminary report that concluded there were irregularities in the election, but these findings were disputed. The New York Times later reported that the OAS analysis was flawed and contributed to the chain of events that led to Morales' resignation.

The 2025 election

Morales, Bolivia's first Indigenous president, is seeking to return to power after he resigned and fled the country in 2019 amid allegations of fraud in the election that saw him win an unconstitutional third term. His supporters have been marching towards La Paz, clashing with counter-protesters, and the former president has threatened to unleash mass unrest if he is disqualified from running in 2025.

Arce, Morales' former finance minister, has accused Morales of endangering people's lives for his personal ambitions. Arce's reputation for sound economic management has taken a hit in recent months, with the country facing fuel shortages, a widening gap between the official and black-market exchange rates, and rising inflation. However, Arce still controls the official leadership of the social organisations that form the backbone of MAS, and it remains to be seen who will come out on top.

Morales has a hard core of support among the working class, particularly coca growers in Cochabamba, while Arce lacks a popular base of his own. Nevertheless, Arce has the state, and the opposition is fractured, with dozens of its politicians behind bars. Bolivia is at a crossroads, and the outcome of the 2025 election will determine the country's path.

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