Damon Mcknight
Australia's carbon footprint is growing due to a variety of factors, including the country's dependence on fossil fuels, its export of fossil fuels, and its failure to transition to renewable energy sources. Australia has a disproportionately large global carbon footprint relative to its economic size and population, contributing to around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions. The country's emissions are expected to increase by 50% over the next decade, with the government's continued support for the fossil fuel industry. In addition, Australia's energy sector, including electricity and transport, accounts for a significant portion of its emissions, with coal being one of the highest emitters of greenhouse gases. There are also concerns about the accuracy of emissions data, particularly in the land-use sector, and the government's resistance to taking action on climate change, with a focus on economic growth instead.
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What You'll Learn
Australia's fossil fuel exports
The market for Australia's fossil fuel exports is concentrated, with 78% of liquefied natural gas (LNG), metallurgical coal, and thermal coal being imported by just four countries: Japan, China, South Korea, and India. Japan is the largest importer of LNG and thermal coal, while India imports the most metallurgical coal. Interestingly, all these major importers are also signatories to the Paris Agreement, committing to emissions reduction targets. This creates a tension between their continued importation of Australian fossil fuels and their climate goals.
Australia's role as a major exporter of fossil fuels has significant climate implications. The emissions resulting from the burning of exported fossil fuels are not currently attributed to Australia under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement reporting frameworks. This leads to a disconnect between the country's actual contribution to global emissions and its reported emissions. Additionally, Australia's fossil fuel exports contribute to global carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of Australia's total emissions coming from this sector. This means that the emissions occurring from the burning of exported Australian fossil fuels overseas are significantly impacting global warming.
There have been calls for Australia to reduce its fossil fuel exports and transition to alternative energy sources. The country has a unique opportunity and obligation to address the climate crisis through policies that manage a decline in carbon exports. This includes a suggested moratorium on new coal mines and the removal of subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. However, Australia's government and opposition have emphasized the economic importance of the coal export industry, and policies continue to support expansion in this sector.
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Government policies
Australia's carbon footprint is influenced by various factors, including government policies that impact the country's domestic emissions and its role as a major exporter of fossil fuels.
The Australian government's approach to climate change and energy has been a subject of debate, with critics arguing that the country has been slow to transition away from fossil fuels. While the Coalition government claimed in 2019 that it had reduced greenhouse gas emissions inherited from the previous Labor administration, this claim has been disputed. The Labor government had introduced a carbon tax, which was a step towards addressing carbon emissions. However, historically, the Howard government, followed by the Keating government, resisted taking strong action on global warming due to potential economic impacts. This stance created conflicts with other nations advocating for legally binding emissions targets during the negotiations leading up to the Kyoto treaty.
The current government's projections for increasing fossil fuel exports through 2035 indicate a continued reliance on the fossil fuel industry. The government's support for the sector, including the approval of projects like the Woodside Energy LNG plant in Western Australia, contributes to Australia's carbon footprint.
Additionally, discrepancies have been noted between federal and state government data on land clearing and emissions, particularly in Queensland. The federal government's estimates of land clearing in Queensland were significantly lower than the data identified by the Statewide Landcover and Trees Study (SLATS). This discrepancy raises questions about the accuracy of emissions estimates from the land-use sector.
The state of Victoria, on the other hand, has been proactive in pursuing GHG reductions through initiatives like "The Greenhouse Challenge" in 1989.
The Australian government's policies and actions have direct implications for the country's carbon footprint, and its position on fossil fuels and emissions reductions continues to be a subject of discussion and scrutiny.
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LNG shipbuilding industry
Australia's LNG shipbuilding industry is a significant contributor to the country's carbon footprint. Australia is among the largest fossil fuel exporters globally, with its fossil fuel exports accounting for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions.
The LNG shipbuilding industry in Australia appears to be expanding, with a focus on building new carriers. This expansion is occurring despite the global shift towards a low-carbon economy, and it puts the industry in an oversupply situation. By 2030, the surplus in LNG shipping capacity is expected to grow to 40% beyond what is required, equivalent to 275 modern carriers. This trend is evident even under conservative scenarios that align with government policies.
The use of LNG as a marine fuel has climate implications. While LNG-powered ships emit approximately 25% less carbon dioxide than those using conventional marine fuels for the same propulsion power, LNG is mostly methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Methane traps 86 times more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. Additionally, the most popular LNG marine engine technology is also the leakiest, resulting in 70-82% more life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions than marine gas oil (MGO).
To address the carbon footprint of the LNG shipbuilding industry, some initiatives are being undertaken. A joint development project by Lloyd's Register, Knutsen, HD Korea Shipbuilding and Offshore Engineering, and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries aims to measure and assess the carbon emissions throughout the life cycle of a newbuild LNG carrier. The study will provide valuable data for decarbonisation strategies by analysing emissions from raw material extraction, shipbuilding, operation, demolition, recycling, and waste disposal.
Furthermore, the use of green steel in shipbuilding can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Green steel is produced with low or zero GHG emissions, and its use can potentially cut emissions by 60% at the yard level when combined with renewable energy. The Sustainable Shipping Initiative (SSI) has released a report highlighting the importance of green steel in reducing emissions in the shipping industry.
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Coal power stations
Australia's carbon footprint is disproportionately large for its population and economic size, with the country responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions. The country is among the largest exporters of fossil fuels in the world, and its fossil fuel exports are projected to remain close to current record levels through to 2035.
Coal-fired power stations are a significant contributor to Australia's carbon footprint. Australia currently has 19 coal-burning power stations, with Eraring Power Station at Lake Macquarie, 1.5 hours north of Sydney, being the largest. The frequent outages and downtime of coal-fired power stations have been criticised for driving up energy bills, with wholesale electricity price spikes above $5,000 MWh. Despite this, the Victorian government has signed deals to keep two of the state's remaining coal-fired power stations open longer: AGL's Loy Yang A until 2035 and Energy Australia's Yallourn until 2028.
The Australian government's continued support for the fossil fuel export industry and its plans to approve new projects, such as Woodside Energy's North West Shelf LNG plant in Western Australia, are expected to increase the country's carbon emissions in the coming decades.
Australia's coal-fired power stations are not only contributing to the country's domestic carbon emissions but also to its exported emissions. The production and export of fossil fuels result in significant carbon dioxide emissions, which are often not attributed to Australia under current reporting frameworks.
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Population and economic size
Australia's carbon footprint is disproportionately large when compared to its economic size and population. The country is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of those emissions coming from its fossil fuel exports.
Australia's projected fossil fuel exports from 2024 to 2035 would consume around 7.5% of the remaining global carbon budget consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. This is estimated at only 200 GtCO2. Considering Australia's total carbon footprint, this figure rises to 9.1%.
Australia's cumulative fossil fuel emissions from 1961 to 2023 are estimated at 30 billion tonnes of CO2. This includes domestic production emissions for exported fossil fuels. With the federal government's continued support for the fossil fuel industry, this figure is projected to increase to 45 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2035.
In 2023, Australia exported 1.15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, with an additional 46 million tonnes of CO2 emitted domestically in the process of extracting, processing, and distributing those fossil fuels for export. This took the total to 1.2 billion tonnes.
According to 2020 figures, each person in Australia emits 15.4 tonnes of CO2 annually, which is three times higher than the world average of 4.47 tonnes. Australia's per capita emissions have decreased since 2019, but its ranking among OECD countries has risen from 13th to 11th.
The energy sector accounts for a significant proportion of Australia's emissions. In 2006, the energy sector accounted for 69% of the country's emissions, with agriculture contributing 16% and LULUCF 6%. Since 1990, emissions from the energy sector have increased by 35%, while emissions from LULUCF have fallen by 73%.
To reduce emissions, Australia needs to decouple its economic growth from CO2 emissions. This can be achieved through the implementation of renewable energy solutions, such as solar and wind power, and by improving energy efficiency.
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Frequently asked questions
A carbon footprint is the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases like nitrous oxide and methane emitted by the burning of fossil fuels, industrial production, and land use change.
Australia's carbon footprint is growing due to its fossil fuel exports, which account for 80% of its emissions. The LNG shipbuilding industry is also doubling down on building new carriers, and the government has supported the fossil fuel export industry.
Australia is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, and its emissions are set to increase by 50% over the next decade. This will consume 9% of the remaining global carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Australia can reduce its carbon footprint by transitioning to renewable energy sources like solar and wind power, improving energy efficiency, and implementing clean, renewable solutions and decentralizing energy systems.
