Lyla Lindsey
Australia's cattle herd size has been a topic of interest in recent years, with some sources claiming that estimates of the national herd size may have been historically under-reported. The average herd size in Australia can vary depending on various factors such as seasonal conditions, labour issues, and the methodology used for calculations. In 2023, the Australian cattle herd was estimated to be around 28.8 million head, with projections reaching 29.6 million by 2025. However, it's important to note that these numbers may not include smaller farms, and the true herd size could be even larger, with some studies suggesting a range of 30 to 40 million cattle over the past few decades.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Average herd size in Australia | Between 30 million and 40 million cattle |
| Previous estimates | 25-29 million |
| Year with the lowest level of cattle head since the 1990s | 2020 (24.6 million) |
| Cattle head in 2021 | 24.4 million |
| Cattle head in 2022 | 28.8 million |
| Cattle head in 2023 | 28.89 million |
| Expected cattle head by 2025 | 29.6 million |
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What You'll Learn
Cattle herd numbers in 2023
According to Meat and Livestock Australia's (MLA) industry projections, the Australian cattle herd is expected to reach 28.8 million head in 2023, an increase of 1.1 million or 4.5% year on year. This growth is attributed to strong female reproductive performance, genetic improvements, and sound on-farm management. The availability of skilled and unskilled workers to manage the increased supply of cattle in 2023 will be a significant factor affecting the industry. The processing sector's ability to process cattle will determine production levels and exports.
The Australian cattle industry is optimistic about its domestic and international outlook, as it continues to deliver high-quality beef in larger volumes. This optimism comes despite years of drought and flooding, which caused a reduction in herd size in 2020 to 24.6 million head, the lowest level since the 1990s. The country has since experienced consecutive years of La Niña, contributing to devastating floods.
The large herd size in Australia, coupled with the US's reduced herd numbers due to drought, will impact global supply dynamics. The US is expected to flip from a net exporter to a net importer, improving Australia's market share in key export markets such as Japan, South Korea, and the US. Cattle prices are expected to return to long-term averages, and the strong supply of cattle is forecast to continue for the next two years.
In contrast to the US, Australia's cattle industry is expected to grow in 2023. However, labour issues in the processing sector could derail this growth. The MLA has acknowledged labour concerns and forecasts that slaughter could reach 6 million head if these issues are not addressed.
While the exact average herd size in Australia may be difficult to pinpoint due to varying estimates and data collection methods, it is clear that the country's cattle industry is thriving and positioned for growth in 2023.
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Industry confidence and optimism
In 2023, Australia's cattle herd was projected to reach its largest size since 2014, signalling a positive outlook for the industry. The strong supply of cattle was expected to continue for a further two years, with the herd projected to reach 28.8 million head, an increase of 1.1 million or a 4.5% year-on-year growth. This growth is attributed to strong female reproductive performance, genetic improvements, and sound on-farm management.
The Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS) conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) in 2024 further reinforces the industry's optimism. The survey, which covers producer sentiment, intentions, herd profile, breed demographics, sales channels, and expected sales, found that positive industry sentiment had increased to 47%, compared to 11% in the previous year and 34% in April 2024. This survey also revealed that producers intended to increase their herd sizes, with 45% indicating they would do so. The top three methods to achieve this growth include retaining more heifers than usual (53%), purchasing more steers (19%), and buying more breeding heifers (13%).
The MLA's own herd size assessments and industry projections contribute to the industry's confidence. Their models utilise various data inputs, including slaughter, herd, and production figures, export data, surveys, and farm performance information. However, it is important to note that MLA's projections have had an accuracy of 3% for production and 2% for slaughter over the past five years.
Looking forward, the national herd is expected to continue growing. By 2025, it is projected to reach its highest level since the 1970s at 29.6 million head. This growth is expected to be driven by positive sentiment and better conditions in states like Queensland and New South Wales. However, input prices, the cost of production, and labour availability will be critical factors in maintaining this positive trajectory.
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Labour issues
The processing sector is facing a shortage of labour, which could affect its ability to process the growing number of cattle and, in turn, impact production levels and exports. This issue is expected to persist in the short term, and if not addressed, may result in lower slaughter figures than anticipated. The official projection for total cattle slaughter is expected to climb above 7 million head in 2023, but labour shortages could keep the number closer to 6 million.
The labour concerns in the processing sector are not new. The Stock Turn-Off Ratio (STR), which measures the number of cattle processed and exported relative to herd size, reached its lowest point in 2022 at 24%, indicating that the industry was not efficiently turning over its cattle stocks. This inefficiency, coupled with rising herd numbers, points to a potential labour crisis if steps are not taken to address it.
The Australian cattle industry is also experiencing a transition phase, with herd numbers recovering from the lows of the 2019-2020 drought. This recovery is due to favourable seasonal conditions, improved female retention, and higher reproductive rates. However, labour issues in the processing sector could derail the positive momentum and impact the industry's ability to capitalise on changing global supply dynamics.
To address these labour challenges, the industry may need to explore innovative solutions, such as adopting precision technologies to enhance management control and reduce labour needs. By implementing automatic systems and herd management software, the industry can improve efficiency and potentially mitigate the impact of labour shortages.
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Southern Australia's role
Southern Australia is expected to play a significant role in driving increases in Australia's cattle numbers. This includes contributions from New South Wales, Southern Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria.
In particular, New South Wales is anticipated to make a substantial impact, with other southern states also expected to contribute to varying degrees. The Fitzroy Basin, located in the southern region, is a notable area for cattle, with a total of 2,523,546 head of cattle in 2021, making it the region with the most cattle in Australia after New South Wales and Victoria.
The inclusion of smaller farms in Southern Australia, which often have a significant number of cattle, can also impact herd size calculations. These smaller farms, with revenues under $40,000 from farming, were previously not surveyed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) but are now being included in the data. This change in methodology has resulted in an increase of approximately 4.2 to 4.3 million head of cattle in the national herd estimate.
Additionally, Southern Australia has experienced favourable seasonal conditions, including continued rainfall, which will contribute to the supply of both young and slaughter-weight cattle over the next few years. The region's ability to maintain optimal conditions for cattle production will be a key factor in sustaining the growth of the national herd.
Overall, Southern Australia's role in increasing cattle numbers and providing optimal conditions for cattle production is significant. The region's contributions will help Australia's cattle industry maintain its optimism and positively impact both the domestic and international markets.
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Changes in methodology for herd size calculation
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has changed its methodology for calculating the national herd size. Previously, the ABS used farmer surveys to estimate the size of the Australian cattle herd. However, in recent years, they have started using data from other sources as well to get a more accurate picture, especially by including smaller farms that were previously not surveyed. The new methodology has resulted in an increase of 4.2 to 4.3 million head of cattle in the national herd estimate, with the majority of these being beef cattle from smaller farms.
The change in methodology was implemented to reduce the burden on farmers and improve the accuracy of the data. The previous surveys only included farms with revenue above $40,000 from farming activities, but it was recognised that cattle on smaller farms also contribute significantly to the national herd. By including these smaller farms in the calculations, the ABS has likely improved the accuracy of its estimates.
The new methodology has important implications for the beef industry and related research and advisory agencies. It raises questions about the true size of Australia's beef herd and the levels of fertility and productivity within the industry. Additionally, it prompts a re-evaluation of the industry's environmental and emissions claims.
The Cash Cow project, led by Dr Fordyce, provides further insights into calculating herd size and efficiency. The project analysed the liveweight production ratio (LWPR), which measures the amount of liveweight produced per unit of feed intake. By comparing the LWPR of different herds, the project identified variations in efficiency, with well-managed breeding cattle groups in northern Australia achieving higher LWPRs.
It is worth noting that the change in methodology is not the sole reason for the increase in estimated herd size. The inclusion of smaller farms has played a significant role in bumping up the numbers. However, the new methodology is expected to provide a more comprehensive and accurate picture of the Australian cattle herd, allowing for better decision-making and research in the industry.
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Frequently asked questions
The average herd size in Australia has varied over the years. In 2021, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported 24.4 million cattle, while in 2023, the number rose to 28.8 million. By 2025, the national herd is expected to reach 29.6 million.
Australia's cattle herd size has been influenced by various factors, including natural disasters like droughts and flooding, as well as changes in the industry, such as labour issues and the retention of female cattle for breeding.
Australia's herd size is significant, and it is expected to impact the global market. The increase in Australia's cattle numbers coincides with a reduction in herd sizes in other countries, such as the US, which may shift from being a net exporter to a net importer.
The ABS previously relied on farmer surveys to estimate herd size, but they have transitioned to using data from other sources, including smaller farms, to obtain a more accurate picture. This change in methodology has resulted in an increase in reported herd numbers.
The outlook for Australia's cattle industry, particularly the beef sector, is optimistic. Despite challenges, the industry is expected to deliver high-quality beef in larger volumes, and the national herd is projected to continue growing.
